Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#35
Achievement Rating+14.0#36
Pace70.2#172
Improvement+1.1#98

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#35
First Shot+5.6#36
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#130
Layup/Dunks-0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#103
Freethrows+4.7#10
Improvement-2.2#327

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#39
First Shot+2.9#84
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#24
Layups/Dunks+0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#70
Freethrows-0.9#229
Improvement+3.3#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 15.5% 16.6% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.3% 72.3% 54.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.7% 71.7% 53.4%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 7.8
.500 or above 89.3% 91.1% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 63.4% 51.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four5.6% 5.5% 6.2%
First Round67.7% 69.7% 51.1%
Second Round41.6% 43.2% 27.7%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 18.4% 9.5%
Elite Eight6.8% 7.2% 3.4%
Final Four2.5% 2.7% 1.0%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 89.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 254   Nicholls St. W 85-72 96%     1 - 0 +4.7 +4.9 -1.0
  Nov 13, 2018 333   Southern W 104-54 98%     2 - 0 +35.1 +17.9 +15.5
  Nov 16, 2018 106   Vermont W 86-78 83%     3 - 0 +9.5 +16.0 -6.1
  Nov 21, 2018 9   Tennessee L 81-92 28%     3 - 1 +6.8 +11.3 -3.8
  Nov 23, 2018 34   Marquette L 74-77 49%     3 - 2 +9.0 +2.6 +6.5
  Nov 27, 2018 5   Michigan St. W 82-78 37%     4 - 2 +19.3 +7.0 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2018 56   @ Seton Hall W 70-65 50%     5 - 2 +16.9 +3.9 +13.1
  Dec 05, 2018 279   Central Arkansas W 86-41 97%     6 - 2 +35.4 +5.1 +28.9
  Dec 08, 2018 22   @ Indiana L 67-68 34%     6 - 3 +15.0 +5.9 +9.0
  Dec 12, 2018 68   Lipscomb W 72-68 76%     7 - 3 +8.4 -1.2 +9.4
  Dec 15, 2018 143   Kent St. W 81-68 89%    
  Dec 21, 2018 282   Robert Morris W 81-59 98%    
  Dec 29, 2018 20   Kentucky W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 06, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 09, 2019 121   @ Pittsburgh W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 12, 2019 6   @ North Carolina L 79-88 20%    
  Jan 16, 2019 104   Boston College W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 19, 2019 74   @ Georgia Tech W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 24, 2019 28   North Carolina St. W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 121   Pittsburgh W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 30, 2019 156   @ Wake Forest W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 02, 2019 6   North Carolina L 82-85 38%    
  Feb 04, 2019 11   @ Virginia Tech L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 09, 2019 15   @ Florida St. L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 12, 2019 1   Duke L 76-84 23%    
  Feb 16, 2019 50   Clemson W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 20, 2019 31   @ Syracuse L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 7   Virginia L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 27, 2019 104   @ Boston College W 76-72 64%    
  Mar 03, 2019 55   Notre Dame W 73-67 70%    
  Mar 09, 2019 7   @ Virginia L 59-68 20%    
Projected Record 18.7 - 12.3 9.3 - 8.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.1 2.1 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.7 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.9 0.8 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.6 1.5 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.8 7.0 10.6 13.7 15.2 15.0 12.6 9.2 5.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 85.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 51.9% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 19.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 2.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 2.9 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.7% 99.9% 6.6% 93.3% 3.8 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 9.2% 99.4% 4.2% 95.3% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 12.6% 97.9% 2.6% 95.3% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 97.8%
10-8 15.0% 94.0% 1.5% 92.5% 7.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 93.9%
9-9 15.2% 86.2% 0.8% 85.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 86.1%
8-10 13.7% 59.7% 0.5% 59.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.5 59.5%
7-11 10.6% 26.1% 0.3% 25.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.8 25.9%
6-12 7.0% 6.7% 0.1% 6.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.5 6.6%
5-13 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.1%
4-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.1%
3-15 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.3% 2.0% 68.3% 6.8 0.5 2.4 5.0 7.6 8.6 9.0 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 29.7 69.7%