Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#150
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#112
Pace60.9#343
Improvement+0.4#167

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#145
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#124
Layup/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement-1.2#259

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#179
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#148
Layups/Dunks+0.0#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#224
Freethrows-1.0#265
Improvement+1.6#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 17.5% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 93.8% 97.0% 86.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.1% 72.8% 43.6%
Conference Champion 14.9% 18.6% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 4.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round15.6% 17.5% 11.2%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 411 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 353   @ Incarnate Word W 75-57 90%     1 - 0 +4.9 +5.2 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 13   @ LSU L 59-84 5%     1 - 1 -5.9 +3.9 -11.2
  Nov 14, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt L 60-79 21%     1 - 2 -9.8 -3.5 -7.4
  Nov 19, 2021 297   Dixie St. W 85-65 80%     2 - 2 +12.1 +7.8 +4.3
  Nov 20, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 81-74 64%     3 - 2 +4.1 +3.1 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2021 167   @ Rice W 80-69 44%     4 - 2 +13.4 +3.2 +9.9
  Dec 05, 2021 317   Denver W 71-58 88%     5 - 2 +1.1 -4.7 +6.3
  Dec 15, 2021 335   Lamar W 67-47 91%     6 - 2 +6.0 -0.1 +10.4
  Dec 22, 2021 9   @ Houston L 47-80 5%     6 - 3 -13.0 -9.3 -9.0
  Dec 30, 2021 189   Troy L 63-78 67%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -18.8 -4.3 -15.8
  Jan 13, 2022 258   Louisiana Monroe W 80-56 79%     7 - 4 1 - 1 +16.5 +10.6 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2022 165   Louisiana W 72-68 63%     8 - 4 2 - 1 +1.5 -0.5 +2.0
  Jan 20, 2022 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 27, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 220   Texas Arlington W 66-60 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 185   Appalachian St. W 64-60 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 17, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-62 86%    
  Feb 24, 2022 149   @ South Alabama L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 189   @ Troy L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 9 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 4.4 6.1 3.0 0.6 14.9 1st
2nd 0.5 4.5 6.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 7.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.6 7.5 4.6 0.4 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.7 6.3 0.8 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.8 2.0 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 3.6 3.9 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.1 0.8 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.6 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.2 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.0 10.5 15.8 19.1 18.2 14.3 8.6 3.2 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 99.1% 0.6    0.6 0.1
13-5 92.2% 3.0    2.4 0.5 0.0
12-6 70.8% 6.1    3.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-7 30.5% 4.4    0.9 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
10-8 4.5% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 7.0 4.8 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 44.7% 44.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.2% 38.3% 38.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 2.0
12-6 8.6% 30.5% 30.5% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.1 6.0
11-7 14.3% 25.4% 25.4% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 10.7
10-8 18.2% 17.8% 17.8% 14.2 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.0 15.0
9-9 19.1% 12.1% 12.1% 14.4 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 16.8
8-10 15.8% 8.5% 8.5% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 14.4
7-11 10.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 9.9
6-12 6.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.7
5-13 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 0.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.1 4.1 0.5 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.1 2.1 4.2 1.4 8.5 47.2 33.1 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%