Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#16
Achievement Rating+15.9#25
Pace67.6#217
Improvement+3.2#54

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#24
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#180
Layup/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#55
Freethrows+3.4#8
Improvement-1.7#262

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#16
First Shot+6.1#26
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#17
Layups/Dunks+1.1#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#83
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement+4.9#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.8% 39.5% 17.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 5.2 4.8 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round77.2% 80.0% 73.8%
Sweet Sixteen40.8% 44.6% 36.0%
Elite Eight15.4% 16.8% 13.6%
Final Four6.2% 6.9% 5.3%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 1.7%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 322   Nicholls St. W 85-72 99%     1 - 0 -0.2 +0.4 -1.4
  Nov 13, 2018 342   Southern W 104-54 99%     2 - 0 +32.8 +19.6 +11.5
  Nov 16, 2018 81   Vermont W 86-78 87%     3 - 0 +11.4 +18.4 -6.6
  Nov 21, 2018 7   Tennessee L 81-92 35%     3 - 1 +8.5 +8.3 +0.9
  Nov 23, 2018 24   Marquette L 74-77 57%     3 - 2 +10.7 +3.1 +7.7
  Nov 27, 2018 4   Michigan St. W 82-78 42%     4 - 2 +21.5 +9.9 +11.2
  Dec 01, 2018 50   @ Seton Hall W 70-65 63%     5 - 2 +17.0 +4.1 +12.9
  Dec 05, 2018 302   Central Arkansas W 86-41 98%     6 - 2 +34.2 +4.4 +28.3
  Dec 08, 2018 45   @ Indiana L 67-68 62%     6 - 3 +11.3 +4.3 +7.0
  Dec 12, 2018 48   Lipscomb W 72-68 80%     7 - 3 +10.6 +0.9 +9.5
  Dec 15, 2018 142   Kent St. W 83-70 93%     8 - 3 +12.0 +15.4 -2.2
  Dec 21, 2018 272   Robert Morris W 73-59 98%     9 - 3 +4.9 +4.2 +1.7
  Dec 29, 2018 5   Kentucky L 58-71 43%     9 - 4 +4.2 +1.0 +1.5
  Jan 06, 2019 60   Miami (FL) W 90-73 84%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +22.0 +22.6 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2019 91   @ Pittsburgh L 86-89 76%     10 - 5 1 - 1 +5.2 +6.2 -0.5
  Jan 12, 2019 6   @ North Carolina W 83-62 25%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +43.5 +18.3 +24.9
  Jan 16, 2019 97   Boston College W 80-70 89%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +12.3 +7.3 +4.9
  Jan 19, 2019 108   @ Georgia Tech W 79-51 79%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +35.1 +12.4 +21.7
  Jan 24, 2019 32   North Carolina St. W 84-77 73%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +16.1 +8.6 +7.0
  Jan 26, 2019 91   Pittsburgh W 66-51 88%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +17.7 -1.6 +19.8
  Jan 30, 2019 176   @ Wake Forest W 82-54 89%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +30.1 +14.4 +17.3
  Feb 02, 2019 6   North Carolina L 69-79 44%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +6.9 +2.6 +4.3
  Feb 04, 2019 17   @ Virginia Tech W 72-64 39%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +26.2 +13.9 +13.1
  Feb 09, 2019 18   @ Florida St. L 75-80 40%     17 - 7 8 - 3 +13.2 +8.9 +4.4
  Feb 12, 2019 1   Duke L 69-71 27%     17 - 8 8 - 4 +19.9 +1.7 +18.3
  Feb 16, 2019 30   Clemson W 56-55 71%     18 - 8 9 - 4 +10.6 -9.2 +19.8
  Feb 20, 2019 40   @ Syracuse W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 3   Virginia L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 27, 2019 97   @ Boston College W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 03, 2019 65   Notre Dame W 74-63 85%    
  Mar 09, 2019 3   @ Virginia L 57-66 19%    
Projected Record 20.7 - 10.3 11.7 - 6.3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 6.9 0.7 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.9 24.0 11.1 40.0 4th
5th 1.2 17.0 10.9 0.3 29.4 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 7.0 0.3 11.8 6th
7th 0.4 3.8 0.7 5.0 7th
8th 0.5 0.4 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 1.1 9.9 29.7 37.3 18.7 3.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 18.7% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.2 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.5 5.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 37.3% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 5.0 0.1 2.3 9.2 14.0 9.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 29.7% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 5.8 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.1 11.6 5.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.9% 99.9% 1.3% 98.7% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 1.1% 97.6% 0.7% 96.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 5.2 0.1 1.2 8.1 20.4 28.9 25.9 11.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 31.1 62.3 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 2.7 0.4 37.6 50.3 10.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 3.2 16.4 54.0 25.8 3.7 0.2
Lose Out 0.5% 94.5% 8.9 0.4 5.2 27.3 40.5 16.1 4.6 0.4