Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#185
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#168
Pace61.4#340
Improvement-0.8#210

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#203
First Shot-2.5#262
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#68
Layup/Dunks-5.1#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#88
Freethrows-1.3#280
Improvement+1.0#116

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#82
Layups/Dunks-0.8#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
Freethrows+2.6#26
Improvement-1.8#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 14.0% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 49.3% 64.5% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 95.0% 81.4%
Conference Champion 37.4% 50.7% 27.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round11.0% 13.7% 9.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 36 - 66 - 12
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 90   @ Iona L 53-65 18%     0 - 1 -3.1 -11.6 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 58%     1 - 1 -1.0 +0.9 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2021 195   Charlotte L 66-67 62%     1 - 2 -5.0 -5.7 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2021 146   Delaware L 68-75 43%     1 - 3 -6.0 +0.2 -6.9
  Nov 23, 2021 152   Akron W 57-45 44%     2 - 3 +12.6 -14.6 +27.8
  Nov 24, 2021 79   Vermont L 63-65 22%     2 - 4 +5.2 +5.1 -0.3
  Nov 29, 2021 278   Hartford W 69-59 78%     3 - 4 +0.8 -6.6 +7.8
  Dec 10, 2021 102   @ Furman L 65-73 22%     3 - 5 -0.6 -1.9 +0.8
  Dec 16, 2021 10   @ Duke L 67-92 4%     3 - 6 -5.4 +5.7 -12.4
  Dec 21, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 50-70 9%     3 - 7 -6.0 -16.4 +9.7
  Dec 30, 2021 165   Louisiana L 55-71 56%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -18.5 -14.9 -4.7
  Jan 01, 2022 258   Louisiana Monroe W 77-69 74%     4 - 8 1 - 1 +0.5 +3.5 -2.5
  Jan 06, 2022 149   @ South Alabama W 72-64 34%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +11.3 +3.5 +8.1
  Jan 08, 2022 189   @ Troy L 53-68 42%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -13.8 -9.3 -6.6
  Jan 13, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 61-60 58%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -1.9 -5.7 +3.9
  Jan 15, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina W 84-76 OT 38%     7 - 9 4 - 2 +10.1 +14.1 -3.7
  Jan 20, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. L 68-69 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern W 63-62 49%    
  Jan 27, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 68-65 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-62 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 60-64 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington L 62-63 46%    
  Feb 10, 2022 233   Georgia Southern W 65-60 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 210   Georgia St. W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 17, 2022 189   Troy W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 149   South Alabama W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 25, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 66-68 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 6.4 11.8 10.3 5.6 1.9 0.4 37.4 1st
2nd 0.4 5.2 9.9 4.6 1.0 0.1 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 7.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.3 5.5 3.5 0.3 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 1.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.5 13.7 17.8 19.8 16.8 11.4 5.7 1.9 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-3 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
14-4 98.6% 5.6    5.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 91.0% 10.3    7.9 2.3 0.1
12-6 70.6% 11.8    5.9 4.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 32.2% 6.4    1.2 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.1
10-8 5.3% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.4% 37.4 22.5 10.3 3.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 21.7% 21.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.9% 25.6% 25.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-4 5.7% 20.9% 20.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.5
13-5 11.4% 18.3% 18.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 9.3
12-6 16.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.1 14.3
11-7 19.8% 12.3% 12.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.2 17.4
10-8 17.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.9 16.2
9-9 13.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 12.9
8-10 7.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.3
7-11 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.1 2.2 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 35.9 56.4 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%