Marquette
Big East
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#34
Achievement Rating+17.3#22
Pace71.4#136
Improvement+1.3#80

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#24
First Shot+6.9#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#157
Layup/Dunks-0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#59
Freethrows+3.4#30
Improvement+0.7#116

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#52
First Shot+3.0#82
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#56
Layups/Dunks-1.0#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#98
Freethrows+0.9#131
Improvement+0.7#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 26.8% 27.2% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.5% 84.9% 65.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.3% 81.7% 61.4%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.3
.500 or above 98.0% 98.2% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 80.7% 66.1%
Conference Champion 24.1% 24.3% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.5% 7.0%
First Four2.8% 2.7% 3.9%
First Round83.1% 83.5% 63.6%
Second Round52.9% 53.2% 34.6%
Sweet Sixteen23.0% 23.2% 10.9%
Elite Eight8.7% 8.8% 3.2%
Final Four3.2% 3.2% 0.5%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 212   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-42 94%     1 - 0 +19.1 -0.1 +21.5
  Nov 10, 2018 309   Bethune-Cookman W 92-59 98%     2 - 0 +21.4 +5.6 +12.4
  Nov 14, 2018 22   @ Indiana L 73-96 35%     2 - 1 -7.0 +4.4 -10.0
  Nov 17, 2018 274   Presbyterian W 74-55 97%     3 - 1 +9.7 -4.0 +14.6
  Nov 21, 2018 4   Kansas L 68-77 26%     3 - 2 +9.7 +5.6 +3.8
  Nov 23, 2018 35   Louisville W 77-74 51%     4 - 2 +14.8 +6.2 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2018 226   Charleston Southern W 76-55 95%     5 - 2 +14.1 +1.0 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2018 26   Kansas St. W 83-71 59%     6 - 2 +21.8 +12.6 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2018 213   UTEP W 76-69 94%     7 - 2 +0.9 -2.1 +2.6
  Dec 08, 2018 13   Wisconsin W 74-69 49%     8 - 2 +17.2 +3.5 +13.3
  Dec 18, 2018 292   North Dakota W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 21, 2018 23   Buffalo W 81-79 58%    
  Dec 28, 2018 333   Southern W 89-62 99%    
  Jan 01, 2019 45   @ St. John's L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 06, 2019 57   Xavier W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 09, 2019 41   @ Creighton L 80-82 44%    
  Jan 12, 2019 56   Seton Hall W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 15, 2019 89   @ Georgetown W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 20, 2019 72   Providence W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 23, 2019 101   DePaul W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 57   @ Xavier W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 30, 2019 36   @ Butler L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 05, 2019 45   St. John's W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 27   Villanova W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 12, 2019 101   @ DePaul W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 20, 2019 36   Butler W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 23, 2019 72   @ Providence W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 27, 2019 27   @ Villanova L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 03, 2019 41   Creighton W 83-79 66%    
  Mar 06, 2019 56   @ Seton Hall W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 09, 2019 89   Georgetown W 85-76 79%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 9.6 10.9 - 7.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 6.6 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 7.0 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 6.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 5.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.4 8.2 11.0 13.0 14.3 13.7 11.6 8.3 5.1 2.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 99.2% 2.5    2.4 0.1
15-3 94.5% 4.8    4.2 0.6 0.0
14-4 79.1% 6.6    4.6 1.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 51.2% 5.9    2.7 2.5 0.6 0.0
12-6 20.8% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 15.6 6.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 2.1 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 35.4% 64.5% 2.8 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.3% 99.9% 30.2% 69.7% 3.5 0.0 1.2 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.6% 99.7% 24.9% 74.9% 4.4 0.2 2.3 4.2 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 13.7% 99.2% 20.3% 78.9% 5.4 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.2 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-7 14.3% 97.9% 15.7% 82.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.0 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.6%
10-8 13.0% 94.4% 12.9% 81.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.2 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 93.6%
9-9 11.0% 86.1% 9.8% 76.2% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 84.5%
8-10 8.2% 60.6% 6.5% 54.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 57.9%
7-11 5.4% 26.6% 4.1% 22.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 23.5%
6-12 3.2% 8.8% 2.8% 6.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 6.2%
5-13 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.5%
4-14 0.7% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1%
3-15 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.5% 17.3% 67.2% 6.0 1.3 5.1 8.7 11.7 12.3 11.9 10.3 8.0 6.9 3.9 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.5 81.3%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0