Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#54
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#70
Pace66.8#237
Improvement+1.1#120

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#119
First Shot+0.3#167
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#71
Layup/Dunks+2.8#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement+1.2#102

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#20
First Shot+5.1#36
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#33
Layups/Dunks+0.8#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#56
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 3.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.3% 44.2% 26.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.8% 30.3% 13.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 98.3% 89.6%
Conference Champion 35.6% 49.2% 24.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 6.9% 4.9%
First Round31.6% 41.1% 24.0%
Second Round13.3% 18.9% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 5.1% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.8% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 47 - 7
Quad 39 - 216 - 9
Quad 45 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 128   Utah Valley W 76-56 81%     1 - 0 +20.0 +5.3 +15.2
  Nov 13, 2021 110   @ UC Irvine L 50-58 59%     1 - 1 -1.2 -12.6 +10.8
  Nov 18, 2021 80   St. Bonaventure L 61-67 57%     1 - 2 +1.2 -0.4 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2021 122   Temple W 82-62 72%     2 - 2 +22.9 +20.2 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2021 109   Mississippi W 60-50 68%     3 - 2 +14.3 -6.2 +20.8
  Nov 26, 2021 228   Cal St. Bakersfield L 39-46 91%     3 - 3 -12.9 -28.6 +14.7
  Nov 30, 2021 71   Saint Louis L 82-86 OT 65%     3 - 4 +1.2 +5.5 -4.0
  Dec 03, 2021 121   Tulsa W 63-58 79%     4 - 4 +5.4 -7.1 +12.7
  Dec 07, 2021 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-48 91%     5 - 4 +20.6 +7.4 +15.8
  Dec 10, 2021 303   Prairie View W 97-60 96%     6 - 4 +26.2 +3.9 +17.1
  Dec 14, 2021 95   Santa Clara W 72-60 71%     7 - 4 +15.4 -0.7 +16.0
  Dec 22, 2021 52   Washington St. W 58-52 49%     8 - 4 +15.2 -4.3 +19.9
  Dec 28, 2021 78   Fresno St. W 65-55 66%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +14.7 +8.1 +8.4
  Jan 12, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 85-70 61%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +21.1 +9.0 +11.1
  Jan 15, 2022 193   @ New Mexico W 71-63 78%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +9.1 +1.5 +8.2
  Jan 18, 2022 244   Air Force W 62-56 92%     12 - 4 4 - 0 -1.0 -3.7 +3.4
  Jan 20, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 66-67 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 30%    
  Jan 25, 2022 66   Wyoming W 68-65 65%    
  Jan 28, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 59-60 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 76-57 96%    
  Feb 11, 2022 108   UNLV W 69-62 76%    
  Feb 15, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 65-54 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 73   Utah St. W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 22, 2022 33   San Diego St. W 61-60 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 108   @ UNLV W 66-64 56%    
  Mar 01, 2022 116   Nevada W 74-66 78%    
  Mar 05, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 68-71 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.9 9.7 12.6 8.1 2.8 0.5 35.6 1st
2nd 1.0 8.3 8.9 2.0 0.2 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.1 8.4 1.5 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 7.3 2.1 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.8 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.2 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.6 9.8 16.5 20.8 20.2 14.7 8.3 2.8 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-3 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.0
14-4 97.7% 8.1    7.2 0.9
13-5 86.0% 12.6    7.6 4.5 0.5 0.0
12-6 47.8% 9.7    2.5 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0
11-7 9.1% 1.9    0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.6% 35.6 20.6 10.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 94.5% 36.9% 57.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 91.3%
14-4 8.3% 81.1% 29.8% 51.2% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 1.6 73.0%
13-5 14.7% 61.3% 23.8% 37.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.7 49.2%
12-6 20.2% 39.4% 20.8% 18.6% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.3 1.5 0.1 12.2 23.5%
11-7 20.8% 21.1% 14.2% 7.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.1 16.4 8.1%
10-8 16.5% 12.4% 10.4% 2.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 14.4 2.2%
9-9 9.8% 8.4% 7.9% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 8.9 0.5%
8-10 4.6% 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.2%
7-11 1.6% 4.9% 4.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.4% 4.6% 4.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.3% 17.1% 17.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.0 6.8 9.2 5.5 0.5 0.0 65.7 20.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.2 3.2 17.2 40.9 31.2 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 22.7 31.8 18.2 9.1 13.6 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 6.4 12.7 12.7 17.5 39.7 12.7 4.8