Wyoming
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#66
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#20
Pace66.2#259
Improvement-1.9#259

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#46
First Shot+7.3#19
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#316
Layup/Dunks+8.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows+1.7#61
Improvement-1.2#252

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#93
First Shot+3.3#71
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#216
Layups/Dunks+1.1#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows+2.4#33
Improvement-0.7#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 4.2% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.3% 45.4% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.3% 37.4% 20.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 93.8% 77.4%
Conference Champion 27.9% 30.2% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.5% 11.8% 9.2%
First Round36.8% 38.7% 23.1%
Second Round14.5% 15.3% 8.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 3.8% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 25 - 26 - 5
Quad 37 - 114 - 7
Quad 48 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 199   Detroit Mercy W 85-47 87%     1 - 0 +33.9 +15.3 +21.7
  Nov 14, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-45 99%     2 - 0 +18.4 +1.6 +17.1
  Nov 18, 2021 130   @ Washington W 77-72 OT 62%     3 - 0 +9.9 -3.1 +12.2
  Nov 22, 2021 96   @ Grand Canyon W 68-61 49%     4 - 0 +15.4 +7.0 +9.1
  Nov 29, 2021 170   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 79-66 71%     5 - 0 +15.2 +13.2 +3.3
  Dec 02, 2021 317   Denver W 77-64 96%     6 - 0 +1.1 +5.0 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 79-58 96%     7 - 0 +8.2 +2.0 +6.9
  Dec 08, 2021 2   @ Arizona L 65-94 10%     7 - 1 -7.0 +0.6 -6.5
  Dec 11, 2021 128   Utah Valley W 74-62 78%     8 - 1 +12.0 +19.1 -4.2
  Dec 22, 2021 76   Stanford L 63-66 53%     8 - 2 +4.4 +0.1 +4.1
  Dec 23, 2021 101   Northern Iowa W 71-69 62%     9 - 2 +7.0 -7.2 +14.1
  Dec 25, 2021 191   South Florida W 77-57 81%     10 - 2 +18.7 +12.9 +7.0
  Jan 15, 2022 73   @ Utah St. W 71-69 43%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +12.0 +6.5 +5.6
  Jan 17, 2022 116   @ Nevada W 77-67 58%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +16.1 +2.2 +13.4
  Jan 19, 2022 287   San Jose St. W 84-69 94%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +5.3 +11.6 -5.1
  Jan 22, 2022 193   New Mexico W 81-69 88%    
  Jan 25, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 65-68 35%    
  Jan 28, 2022 244   @ Air Force W 67-57 82%    
  Jan 31, 2022 47   Colorado St. W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 08, 2022 73   Utah St. W 72-69 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 287   @ San Jose St. W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 15, 2022 193   @ New Mexico W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 244   Air Force W 70-55 93%    
  Feb 23, 2022 47   @ Colorado St. L 71-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 116   Nevada W 78-71 76%    
  Mar 02, 2022 108   @ UNLV W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 78   Fresno St. W 64-61 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 11 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 8.9 10.9 5.4 1.2 27.9 1st
2nd 1.1 9.0 9.7 2.3 0.1 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.9 9.2 1.9 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 8.1 2.3 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.2 3.0 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.2 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.5 11.2 18.2 22.2 20.4 13.2 5.5 1.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.0
14-4 98.5% 5.4    4.9 0.6
13-5 82.6% 10.9    6.3 4.1 0.5 0.0
12-6 43.4% 8.9    1.9 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0
11-7 7.1% 1.6    0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.9% 27.9 14.2 9.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 98.4% 22.8% 75.7% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
14-4 5.5% 92.7% 23.8% 68.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 90.4%
13-5 13.2% 81.9% 19.0% 62.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 77.7%
12-6 20.4% 61.3% 15.5% 45.8% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.1 4.1 1.7 0.1 7.9 54.2%
11-7 22.2% 38.1% 12.2% 25.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.6 2.4 0.1 13.8 29.4%
10-8 18.2% 20.9% 7.9% 12.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.1 14.4 14.1%
9-9 11.2% 10.1% 6.4% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 10.0 3.9%
8-10 5.5% 6.1% 4.3% 1.8% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.1 1.8%
7-11 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.3% 12.4% 30.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 6.4 7.8 11.3 7.1 0.4 0.0 56.7 35.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.6 4.6 11.5 28.2 35.1 18.3 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 5.5 1.6 17.2 32.0 36.1 8.2 4.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 97.5% 5.7 2.0 9.6 34.5 31.5 13.7 3.0 3.0