Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#299
Achievement Rating-8.0#283
Pace73.4#76
Improvement-1.5#252

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#210
First Shot-2.0#240
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#106
Layup/Dunks-4.1#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement+2.8#48

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#336
First Shot-6.6#337
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#208
Layups/Dunks-6.2#347
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#252
Freethrows+1.5#76
Improvement-4.4#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 5.2% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 1.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.6% 21.3% 60.3%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 1.6%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2018 133   St. Bonaventure W 80-72 24%     1 - 0 +7.5 +7.7 -0.4
  Nov 14, 2018 116   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-75 9%     1 - 1 -6.3 -4.8 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2018 298   @ Wyoming W 72-67 39%     2 - 1 -0.1 -6.0 +5.7
  Nov 23, 2018 284   Grambling St. L 68-74 57%     2 - 2 -15.7 -10.4 -4.9
  Nov 24, 2018 262   St. Francis Brooklyn L 63-75 53%     2 - 3 -20.6 -13.0 -7.4
  Nov 30, 2018 240   @ St. Francis (PA) L 75-79 28%     2 - 4 -5.9 -8.9 +3.5
  Dec 03, 2018 91   @ Pittsburgh W 71-70 7%     3 - 4 +9.2 -2.7 +11.8
  Dec 09, 2018 347   New Hampshire W 71-67 83%     4 - 4 -14.0 -4.6 -9.3
  Dec 16, 2018 210   Cornell W 77-74 42%     5 - 4 -2.7 +7.2 -9.7
  Dec 19, 2018 306   @ Cleveland St. L 60-82 41%     5 - 5 -27.7 -19.3 -7.5
  Dec 22, 2018 246   @ Army W 78-66 30%     6 - 5 +9.7 -3.5 +11.6
  Dec 29, 2018 261   Norfolk St. W 83-75 53%     7 - 5 -0.5 +1.7 -2.7
  Dec 31, 2018 293   Albany L 74-79 59%     7 - 6 -15.2 -3.8 -11.3
  Jan 05, 2019 308   @ Manhattan L 80-90 42%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -15.7 +13.0 -29.2
  Jan 07, 2019 286   @ Fairfield L 59-77 36%     7 - 8 0 - 2 -22.3 -16.7 -4.8
  Jan 11, 2019 222   Iona W 95-90 44%     8 - 8 1 - 2 -1.3 +5.5 -7.3
  Jan 13, 2019 195   Rider L 84-104 38%     8 - 9 1 - 3 -24.8 +0.9 -23.7
  Jan 17, 2019 251   @ Siena L 57-66 31%     8 - 10 1 - 4 -11.6 -11.4 -1.1
  Jan 19, 2019 211   @ Quinnipiac W 75-72 23%     9 - 10 2 - 4 +2.7 +8.2 -5.1
  Jan 22, 2019 310   St. Peter's L 72-74 64%     9 - 11 2 - 5 -13.5 +3.0 -16.7
  Jan 26, 2019 271   Monmouth W 75-48 55%     10 - 11 3 - 5 +18.0 +9.6 +11.3
  Jan 30, 2019 247   Canisius W 78-70 50%     11 - 11 4 - 5 +0.1 +3.6 -3.1
  Feb 03, 2019 211   Quinnipiac L 73-84 42%     11 - 12 4 - 6 -16.8 +1.3 -19.0
  Feb 08, 2019 235   @ Marist L 58-79 28%     11 - 13 4 - 7 -22.7 -6.5 -20.0
  Feb 10, 2019 222   @ Iona L 76-79 25%     11 - 14 4 - 8 -3.7 -2.0 -1.6
  Feb 15, 2019 308   Manhattan L 60-64 63%     11 - 15 4 - 9 -15.2 -2.6 -13.3
  Feb 17, 2019 286   Fairfield W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 22, 2019 195   @ Rider L 77-86 20%    
  Feb 24, 2019 310   @ St. Peter's L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 27, 2019 247   @ Canisius L 75-81 29%    
  Mar 03, 2019 251   Siena W 68-67 52%    
Projected Record 13.0 - 18.0 6.0 - 12.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 0.3 2.1 7th
8th 3.9 4.0 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 1.6 18.0 18.2 2.3 40.2 9th
10th 0.8 14.2 15.1 1.3 0.0 31.4 10th
11th 6.8 9.8 1.1 0.0 17.7 11th
Total 7.6 25.6 34.2 23.5 8.0 1.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 1.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-10 8.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.7
7-11 23.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.6 22.9
6-12 34.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.7 33.5
5-13 25.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 25.3
4-14 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.9 13.1 86.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 5.0%