San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#287
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#205
Pace67.0#232
Improvement-4.4#344

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#234
First Shot-0.9#214
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#279
Layup/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#13
Freethrows-1.8#303
Improvement-2.7#323

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#318
First Shot-3.7#294
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#297
Layups/Dunks-5.7#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#139
Freethrows+2.9#19
Improvement-1.7#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 76.0% 56.3% 77.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 8.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 20 - 60 - 12
Quad 32 - 62 - 18
Quad 46 - 28 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 170   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-76 33%     1 - 0 -0.8 +6.7 -7.4
  Nov 15, 2021 76   @ Stanford L 62-76 6%     1 - 1 -4.1 -0.3 -4.8
  Nov 18, 2021 236   @ California Baptist L 66-67 29%     1 - 2 -2.5 -4.4 +1.8
  Nov 20, 2021 17   @ Texas L 45-79 2%     1 - 3 -17.2 -20.2 +3.5
  Nov 23, 2021 209   Northern Colorado W 75-74 40%     2 - 3 -3.7 +3.4 -7.1
  Nov 30, 2021 234   South Dakota W 61-52 47%     3 - 3 +2.5 -8.8 +12.5
  Dec 03, 2021 347   North Dakota W 76-51 81%     4 - 3 +8.6 -4.3 +14.2
  Dec 06, 2021 253   @ Pepperdine L 69-82 32%     4 - 4 -15.4 -7.3 -7.4
  Dec 11, 2021 260   Pacific W 78-66 52%     5 - 4 +4.3 +0.1 +3.7
  Dec 17, 2021 245   @ Portland W 90-78 31%     6 - 4 +9.9 +17.2 -7.1
  Dec 21, 2021 95   Santa Clara L 57-79 16%     6 - 5 -18.6 -18.0 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2022 78   @ Fresno St. L 59-79 7%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -10.3 +3.1 -16.9
  Jan 15, 2022 47   Colorado St. L 42-78 9%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -28.5 -27.2 -3.9
  Jan 17, 2022 108   UNLV L 56-81 20%     6 - 8 0 - 3 -23.2 -13.2 -11.0
  Jan 19, 2022 66   @ Wyoming L 69-84 6%     6 - 9 0 - 4 -4.4 +5.7 -11.3
  Jan 22, 2022 108   @ UNLV L 62-76 9%    
  Jan 25, 2022 244   Air Force L 62-63 51%    
  Jan 28, 2022 193   @ New Mexico L 72-80 20%    
  Feb 01, 2022 78   Fresno St. L 57-69 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 54   @ Boise St. L 57-76 4%    
  Feb 09, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 56-72 7%    
  Feb 12, 2022 66   Wyoming L 64-77 13%    
  Feb 16, 2022 116   @ Nevada L 68-81 10%    
  Feb 19, 2022 193   New Mexico L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 25, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 53-74 2%    
  Mar 01, 2022 244   @ Air Force L 60-65 30%    
  Mar 04, 2022 73   Utah St. L 65-77 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 2 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 3.2 5.5 2.2 0.2 11.0 9th
10th 0.3 8.0 12.3 3.9 0.3 24.7 10th
11th 10.9 24.5 20.0 4.8 0.3 60.5 11th
Total 10.9 24.8 28.0 20.3 10.5 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 10.5% 10.5
3-15 20.3% 20.3
2-16 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.0
1-17 24.8% 24.8
0-18 10.9% 10.9
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.2%