Troy
Sun Belt
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#189
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#140
Pace69.5#152
Improvement+5.0#17

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#260
First Shot-4.1#299
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#104
Layup/Dunks+0.2#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#300
Freethrows+0.2#158
Improvement+2.7#41

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot+3.1#77
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#295
Layups/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#111
Freethrows-0.1#200
Improvement+2.3#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.0% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 83.6% 92.0% 74.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 73.0% 44.2%
Conference Champion 11.9% 17.5% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.4% 3.2%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round9.0% 10.9% 6.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 67 - 8
Quad 49 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 118   @ Butler L 59-70 24%     0 - 1 -5.0 -5.5 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. W 69-65 3OT 48%     1 - 1 +3.3 -20.2 +22.6
  Nov 19, 2021 347   North Dakota L 72-74 88%     1 - 2 -15.9 -9.4 -6.5
  Nov 20, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 80-67 81%     2 - 2 +2.5 -3.3 +5.0
  Nov 22, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 83-78 OT 33%     3 - 2 +8.2 +1.6 +6.1
  Nov 28, 2021 35   @ Florida L 45-84 8%     3 - 3 -25.0 -22.7 -1.2
  Dec 05, 2021 304   SE Louisiana L 68-72 81%     3 - 4 -14.8 -8.8 -6.1
  Dec 11, 2021 290   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-72 64%     4 - 4 -2.1 -1.4 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 66-57 88%     5 - 4 -4.9 -6.2 +1.7
  Dec 22, 2021 196   @ Mercer W 69-65 41%     6 - 4 +5.0 -3.9 +9.0
  Dec 30, 2021 150   @ Texas St. W 78-63 33%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +18.3 +12.4 +7.1
  Jan 01, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington L 57-62 46%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -5.3 -10.5 +4.9
  Jan 06, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 69-59 56%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +7.1 -3.9 +11.3
  Jan 08, 2022 185   Appalachian St. W 68-53 58%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +11.6 +3.6 +10.1
  Jan 20, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 69-73 34%    
  Jan 27, 2022 149   @ South Alabama L 67-72 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 149   South Alabama W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 03, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern W 65-64 48%    
  Feb 10, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 81%    
  Feb 17, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 66-69 36%    
  Feb 24, 2022 220   Texas Arlington W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 150   Texas St. W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 3.4 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.3 5.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 7.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.7 7.3 4.1 0.4 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 7.1 0.8 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 1.0 7.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.2 4.3 4.5 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.2 0.9 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 1.8 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.2 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.0 12.6 17.3 19.6 17.1 12.4 6.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 99.7% 0.6    0.6 0.0
13-5 89.3% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
12-6 66.9% 4.5    2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 27.5% 3.4    0.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
10-8 4.2% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 5.6 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 29.8% 29.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 27.2% 27.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 2.8% 22.8% 22.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-6 6.7% 19.9% 19.9% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 5.4
11-7 12.4% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 10.6
10-8 17.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 14.8
9-9 19.6% 8.4% 8.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 17.9
8-10 17.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 16.7
7-11 12.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.1 0.3 12.2
6-12 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.8
5-13 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 1.4 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%