South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#149
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#134
Pace72.3#83
Improvement-4.2#340

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#170
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#151
Layup/Dunks+6.2#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#307
Freethrows-1.1#267
Improvement-0.1#175

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot+2.7#85
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#321
Layups/Dunks-0.4#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-4.1#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 18.4% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 90.9% 96.9% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 76.7% 48.9%
Conference Champion 12.6% 22.2% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.5% 3.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round14.8% 18.4% 12.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 42.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 9
Quad 410 - 216 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. L 58-64 22%     0 - 1 +3.1 -5.9 +8.9
  Nov 16, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 68-73 7%     0 - 2 +12.0 -7.4 +20.0
  Nov 25, 2021 172   San Diego W 68-67 55%     1 - 2 +0.6 -2.8 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2021 161   Hawaii W 72-69 53%     2 - 2 +3.2 -0.6 +3.8
  Dec 01, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 85-55 86%     3 - 2 +19.0 +8.6 +10.4
  Dec 04, 2021 136   @ Jacksonville St. W 74-64 37%     4 - 2 +14.3 +4.4 +10.0
  Dec 14, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 69-62 64%     5 - 2 +4.1 -4.2 +8.1
  Dec 17, 2021 171   @ Tarleton St. L 52-65 45%     5 - 3 -10.9 -11.3 -1.0
  Dec 21, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 84-69 82%     6 - 3 +6.1 +2.8 +2.3
  Dec 30, 2021 220   @ Texas Arlington L 87-89 OT 54%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -2.3 +10.3 -12.5
  Jan 06, 2022 185   Appalachian St. L 64-72 66%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -11.4 -7.9 -3.8
  Jan 13, 2022 210   Georgia St. W 74-65 71%     7 - 5 1 - 2 +4.2 -4.7 +8.6
  Jan 15, 2022 233   Georgia Southern W 73-67 75%     8 - 5 2 - 2 -0.4 +1.0 -1.2
  Jan 20, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 27, 2022 189   Troy W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 189   @ Troy L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 03, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 10, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 150   Texas St. W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 220   Texas Arlington W 71-65 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 3.9 5.0 2.5 0.5 12.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.4 6.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.9 7.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.7 7.4 4.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 6.5 0.8 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 1.0 7.3 2.1 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 4.0 4.4 0.2 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.5 0.8 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 6.6 11.5 17.3 19.5 17.9 13.0 7.2 2.6 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 98.7% 0.5    0.4 0.0
13-5 93.2% 2.5    1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 69.4% 5.0    2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
11-7 29.8% 3.9    0.7 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
10-8 4.5% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 5.7 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 40.7% 40.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.6% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.8
12-6 7.2% 30.2% 30.2% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-7 13.0% 23.7% 23.7% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 9.9
10-8 17.9% 19.9% 19.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.1 14.3
9-9 19.5% 13.4% 13.4% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.1 16.9
8-10 17.3% 8.0% 8.0% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 15.9
7-11 11.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 10.9
6-12 6.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.1 0.2 6.3
5-13 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 4.8 0.8 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.0 5.2 20.8 44.8 22.9 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%