Maryland
Big Ten
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#20
Achievement Rating+16.2#24
Pace66.3#248
Improvement+2.7#68

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#23
First Shot+6.0#35
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#82
Layup/Dunks+3.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#86
Freethrows+1.5#78
Improvement+0.3#171

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+6.3#24
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#82
Layups/Dunks+2.1#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#121
Freethrows+2.2#48
Improvement+2.4#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.8% 44.5% 17.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 5.3 4.7 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round74.0% 77.9% 70.8%
Sweet Sixteen36.3% 41.5% 31.9%
Elite Eight12.8% 14.9% 11.0%
Final Four4.7% 5.4% 4.2%
Championship Game1.5% 1.7% 1.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 246   Delaware W 73-67 97%     1 - 0 -1.7 -7.8 +6.0
  Nov 09, 2018 305   @ Navy W 78-57 96%     2 - 0 +15.4 +3.7 +11.5
  Nov 12, 2018 324   N.C. A&T W 82-59 99%     3 - 0 +9.8 +3.8 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2018 74   Hofstra W 80-69 84%     4 - 0 +14.8 +10.5 +5.2
  Nov 18, 2018 328   Mount St. Mary's W 92-77 99%     5 - 0 +1.0 +8.5 -8.3
  Nov 23, 2018 202   Marshall W 104-67 96%     6 - 0 +31.9 +9.3 +16.2
  Nov 28, 2018 3   Virginia L 71-76 33%     6 - 1 +14.1 +19.9 -6.6
  Dec 01, 2018 57   Penn St. W 66-59 81%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +12.3 +4.0 +9.0
  Dec 06, 2018 10   @ Purdue L 60-62 32%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +17.3 -1.6 +18.7
  Dec 08, 2018 106   Loyola Chicago W 55-41 83%     8 - 2 +18.4 -5.5 +26.0
  Dec 11, 2018 281   Loyola Maryland W 94-71 98%     9 - 2 +13.6 +14.0 -0.7
  Dec 22, 2018 53   Seton Hall L 74-78 79%     9 - 3 +2.2 +7.3 -5.2
  Dec 29, 2018 137   Radford W 78-64 91%     10 - 3 +13.5 +7.8 +6.6
  Jan 02, 2019 36   Nebraska W 74-72 71%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +10.7 +11.7 -0.8
  Jan 05, 2019 90   @ Rutgers W 77-63 73%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +22.2 +8.4 +13.3
  Jan 08, 2019 43   @ Minnesota W 82-67 58%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +27.4 +20.1 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2019 46   Indiana W 78-75 77%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +9.8 +16.2 -6.1
  Jan 14, 2019 14   Wisconsin W 64-60 56%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +17.0 +9.7 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 75-61 53%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +27.7 +15.7 +13.0
  Jan 21, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. L 55-69 22%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +8.7 -0.5 +7.4
  Jan 26, 2019 58   Illinois L 67-78 73%     16 - 5 7 - 3 -3.0 -2.8 +0.1
  Jan 29, 2019 63   Northwestern W 70-52 82%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +22.7 +9.0 +15.2
  Feb 01, 2019 14   @ Wisconsin L 61-69 35%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +10.4 +8.9 +0.3
  Feb 06, 2019 36   @ Nebraska W 60-45 52%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +29.1 +0.7 +29.8
  Feb 12, 2019 10   Purdue W 70-56 53%     19 - 6 10 - 4 +27.8 +6.2 +22.7
  Feb 16, 2019 8   @ Michigan L 52-65 29%     19 - 7 10 - 5 +7.2 -2.8 +8.7
  Feb 19, 2019 28   @ Iowa L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 27, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 70-66 62%    
  Mar 03, 2019 8   Michigan L 64-65 50%    
  Mar 08, 2019 43   Minnesota W 74-66 77%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 8.9 13.1 - 6.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.8 4.9 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.9 12.6 3.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 15.1 9.5 26.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 11.2 14.3 1.2 28.0 5th
6th 0.5 5.5 7.9 1.4 15.3 6th
7th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 7.2 21.2 33.9 27.2 9.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 17.3% 1.7    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 9.6% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.4 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 27.2% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.5 0.0 0.5 3.9 9.0 9.2 4.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-7 33.9% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 5.4 0.0 1.2 5.5 11.4 10.9 4.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 21.2% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 6.2 0.1 1.1 4.2 8.0 5.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 7.2% 99.9% 3.3% 96.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 0.9% 93.9% 1.4% 92.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 93.8%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 7.7% 92.2% 5.3 0.2 2.1 8.7 18.8 26.4 24.9 13.5 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 2.0 17.8 67.9 14.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 100.0% 3.1 22.9 50.2 24.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6% 100.0% 3.5 7.8 46.2 35.2 9.7 1.0
Lose Out 0.4% 84.9% 9.5 0.9 9.4 33.0 30.2 8.5 2.8