Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#247
Achievement Rating-3.2#208
Pace55.8#352
Improvement+0.8#139

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#267
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#219
Layup/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#64
Freethrows-4.6#350
Improvement-9.2#353

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#247
Layups/Dunks-3.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#211
Freethrows+2.5#29
Improvement+10.0#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 12.9% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 65.8% 81.7% 46.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 100.0% 95.5%
Conference Champion 25.4% 35.9% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.5% 3.1% 4.0%
First Round9.8% 11.3% 8.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 78   @ Providence L 67-77 10%     0 - 1 -1.0 +11.6 -14.1
  Nov 08, 2018 255   @ George Washington W 69-61 41%     1 - 1 +5.2 +9.1 -2.5
  Nov 16, 2018 267   Norfolk St. W 61-58 54%     2 - 1 -3.0 -5.6 +3.1
  Nov 18, 2018 225   Holy Cross L 45-57 45%     2 - 2 -16.0 -14.6 -5.8
  Nov 21, 2018 159   Lehigh L 69-80 40%     2 - 3 -13.5 -0.1 -14.8
  Nov 24, 2018 156   Colgate L 79-84 39%     2 - 4 -7.2 +8.7 -16.3
  Nov 28, 2018 74   @ Hofstra L 86-94 10%     2 - 5 +1.3 +10.6 -9.1
  Dec 01, 2018 120   Harvard W 67-64 29%     3 - 5 +3.8 +1.8 +2.4
  Dec 05, 2018 144   @ St. Bonaventure L 40-82 19%     3 - 6 -37.6 -22.2 -21.3
  Dec 08, 2018 273   @ Robert Morris W 74-71 45%     4 - 6 -0.7 +13.2 -13.5
  Dec 18, 2018 128   College of Charleston L 58-83 30%     4 - 7 -24.7 -7.4 -21.1
  Dec 22, 2018 225   @ Holy Cross L 57-60 35%     4 - 8 -4.3 +0.7 -5.9
  Dec 29, 2018 328   Cal Poly W 75-54 80%     5 - 8 +7.0 +5.5 +4.1
  Jan 03, 2019 307   @ St. Peter's L 60-65 54%     5 - 9 0 - 1 -11.0 +4.1 -16.5
  Jan 05, 2019 239   Canisius L 66-70 59%     5 - 10 0 - 2 -11.3 -9.5 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2019 244   @ Marist W 71-66 39%     6 - 10 1 - 2 +2.8 +1.4 +1.8
  Jan 14, 2019 260   Monmouth L 60-63 63%     6 - 11 1 - 3 -11.5 -9.3 -2.4
  Jan 17, 2019 299   Niagara W 66-57 70%     7 - 11 2 - 3 -1.4 -8.1 +7.5
  Jan 24, 2019 285   @ Fairfield W 57-48 47%     8 - 11 3 - 3 +4.7 -13.8 +19.1
  Jan 26, 2019 311   Manhattan W 53-40 74%     9 - 11 4 - 3 +1.4 -2.6 +8.4
  Jan 31, 2019 260   @ Monmouth L 55-66 43%     9 - 12 4 - 4 -14.1 -11.2 -3.8
  Feb 02, 2019 217   @ Iona W 56-54 34%     10 - 12 5 - 4 +1.3 -6.4 +8.2
  Feb 04, 2019 285   Fairfield W 61-50 67%     11 - 12 6 - 4 +1.3 -1.2 +5.2
  Feb 08, 2019 311   @ Manhattan W 51-49 55%     12 - 12 7 - 4 -4.2 -10.1 +6.3
  Feb 10, 2019 194   @ Rider W 59-57 29%     13 - 12 8 - 4 +2.8 -8.9 +11.8
  Feb 13, 2019 217   Iona L 52-57 54%     13 - 13 8 - 5 -11.1 -18.5 +6.8
  Feb 17, 2019 215   Quinnipiac W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 19, 2019 307   St. Peter's W 60-54 73%    
  Feb 24, 2019 244   Marist W 63-60 61%    
  Mar 01, 2019 239   @ Canisius L 63-66 37%    
  Mar 03, 2019 299   @ Niagara W 68-67 49%    
Projected Record 15.7 - 15.3 10.7 - 7.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.4 14.4 5.5 25.4 1st
2nd 0.1 4.8 19.1 6.2 30.2 2nd
3rd 1.3 14.4 7.7 0.2 23.5 3rd
4th 0.0 4.2 7.1 0.4 11.6 4th
5th 0.4 4.5 1.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.9 1.6 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.0 11.8 27.4 32.6 20.7 5.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 5.5    4.4 1.1
12-6 69.3% 14.4    4.4 7.6 2.3 0.1
11-7 16.7% 5.4    0.2 1.6 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.4% 25.4 9.1 10.2 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 4.6
12-6 20.7% 14.9% 14.9% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.1 17.6
11-7 32.6% 12.4% 12.4% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.4 28.5
10-8 27.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.2 2.4 24.8
9-9 11.8% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.0
8-10 2.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 2.6 8.9 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 15.1 8.4 70.6 21.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 1.0%