Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#47
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#9
Pace69.0#168
Improvement-4.0#335

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#19
First Shot+10.0#3
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#304
Layup/Dunks+1.6#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#41
Freethrows+3.5#6
Improvement-3.3#338

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#77
Layups/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#291
Freethrows+1.9#63
Improvement-0.7#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.6% 6.3% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 16.9% 18.6% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.9% 81.1% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.8% 76.3% 58.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 94.8% 79.8%
Conference Champion 34.3% 37.2% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.5% 10.9% 15.6%
First Round72.5% 75.1% 55.9%
Second Round34.6% 36.4% 23.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.2% 10.8% 6.6%
Elite Eight3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 26 - 28 - 5
Quad 37 - 115 - 6
Quad 47 - 022 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 120   Oral Roberts W 109-80 81%     1 - 0 +29.7 +25.6 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-71 99%     2 - 0 -1.6 +2.2 -4.8
  Nov 19, 2021 117   Bradley W 66-60 73%     3 - 0 +9.5 -5.9 +15.3
  Nov 21, 2021 45   Creighton W 95-81 49%     4 - 0 +24.2 +26.2 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2021 217   Northeastern W 71-61 88%     5 - 0 +7.5 +1.2 +6.8
  Nov 27, 2021 209   Northern Colorado W 88-79 91%     6 - 0 +4.3 +16.8 -11.9
  Dec 01, 2021 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-55 96%     7 - 0 +20.7 +7.2 +13.3
  Dec 04, 2021 38   St. Mary's W 74-58 57%     8 - 0 +24.2 +12.2 +12.7
  Dec 11, 2021 48   Mississippi St. W 66-63 50%     9 - 0 +12.9 +1.6 +11.6
  Jan 04, 2022 244   Air Force W 67-59 93%     10 - 0 1 - 0 +1.0 +5.2 -2.7
  Jan 08, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 49-79 35%     10 - 1 1 - 1 -16.0 -10.1 -7.3
  Jan 12, 2022 73   Utah St. W 77-72 69%     11 - 1 2 - 1 +10.0 +9.8 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 78-42 91%     12 - 1 3 - 1 +31.3 +7.1 +26.8
  Jan 19, 2022 193   New Mexico W 80-74 90%     13 - 1 4 - 1 +2.1 +10.1 -7.5
  Jan 22, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 25, 2022 116   Nevada W 82-73 81%    
  Jan 28, 2022 108   UNLV W 76-68 79%    
  Jan 31, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 04, 2022 33   San Diego St. W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 08, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 11, 2022 78   Fresno St. W 68-63 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 108   @ UNLV W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 66   Wyoming W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 73   @ Utah St. L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 05, 2022 54   Boise St. W 71-68 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 5 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 9.9 13.3 7.2 1.9 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 8.3 9.1 2.4 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.4 8.8 1.5 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 7.2 1.9 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 2.6 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.2 0.2 5.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 9.6 16.5 21.1 20.6 15.7 7.3 1.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
14-4 98.2% 7.2    6.5 0.7
13-5 84.8% 13.3    8.5 4.4 0.5 0.0
12-6 47.9% 9.9    2.6 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0
11-7 9.4% 2.0    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 19.5 10.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 3.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 99.3% 33.5% 65.8% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
13-5 15.7% 98.2% 28.2% 70.0% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.2 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.4%
12-6 20.6% 94.6% 22.4% 72.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 3.6 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.2 1.1 93.1%
11-7 21.1% 84.8% 17.3% 67.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 1.1 0.0 3.2 81.6%
10-8 16.5% 67.3% 12.3% 55.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.7 1.9 0.0 5.4 62.7%
9-9 9.6% 46.4% 11.0% 35.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.0 5.2 39.8%
8-10 4.8% 23.5% 6.8% 16.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 3.7 18.0%
7-11 1.8% 9.6% 6.8% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 3.0%
6-12 0.5% 5.7% 5.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 78.9% 19.5% 59.4% 8.5 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.3 4.5 6.8 8.4 8.7 13.0 12.7 13.7 5.4 0.2 21.1 73.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 2.6 19.3 27.8 31.1 17.7 3.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 3.9 3.0 9.9 18.3 43.6 16.8 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 3.8 5.6 11.6 19.3 34.9 14.5 13.7 0.4