Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#194
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#153
Pace69.5#153
Improvement+3.3#48

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#172
First Shot+1.6#130
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#286
Layup/Dunks+3.3#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#297
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement+2.4#52

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#216
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#336
Layups/Dunks-3.9#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#34
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement+0.9#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 80.3% 87.4% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 36.9% 45.6% 19.9%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 2.2% 9.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round7.8% 9.1% 5.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 411 - 215 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 11   @ Illinois L 53-92 4%     0 - 1 -19.8 -16.4 -0.1
  Nov 19, 2021 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-60 70%     1 - 1 +5.2 -1.7 +7.9
  Nov 26, 2021 145   Morehead St. L 51-75 50%     1 - 2 -25.4 -20.2 -6.3
  Nov 28, 2021 265   UMKC W 66-55 74%     2 - 2 +3.0 +0.1 +4.1
  Dec 04, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 95-82 87%     3 - 2 -0.6 +10.1 -11.1
  Dec 08, 2021 356   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-73 91%     4 - 2 -5.5 -0.4 -5.5
  Dec 11, 2021 357   @ Mississippi Valley W 82-77 94%     5 - 2 -14.0 -10.5 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2021 14   @ Texas Tech L 62-75 5%     5 - 3 +4.9 +6.5 -2.7
  Dec 19, 2021 244   Air Force W 68-46 71%     6 - 3 +15.0 +1.2 +16.0
  Jan 01, 2022 233   Georgia Southern W 74-56 68%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +11.6 -5.2 +15.6
  Jan 06, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 77-83 OT 35%     7 - 4 1 - 1 -3.5 -1.4 -1.6
  Jan 08, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 90-83 54%     8 - 4 2 - 1 +4.5 +9.2 -5.1
  Jan 20, 2022 220   Texas Arlington W 69-65 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 150   Texas St. W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 27, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 65-68 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 03, 2022 258   Louisiana Monroe W 78-72 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 165   Louisiana W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 10, 2022 189   @ Troy L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 149   @ South Alabama L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington L 67-68 44%    
  Feb 23, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 71-70 58%    
  Feb 25, 2022 185   Appalachian St. W 68-66 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 8 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 5.0 1.0 0.1 8.5 3rd
4th 0.7 6.0 2.3 0.1 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 5.4 0.4 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.8 1.8 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.4 5.5 5.1 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.1 7.5 1.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.0 2.9 0.1 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.9 8.1 13.2 17.8 18.8 16.1 11.2 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-5 97.6% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 73.4% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 34.9% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-8 4.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 26.5% 26.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 31.8% 31.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-6 2.5% 27.5% 27.5% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.8
11-7 6.2% 18.6% 18.6% 14.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.0
10-8 11.2% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 9.4
9-9 16.1% 11.1% 11.1% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 14.3
8-10 18.8% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 17.8
7-11 17.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 17.2
6-12 13.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.8
5-13 8.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.0
4-14 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.9
3-15 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.8 1.1 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%