Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 South Alabama 14.9%   8 - 5 2 - 2 15 - 10 9 - 7 +0.8      +0.2 170 +0.7 148 72.3 83 +2.4 134 -4.0 7
150 Texas St. 15.6%   15   8 - 4 2 - 1 15 - 9 9 - 6 +0.8      +1.1 145 -0.3 179 60.9 343 +3.9 112 -1.4 6
165 Louisiana 14.2%   6 - 7 3 - 2 13 - 12 10 - 7 0.0      -0.8 198 +0.7 146 75.8 41 -0.8 184 +3.2 2
173 Coastal Carolina 9.9%   5 - 8 1 - 4 12 - 13 8 - 9 -0.4      +0.7 158 -1.1 204 66.0 266 -3.6 231 -10.2 11
185 Appalachian St. 11.4%   7 - 9 4 - 2 14 - 14 11 - 7 -0.9      -0.9 203 0.0 166 61.4 340 0.0 168 +3.1 3
189 Troy 9.2%   9 - 5 3 - 1 15 - 11 9 - 7 -1.3      -3.0 260 +1.7 120 69.5 152 +2.0 140 +5.3 1
194 Arkansas St. 7.9%   8 - 4 2 - 1 14 - 10 8 - 7 -1.4      +0.2 172 -1.6 216 69.5 153 +1.1 153 +2.1 4
210 Georgia St. 5.3%   3 - 7 0 - 2 9 - 13 6 - 8 -2.2      -0.5 190 -1.8 227 73.6 67 -4.7 253 -18.0 12
220 Texas Arlington 6.0%   6 - 9 4 - 2 11 - 16 9 - 9 -2.8      -3.6 272 +0.9 145 65.7 269 -0.7 182 +0.9 5
233 Georgia Southern 3.0%   5 - 7 1 - 3 10 - 14 6 - 10 -3.9      -3.9 281 0.0 168 66.5 248 -2.3 206 -7.8 10
258 Louisiana Monroe 2.0%   7 - 8 2 - 4 12 - 15 7 - 11 -5.0      -0.4 189 -4.6 312 71.2 109 -1.1 192 -5.2 9
292 Arkansas Little Rock 0.6%   3 - 8 1 - 1 6 - 17 4 - 10 -7.8      -3.6 271 -4.2 300 71.3 108 -5.0 258 -4.4 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
South Alabama 4.7 12.6 13.0 13.2 12.9 11.4 10.4 8.8 6.9 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.6
Texas St. 4.5 14.9 14.2 13.3 13.0 10.9 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.1 1.5 0.5
Louisiana 3.1 31.6 20.7 14.4 10.0 7.4 5.4 3.8 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1
Coastal Carolina 6.2 3.9 7.6 9.7 10.8 11.4 12.1 10.7 10.2 9.0 7.1 4.8 2.8
Appalachian St. 2.8 37.4 21.1 13.9 9.6 6.3 4.6 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
Troy 4.8 11.9 12.8 12.8 12.5 11.9 10.3 9.2 7.7 5.3 3.5 1.6 0.5
Arkansas St. 6.3 5.4 6.9 8.5 9.1 10.1 10.9 11.2 11.8 11.1 8.6 4.9 1.5
Georgia St. 8.6 0.8 2.0 2.8 4.0 5.5 7.0 8.8 10.4 13.2 15.4 17.4 12.6
Texas Arlington 4.3 16.6 14.8 14.1 12.9 11.2 9.5 7.6 6.0 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2
Georgia Southern 8.4 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.8 7.3 9.0 11.4 13.8 15.7 16.2 10.2
Louisiana Monroe 7.6 2.0 3.5 4.8 5.9 8.1 9.6 11.0 12.6 13.4 12.9 10.4 5.9
Arkansas Little Rock 10.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.2 5.2 7.8 13.4 24.4 41.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 6.6 11.5 17.3 19.5 17.9 13.0 7.2 2.6 0.5
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.0 10.5 15.8 19.1 18.2 14.3 8.6 3.2 0.6
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.0 9.1 14.4 18.2 19.2 15.8 9.8 4.3 1.1
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.8 12.0 17.0 19.0 17.8 12.9 7.0 2.7 0.5
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.5 13.7 17.8 19.8 16.8 11.4 5.7 1.9 0.4
Troy 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.0 12.6 17.3 19.6 17.1 12.4 6.7 2.8 0.6 0.1
Arkansas St. 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 3.9 8.1 13.2 17.8 18.8 16.1 11.2 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.1
Georgia St. 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.3 12.7 15.8 18.3 16.0 12.7 7.3 3.5 1.2 0.3
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.2 1.6 4.9 10.2 15.4 19.6 18.7 14.2 9.1 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 6 - 12 0.4 2.3 6.3 12.0 16.9 18.6 16.7 13.0 7.9 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 0.5 2.9 7.8 13.6 18.0 19.1 16.4 11.1 6.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4 - 14 4.0 12.3 19.4 21.7 18.1 12.5 7.2 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Alabama 12.6% 5.7 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 14.9% 7.0 4.8 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 31.6% 17.9 9.5 3.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3.9% 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 37.4% 22.5 10.3 3.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Troy 11.9% 5.6 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 5.4% 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.8% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 16.6% 8.4 5.1 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 1.2% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 2.0% 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Alabama 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 4.8 0.8 85.1 0.0%
Texas St. 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.1 4.1 0.5 84.4 0.0%
Louisiana 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.5 1.9 85.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 2.7 90.1 0.0%
Appalachian St. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 88.6 0.0%
Troy 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 1.4 90.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.8 1.1 92.1 0.0%
Georgia St. 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.5 94.7 0.0%
Texas Arlington 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.2 94.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 97.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 1.0 98.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Alabama 14.9% 0.1% 14.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 15.6% 0.1% 15.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 14.2% 0.5% 14.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 9.9% 1.2% 9.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 11.4% 0.8% 11.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 9.2% 0.3% 9.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 7.9% 0.3% 7.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 5.3% 1.4% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 6.0% 2.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.0% 0.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.0% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0