Dayton
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#70
Achievement Rating+7.5#90
Pace65.6#289
Improvement+2.5#28

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#70
First Shot+3.5#74
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#124
Layup/Dunks+6.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#284
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement+0.5#131

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#88
First Shot+3.9#60
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#251
Layups/Dunks-0.9#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#28
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement+2.0#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 32.6% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.9% 15.5% 6.4%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 11.4
.500 or above 95.1% 97.6% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 92.6% 87.6%
Conference Champion 23.4% 26.2% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.4% 5.2% 3.1%
First Round25.7% 29.7% 19.2%
Second Round8.7% 10.7% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.9% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Neutral) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 175   North Florida W 78-70 85%     1 - 0 +4.0 +5.0 -0.7
  Nov 10, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 76-46 99%     2 - 0 +9.8 -7.9 +16.2
  Nov 16, 2018 199   Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-80 87%     3 - 0 +5.7 +8.4 -3.3
  Nov 21, 2018 36   Butler W 69-64 33%     4 - 0 +16.6 +4.7 +12.1
  Nov 22, 2018 7   Virginia L 59-66 15%     4 - 1 +11.1 +12.5 -3.4
  Nov 23, 2018 24   Oklahoma L 54-65 29%     4 - 2 +1.9 -5.2 +5.9
  Nov 30, 2018 17   Mississippi St. L 58-65 35%     4 - 3 +3.9 -8.0 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2018 302   Detroit Mercy W 98-59 94%     5 - 3 +28.2 +15.8 +11.9
  Dec 08, 2018 8   @ Auburn L 72-82 10%     5 - 4 +11.0 +9.0 +1.8
  Dec 16, 2018 120   Tulsa W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 19, 2018 224   Western Michigan W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 22, 2018 306   Presbyterian W 83-65 95%    
  Dec 29, 2018 130   Georgia Southern W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 06, 2019 172   Richmond W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 09, 2019 279   @ George Washington W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 13, 2019 139   Massachusetts W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 16, 2019 80   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-66 41%    
  Jan 19, 2019 152   @ St. Bonaventure W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 23, 2019 170   George Mason W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 26, 2019 250   @ Fordham W 69-60 80%    
  Jan 29, 2019 103   Saint Joseph's W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 02, 2019 163   Duquesne W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 05, 2019 76   @ Saint Louis L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 09, 2019 113   @ Rhode Island L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 16, 2019 80   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 19, 2019 81   @ Davidson L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 23, 2019 76   Saint Louis W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 26, 2019 139   @ Massachusetts W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 01, 2019 113   Rhode Island W 70-64 69%    
  Mar 06, 2019 258   La Salle W 84-68 92%    
  Mar 09, 2019 163   @ Duquesne W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 20.2 - 10.8 12.0 - 6.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 7.2 4.8 1.9 0.4 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.0 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.5 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.6 0.8 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.7 7.4 10.7 13.4 15.3 15.0 12.7 8.9 5.0 1.9 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.8% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 96.1% 4.8    4.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 80.9% 7.2    4.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 49.0% 6.2    2.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.0% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.4 6.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 92.1% 47.9% 44.1% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.7%
17-1 1.9% 84.9% 43.6% 41.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 73.3%
16-2 5.0% 75.0% 37.5% 37.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 60.0%
15-3 8.9% 59.9% 32.8% 27.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 40.4%
14-4 12.7% 45.3% 27.0% 18.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 25.0%
13-5 15.0% 31.3% 22.0% 9.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.3 11.9%
12-6 15.3% 20.8% 17.3% 3.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.1 4.3%
11-7 13.4% 13.3% 12.0% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7 1.4%
10-8 10.7% 8.8% 8.5% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.3%
9-9 7.4% 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.1%
8-10 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5
7-11 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 18.4% 9.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.3 4.3 7.5 6.9 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 71.9 11.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.5 1.5 9.2 15.3 25.2 24.4 13.7 6.1 1.5 2.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 94.1% 6.1 20.6 17.6 23.5 5.9 14.7 11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 94.0% 6.4 4.0 14.0 20.0 16.0 10.0 16.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 2.0