Yale
Ivy League
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#101
Achievement Rating+8.0#83
Pace77.3#41
Improvement-0.5#220

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#109
First Shot+5.0#51
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#317
Layup/Dunks+5.9#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows-0.9#220
Improvement-0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#90
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#82
Layups/Dunks+0.1#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#80
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement-0.4#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.2% 29.5% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 98.6% 99.2% 95.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 92.9% 87.7%
Conference Champion 34.3% 35.8% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.4%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round27.7% 29.0% 21.3%
Second Round5.9% 6.3% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 179   California W 76-59 73%     1 - 0 +15.8 -3.4 +18.3
  Nov 17, 2018 116   @ Memphis L 102-109 43%     1 - 1 +0.0 +2.9 -0.8
  Nov 21, 2018 109   @ Vermont L 70-79 40%     1 - 2 -1.4 +1.4 -3.2
  Nov 28, 2018 335   @ Bryant W 103-61 91%     2 - 2 +32.4 +14.8 +14.3
  Dec 01, 2018 46   Miami (FL) W 77-73 32%     3 - 2 +13.9 +3.9 +9.7
  Dec 05, 2018 149   Lehigh W 97-87 76%     4 - 2 +7.8 +12.6 -5.7
  Dec 08, 2018 1   @ Duke L 58-91 4%     4 - 3 -6.8 -13.1 +11.4
  Dec 11, 2018 265   Albany W 71-63 90%     5 - 3 -0.8 -5.9 +5.1
  Dec 20, 2018 305   @ Monmouth W 78-68 83%    
  Dec 22, 2018 205   Iona W 86-75 84%    
  Jan 02, 2019 343   Kennesaw St. W 83-61 98%    
  Jan 05, 2019 324   @ Cal St. Northridge W 88-75 88%    
  Jan 19, 2019 178   @ Brown W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 25, 2019 178   Brown W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 01, 2019 93   @ Harvard L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 02, 2019 237   @ Dartmouth W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 08, 2019 190   Princeton W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 09, 2019 92   Penn W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 15, 2019 257   @ Columbia W 83-76 75%    
  Feb 16, 2019 231   @ Cornell W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 22, 2019 237   Dartmouth W 84-71 88%    
  Feb 23, 2019 93   Harvard W 75-73 59%    
  Mar 01, 2019 231   Cornell W 82-70 86%    
  Mar 02, 2019 257   Columbia W 86-73 89%    
  Mar 08, 2019 92   @ Penn L 74-78 38%    
  Mar 09, 2019 190   @ Princeton W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 18.2 - 7.8 9.6 - 4.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.8 10.3 10.9 5.9 1.5 34.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.3 10.8 6.4 1.1 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 7.1 7.9 2.8 0.2 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.6 8.1 12.4 16.9 18.4 16.9 12.0 5.9 1.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
13-1 100.0% 5.9    5.7 0.2
12-2 91.0% 10.9    8.4 2.4 0.1
11-3 61.1% 10.3    5.3 4.4 0.6 0.0
10-4 26.1% 4.8    1.3 2.3 1.0 0.1
9-5 5.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 22.3 9.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.5% 71.0% 58.1% 12.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 30.7%
13-1 5.9% 56.6% 49.3% 7.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.6 14.5%
12-2 12.0% 46.6% 43.7% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 5.2%
11-3 16.9% 37.5% 36.7% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 10.5 1.3%
10-4 18.4% 29.1% 29.0% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.1 0.3%
9-5 16.9% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.8 0.0%
8-6 12.4% 16.0% 16.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.4
7-7 8.1% 5.4% 5.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.7
6-8 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-9 2.1% 2.1
4-10 0.9% 0.9
3-11 0.3% 0.3
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 28.2% 27.0% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.6 8.3 8.5 5.2 1.3 0.1 71.8 1.6%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 10.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 4.6 10.5 8.2 21.5 36.8 15.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 37.1% 10.8 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 7.4 14.1 11.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 37.2% 10.9 1.6 2.7 6.9 12.8 11.7 1.6