Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#173
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#231
Pace66.0#266
Improvement-0.9#214

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#158
First Shot-1.7#237
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#32
Layup/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#265
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.2#101

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#352
Layups/Dunks+3.7#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#334
Freethrows+2.3#40
Improvement-2.1#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.1% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 47.5% 60.9% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 40.9% 54.5% 26.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 6.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 2.4% 10.0%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round9.4% 11.7% 7.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 36 - 86 - 9
Quad 47 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 18, 2021 256   @ UNC Wilmington L 53-65 58%     0 - 1 -14.5 -20.9 +6.4
  Nov 23, 2021 186   Valparaiso W 64-61 52%     1 - 1 +2.1 -7.0 +9.2
  Nov 24, 2021 88   Toledo L 70-79 25%     1 - 2 -2.5 +0.1 -2.7
  Dec 01, 2021 113   South Carolina W 80-56 42%     2 - 2 +25.6 +8.5 +16.3
  Dec 04, 2021 183   Winthrop W 74-64 61%     3 - 2 +6.6 -2.3 +9.0
  Dec 06, 2021 196   Mercer L 69-74 64%     3 - 3 -9.0 +1.6 -11.3
  Dec 12, 2021 115   Wofford W 60-59 44%     4 - 3 +2.2 -5.4 +7.8
  Dec 19, 2021 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 80-84 38%     4 - 4 -1.2 +14.2 -15.6
  Dec 30, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe W 94-64 75%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +22.5 +13.0 +8.7
  Jan 01, 2022 165   Louisiana L 64-65 58%     5 - 5 1 - 1 -3.5 -7.1 +3.5
  Jan 06, 2022 189   @ Troy L 59-69 44%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -8.8 -8.9 -0.2
  Jan 13, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 60-61 42%     5 - 7 1 - 3 +0.6 -3.2 +3.7
  Jan 15, 2022 185   Appalachian St. L 76-84 OT 62%     5 - 8 1 - 4 -11.4 +4.4 -16.1
  Jan 20, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-66 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 210   Georgia St. W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 233   Georgia Southern W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 149   South Alabama W 71-70 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 189   Troy W 69-66 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 70-71 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 73-68 65%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.4 3.9 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.7 6.5 3.3 0.3 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 6.3 0.8 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 8.4 2.2 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.4 5.4 4.7 0.2 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 6.9 1.0 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.1 2.9 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.6 0.3 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.8 12.0 17.0 19.0 17.8 12.9 7.0 2.7 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 77.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 57.6% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 20.2% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 24.5% 24.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.7% 28.9% 28.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.9
11-7 7.0% 23.9% 23.9% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 5.3
10-8 12.9% 17.7% 17.7% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.2 10.6
9-9 17.8% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.3 1.3 0.4 15.8
8-10 19.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 17.6
7-11 17.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 16.0
6-12 12.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 11.6
5-13 6.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 6.6
4-14 3.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.0
3-15 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 2.7 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 21.2 47.0 31.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%