Dayton
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#71
Achievement Rating+6.3#86
Pace63.9#311
Improvement-1.5#253

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#40
First Shot+4.3#54
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#73
Layup/Dunks+7.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#267
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement+0.7#149

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#139
First Shot+3.2#75
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#333
Layups/Dunks+2.5#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows+2.5#33
Improvement-2.2#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 23.2% 17.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.1 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 3.0% 7.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round19.6% 23.0% 17.3%
Second Round4.1% 5.4% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 219   North Florida W 78-70 88%     1 - 0 +1.8 +4.7 -2.5
  Nov 10, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 76-46 98%     2 - 0 +12.2 -6.4 +17.0
  Nov 16, 2018 182   Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-80 84%     3 - 0 +7.1 +7.0 -0.6
  Nov 21, 2018 47   Butler W 69-64 40%     4 - 0 +14.5 +3.3 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2018 3   Virginia L 59-66 9%     4 - 1 +14.8 +14.5 -1.7
  Nov 23, 2018 35   Oklahoma L 54-65 32%     4 - 2 +0.7 -5.3 +4.7
  Nov 30, 2018 22   Mississippi St. L 58-65 32%     4 - 3 +4.6 -9.6 +14.1
  Dec 04, 2018 259   Detroit Mercy W 98-59 92%     5 - 3 +30.6 +17.6 +12.5
  Dec 08, 2018 16   @ Auburn L 72-82 14%     5 - 4 +8.3 +7.8 +0.4
  Dec 16, 2018 98   Tulsa L 67-72 57%     5 - 5 +0.1 +4.6 -5.0
  Dec 19, 2018 274   Western Michigan W 85-72 92%     6 - 5 +3.9 +6.9 -3.0
  Dec 22, 2018 217   Presbyterian W 81-69 88%     7 - 5 +5.9 +2.6 +3.5
  Dec 29, 2018 127   Georgia Southern W 94-90 73%     8 - 5 +4.3 +10.2 -6.3
  Jan 06, 2019 179   Richmond W 72-48 84%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +20.3 +0.8 +21.6
  Jan 09, 2019 255   @ George Washington W 72-66 82%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +3.2 -1.0 +4.1
  Jan 13, 2019 188   Massachusetts W 72-67 85%     11 - 5 3 - 0 +0.5 +3.3 -2.3
  Jan 16, 2019 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 71-76 31%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +7.0 +10.4 -3.5
  Jan 19, 2019 144   @ St. Bonaventure W 89-86 59%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +7.4 +12.5 -5.4
  Jan 23, 2019 132   George Mason L 63-67 75%     12 - 7 4 - 2 -4.1 -2.4 -2.1
  Jan 26, 2019 236   @ Fordham W 75-52 79%     13 - 7 5 - 2 +21.2 +7.2 +15.7
  Jan 29, 2019 184   Saint Joseph's W 75-64 84%     14 - 7 6 - 2 +7.0 +3.4 +4.3
  Feb 02, 2019 153   Duquesne W 68-64 80%     15 - 7 7 - 2 +1.9 +5.1 -2.6
  Feb 05, 2019 123   @ Saint Louis L 60-73 53%     15 - 8 7 - 3 -7.0 +1.0 -9.7
  Feb 09, 2019 136   @ Rhode Island W 77-48 57%     16 - 8 8 - 3 +34.0 +20.4 +18.1
  Feb 16, 2019 50   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-69 51%     16 - 9 8 - 4 +5.6 +11.6 -6.1
  Feb 19, 2019 80   @ Davidson L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 23, 2019 123   Saint Louis W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 26, 2019 188   @ Massachusetts W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 01, 2019 136   Rhode Island W 73-66 76%    
  Mar 06, 2019 193   La Salle W 77-66 87%    
  Mar 09, 2019 153   @ Duquesne W 73-70 62%    
Projected Record 20.1 - 10.9 12.1 - 5.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 8.7 6.2 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 17.1 16.4 1.3 37.4 3rd
4th 0.8 12.1 13.2 2.7 0.0 28.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 5.3 0.4 8.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 0.4 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.6 7.5 20.5 32.0 28.4 9.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 24.0% 2.4    0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 2.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.9% 30.3% 28.9% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.9 2.0%
13-5 28.4% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 21.6 0.0%
12-6 32.0% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 12.6 0.3 2.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 25.9 0.0%
11-7 20.5% 13.8% 13.8% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 17.6
10-8 7.5% 9.7% 9.7% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 6.8
9-9 1.6% 8.4% 8.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
8-10 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.5% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 7.5 7.6 1.6 0.0 80.3 0.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 11.3 0.1 0.3 1.7 10.7 43.7 37.3 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 4.0% 12.7 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 1.5% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.5