Preseason Rankings
St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#118
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#128
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 13.3% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 5.1% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 12.3
.500 or above 66.5% 73.5% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 70.6% 53.6%
Conference Champion 10.8% 12.4% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.7% 6.1%
First Four1.7% 2.1% 0.8%
First Round10.5% 12.4% 5.6%
Second Round3.0% 3.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.20.1 - 1.2
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.70.6 - 2.9
Quad 22.1 - 3.82.6 - 6.7
Quad 35.9 - 4.98.6 - 11.6
Quad 48.9 - 1.817.5 - 13.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 171   Bucknell W 77-74 73%    
  Nov 10, 2018 335   Jackson St. W 73-58 95%    
  Nov 12, 2018 268   @ Niagara W 84-75 72%    
  Nov 19, 2018 85   Georgia St. L 70-73 41%    
  Nov 20, 2018 95   Boise St. L 71-73 43%    
  Nov 21, 2018 184   Akron W 74-70 65%    
  Nov 28, 2018 162   Canisius W 75-72 70%    
  Dec 01, 2018 351   Delaware St. W 79-59 98%    
  Dec 05, 2018 284   Siena W 74-64 87%    
  Dec 08, 2018 65   Buffalo L 77-82 43%    
  Dec 18, 2018 124   @ Vermont W 70-69 41%    
  Dec 21, 2018 70   @ Northeastern L 70-74 27%    
  Dec 29, 2018 12   @ Syracuse L 61-73 10%    
  Jan 06, 2019 129   @ George Mason W 74-73 42%    
  Jan 09, 2019 106   Saint Joseph's L 73-74 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 267   Fordham W 72-63 85%    
  Jan 16, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island L 71-72 36%    
  Jan 19, 2019 107   Dayton L 71-72 58%    
  Jan 23, 2019 154   @ Massachusetts W 74-71 48%    
  Jan 26, 2019 130   @ Richmond W 74-73 42%    
  Feb 01, 2019 88   Davidson L 69-71 52%    
  Feb 06, 2019 182   @ Duquesne W 73-69 53%    
  Feb 09, 2019 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 75-74 62%    
  Feb 12, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 73-74 38%    
  Feb 17, 2019 129   George Mason W 74-73 62%    
  Feb 20, 2019 166   La Salle W 75-72 70%    
  Feb 23, 2019 267   @ Fordham W 72-63 70%    
  Feb 27, 2019 182   Duquesne W 73-69 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 208   @ George Washington W 72-66 60%    
  Mar 06, 2019 88   @ Davidson L 69-71 34%    
  Mar 09, 2019 71   Saint Louis L 66-70 47%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 13.5 9.9 - 8.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 3.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.7 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.3 0.3 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.3 0.1 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.2 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.1 6.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 11.6 11.5 10.2 8.0 6.3 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.9% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 94.9% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 71.2% 3.0    1.8 1.1 0.1
14-4 43.9% 2.7    1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.6% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 87.3% 43.0% 44.2% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.6%
17-1 1.1% 87.8% 44.4% 43.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 78.0%
16-2 2.3% 69.0% 30.3% 38.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 55.5%
15-3 4.3% 46.5% 24.9% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 28.8%
14-4 6.3% 26.9% 16.2% 10.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6 12.8%
13-5 8.0% 21.0% 15.3% 5.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 6.3 6.7%
12-6 10.2% 12.8% 10.7% 2.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 8.9 2.4%
11-7 11.5% 6.9% 6.6% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.3%
10-8 11.6% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.1 0.0%
9-9 10.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
8-10 9.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.3
7-11 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
6-12 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 3.1% 3.1
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.3% 7.5% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 88.7 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0