Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#220
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#182
Pace65.7#269
Improvement+3.1#56

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#272
First Shot-3.9#291
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks-2.6#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#335
Freethrows-0.4#213
Improvement+2.9#34

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#145
First Shot+1.2#139
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#196
Layups/Dunks+4.7#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#250
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 8.1% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 19.7% 34.7% 11.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 84.8% 58.8%
Conference Champion 16.6% 27.7% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 2.2%
First Round5.1% 7.4% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 65 - 13
Quad 47 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 45-88 8%     0 - 1 -30.5 -18.7 -10.7
  Nov 16, 2021 141   Abilene Christian L 71-80 OT 44%     0 - 2 -10.1 -9.6 +0.7
  Nov 18, 2021 83   @ North Texas L 36-64 13%     0 - 3 -18.5 -26.0 +4.2
  Nov 20, 2021 33   @ San Diego St. L 62-68 7%     0 - 4 +8.0 +2.8 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 73   @ Utah St. L 61-80 12%     0 - 5 -9.0 -6.7 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2021 176   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-62 32%     1 - 5 +9.9 -3.6 +13.5
  Dec 11, 2021 335   Lamar W 56-47 85%     2 - 5 -5.0 -21.4 +17.1
  Dec 16, 2021 120   @ Oral Roberts L 62-71 21%     2 - 6 -3.3 -7.8 +4.2
  Dec 19, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma L 50-70 6%     2 - 7 -5.5 -12.5 +6.0
  Dec 30, 2021 149   South Alabama W 89-87 OT 46%     3 - 7 1 - 0 +0.3 +9.5 -9.3
  Jan 01, 2022 189   Troy W 62-57 54%     4 - 7 2 - 0 +1.2 -6.8 +8.3
  Jan 06, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. W 70-63 38%     5 - 7 3 - 0 +7.3 -0.7 +8.2
  Jan 08, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern L 73-74 OT 44%     5 - 8 3 - 1 -2.3 -1.3 -1.0
  Jan 13, 2022 165   Louisiana W 83-73 49%     6 - 8 4 - 1 +7.5 +13.9 -6.0
  Jan 15, 2022 258   Louisiana Monroe L 55-62 OT 68%     6 - 9 4 - 2 -14.5 -20.0 +5.0
  Jan 20, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 65-69 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 150   Texas St. L 62-63 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 60-66 27%    
  Feb 03, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 185   Appalachian St. W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 17, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 68-67 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 189   @ Troy L 62-66 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 149   @ South Alabama L 65-71 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 4.1 6.0 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 16.6 1st
2nd 0.3 4.5 6.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 7.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.6 7.3 4.5 0.4 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 6.8 0.8 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.8 6.5 2.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 4.0 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.2 1.6 4.9 10.2 15.4 19.6 18.7 14.2 9.1 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 98.1% 1.5    1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 88.3% 3.7    2.9 0.8 0.0
12-6 65.7% 6.0    3.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 29.1% 4.1    0.8 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
10-8 4.8% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 8.4 5.1 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 19.4% 19.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.6% 15.5% 15.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-5 4.2% 14.5% 14.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.6
12-6 9.1% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.1 0.8 0.2 8.1
11-7 14.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5 12.8
10-8 18.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.2 1.2 17.4
9-9 19.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.8 18.8
8-10 15.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 15.1
7-11 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.1
6-12 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.2 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%