Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#258
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#192
Pace71.2#109
Improvement-1.2#231

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#189
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#319
Layup/Dunks+6.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows-1.6#295
Improvement-0.4#201

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#312
First Shot-3.5#289
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#272
Layups/Dunks+3.1#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#350
Freethrows-0.7#248
Improvement-0.9#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 24.5% 35.9% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.6% 32.3% 12.0%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 6.6% 17.2%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round1.7% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 49 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 13   @ LSU L 39-101 2%     0 - 1 -42.9 -21.9 -17.2
  Nov 12, 2021 8   @ Auburn L 65-93 2%     0 - 2 -7.7 -2.5 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 96-66 78%     1 - 2 +16.9 +1.4 +11.3
  Nov 24, 2021 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-96 9%     1 - 3 -12.4 +1.1 -12.2
  Nov 28, 2021 63   @ SMU L 67-74 8%     1 - 4 +3.7 -2.8 +6.6
  Dec 04, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 84-71 84%     2 - 4 -2.7 -2.6 -0.6
  Dec 14, 2021 162   @ Stephen F. Austin W 82-69 23%     3 - 4 +15.7 +15.2 +1.0
  Dec 18, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 74-65 72%     4 - 4 -2.0 -2.4 +0.4
  Dec 20, 2021 335   @ Lamar W 80-77 65%     5 - 4 -5.9 +0.5 -6.5
  Dec 30, 2021 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 64-94 25%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -27.9 -10.2 -16.9
  Jan 01, 2022 185   @ Appalachian St. L 69-77 26%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -6.4 +2.2 -9.1
  Jan 06, 2022 292   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-72 69%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -2.3 +2.4 -4.7
  Jan 08, 2022 194   Arkansas St. L 83-90 46%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -10.9 +3.1 -13.6
  Jan 13, 2022 150   @ Texas St. L 56-80 21%     6 - 8 1 - 4 -20.7 -9.4 -14.1
  Jan 15, 2022 220   @ Texas Arlington W 62-55 OT 32%     7 - 8 2 - 4 +6.7 -4.6 +11.8
  Jan 20, 2022 189   Troy L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 22, 2022 149   South Alabama L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 233   Georgia Southern W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 210   Georgia St. L 76-77 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 72-78 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 75-74 49%    
  Feb 10, 2022 220   Texas Arlington W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 150   Texas St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 17, 2022 165   Louisiana L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 19, 2022 165   @ Louisiana L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 210   @ Georgia St. L 74-79 30%    
  Feb 25, 2022 233   @ Georgia Southern L 68-72 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.8 1.5 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 4.0 0.4 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.8 1.4 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.5 5.9 4.5 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 7.9 1.0 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 7.7 3.5 0.0 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.7 5.3 0.4 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.7 1.0 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.5 2.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.9 12th
Total 0.5 2.9 7.8 13.6 18.0 19.1 16.4 11.1 6.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 91.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
12-6 66.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 29.1% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.1% 9.1% 9.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.9% 9.8% 9.8% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.6
10-8 6.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.0
9-9 11.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 10.6
8-10 16.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 16.1
7-11 19.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.9
6-12 18.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 17.8
5-13 13.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-14 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.9 1.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%