Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#292
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#258
Pace71.3#108
Improvement-0.2#186

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#271
First Shot-2.0#244
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#296
Layup/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#317
Freethrows+0.9#106
Improvement+1.1#107

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#300
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#274
Layups/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#343
Freethrows+1.6#76
Improvement-1.3#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 2.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 4.1% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 58.4% 40.7% 66.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 44 - 47 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 133   Southern Illinois W 69-66 24%     1 - 0 +2.6 -5.2 +7.7
  Nov 17, 2021 131   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-82 12%     1 - 1 -14.1 -13.1 +0.7
  Nov 21, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. L 59-77 30%     1 - 2 -20.3 -13.7 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2021 295   Northern Illinois W 67-60 50%     2 - 2 -0.9 -3.7 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2021 121   @ Tulsa L 63-77 11%     2 - 3 -8.6 -6.4 -2.3
  Dec 01, 2021 47   @ Colorado St. L 55-86 4%     2 - 4 -18.5 -15.1 -3.2
  Dec 04, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 78-93 3%     2 - 5 -0.6 +9.4 -9.4
  Dec 08, 2021 77   Missouri St. L 55-81 12%     2 - 6 -21.3 -13.9 -9.2
  Dec 21, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. L 67-87 25%     2 - 7 -20.7 -0.8 -21.6
  Dec 30, 2021 233   Georgia Southern W 78-66 44%     3 - 7 1 - 0 +5.6 -0.9 +5.8
  Jan 06, 2022 258   @ Louisiana Monroe L 72-80 31%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -10.5 -3.5 -7.1
  Jan 20, 2022 150   Texas St. L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 220   Texas Arlington L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 27, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 66-76 16%    
  Jan 29, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 62-71 18%    
  Feb 03, 2022 165   Louisiana L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 258   Louisiana Monroe L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 10, 2022 149   @ South Alabama L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 12, 2022 189   @ Troy L 65-74 19%    
  Feb 17, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 62-73 14%    
  Feb 24, 2022 185   Appalachian St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina L 68-73 35%    
Projected Record 6 - 17 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.2 5th
6th 0.6 1.4 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 0.6 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 2.8 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.5 4.0 0.2 13.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 4.7 9.6 7.8 1.2 24.4 11th
12th 4.0 11.3 14.4 9.5 2.0 0.1 41.2 12th
Total 4.0 12.3 19.4 21.7 18.1 12.5 7.2 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 43.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 10.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 13.0% 13.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 7.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 18.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.0
4-14 21.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 21.7
3-15 19.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.3
2-16 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
1-17 4.0% 4.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%