Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
12 Kentucky 99.1%   4   15 - 4 5 - 1 23 - 8 13 - 5 +14.9      +7.6 18 +7.3 26 69.4 173 +14.5 21 +17.4 2
22 Florida 82.5%   8   12 - 7 4 - 2 20 - 11 12 - 6 +13.2      +7.5 19 +5.7 51 64.0 308 +10.3 42 +13.1 5
29 Auburn 96.0%   6   17 - 2 4 - 2 24 - 7 11 - 7 +12.5      +6.4 33 +6.1 37 72.0 101 +17.6 9 +13.5 4
32 LSU 94.3%   7   15 - 4 6 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 5 +12.2      +10.3 5 +1.9 118 73.0 85 +13.5 25 +24.6 1
34 Alabama 59.3%   10   12 - 7 4 - 2 19 - 12 11 - 7 +11.6      +5.9 38 +5.7 48 85.7 3 +9.2 57 +14.2 3
38 Arkansas 81.3%   9   15 - 4 3 - 3 22 - 9 10 - 8 +11.4      +4.0 67 +7.4 23 75.0 52 +12.8 30 +7.9 9
41 Mississippi St. 35.2%   12 - 7 3 - 3 19 - 12 10 - 8 +10.9      +6.9 25 +3.9 76 64.0 309 +7.7 75 +9.2 8
44 Tennessee 47.4%   11   12 - 7 4 - 2 18 - 13 10 - 8 +10.4      +3.2 84 +7.3 25 64.7 296 +9.0 64 +10.1 6
79 Missouri 3.3%   9 - 10 1 - 5 15 - 16 7 - 11 +6.8      +2.4 112 +4.4 70 64.8 293 +4.6 105 0.0 13
83 Georgia 7.1%   10 - 8 1 - 5 15 - 15 6 - 12 +6.6      +4.5 55 +2.0 113 72.5 91 +7.9 72 +1.3 11
88 South Carolina 5.5%   11 - 8 3 - 3 16 - 15 8 - 10 +6.4      +2.4 111 +4.0 74 75.9 40 +5.9 91 +9.4 7
102 Mississippi 0.9%   10 - 9 1 - 5 14 - 17 5 - 13 +4.7      +2.1 117 +2.7 95 69.5 169 +4.5 107 +1.2 12
132 Texas A&M 0.1%   9 - 9 3 - 3 12 - 18 6 - 12 +2.1      -1.3 213 +3.4 86 62.1 332 +2.0 138 +6.9 10
161 Vanderbilt 0.0%   8 - 11 0 - 6 10 - 21 2 - 16 +0.1      +1.2 144 -1.1 199 71.2 121 -0.9 187 -8.8 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 2.3 43.8 23.6 13.3 8.3 5.1 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida 3.5 19.3 18.9 19.3 15.0 10.8 7.4 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Auburn 4.4 10.1 13.5 16.2 15.5 13.6 11.6 8.7 5.9 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
LSU 2.3 43.5 24.3 13.5 8.3 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
Alabama 4.3 10.0 15.3 16.4 15.5 13.7 11.4 8.3 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 6.0 2.4 5.7 10.1 11.0 13.2 14.0 13.8 12.2 8.9 5.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
Mississippi St. 6.0 2.1 5.5 9.3 11.5 13.9 16.0 14.8 11.5 8.3 4.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 5.9 3.3 6.1 9.2 11.2 12.9 13.6 15.2 13.0 9.0 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Missouri 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.5 8.8 14.5 19.7 18.3 13.6 10.8 2.4
Georgia 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.5 4.6 8.0 13.6 18.5 19.8 16.7 11.2 2.1
South Carolina 7.9 0.3 0.9 2.9 4.8 6.9 10.0 13.9 16.3 18.0 12.3 8.0 3.6 1.8 0.1
Mississippi 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.2 6.7 12.3 18.8 24.9 25.7 5.6
Texas A&M 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.5 5.1 10.2 16.5 22.0 24.2 15.9 1.3
Vanderbilt 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 5.9 15.7 74.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 13 - 5 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.9 14.9 22.1 21.6 17.2 7.6 2.0
Florida 12 - 6 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.4 11.1 17.1 20.8 20.4 14.3 6.8 1.3
Auburn 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.6 5.1 10.5 15.8 20.2 19.8 14.8 8.2 2.8 0.4
LSU 13 - 5 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 9.1 16.0 21.0 21.0 15.5 8.6 2.9 0.3
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.2 10.0 15.5 20.6 20.3 15.4 8.7 3.1 0.5
Arkansas 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 6.5 12.6 17.2 20.4 18.1 12.7 6.3 2.0 0.3
Mississippi St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.1 11.5 18.3 21.3 18.8 12.5 6.7 1.6 0.3
Tennessee 10 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.8 12.2 18.9 20.4 17.7 12.2 6.4 2.4 0.4 0.1
Missouri 7 - 11 0.1 1.2 4.1 9.1 15.6 19.5 19.3 15.8 8.9 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
Georgia 6 - 12 0.2 1.4 4.6 10.3 16.5 21.1 18.9 13.7 8.3 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
South Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 1.4 4.2 9.8 15.5 20.7 19.7 14.5 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Mississippi 5 - 13 0.7 4.2 12.0 19.4 21.9 19.4 12.3 6.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 6 - 12 5.3 16.5 23.3 22.6 16.5 9.6 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 2 - 16 9.6 22.5 27.7 21.2 11.8 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 43.8% 27.5 11.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
Florida 19.3% 8.9 6.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Auburn 10.1% 3.9 3.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
LSU 43.5% 26.6 11.9 3.7 1.2 0.1
Alabama 10.0% 4.0 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 2.4% 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 2.1% 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Tennessee 3.3% 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Missouri 0.0% 0.0
Georgia 0.0% 0.0
South Carolina 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi
Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0
Vanderbilt


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 99.1% 25.0% 74.1% 4   4.8 10.2 17.3 18.2 16.5 12.6 9.3 5.8 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.9 98.8%
Florida 82.5% 15.6% 67.0% 8   0.6 1.2 3.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 13.4 14.0 11.6 8.9 7.1 0.7 17.5 79.3%
Auburn 96.0% 11.1% 84.9% 6   1.7 3.9 7.4 12.6 13.5 14.0 13.1 9.8 9.3 5.6 4.6 0.6 4.0 95.5%
LSU 94.3% 14.1% 80.2% 7   1.2 3.2 5.6 9.8 12.7 14.3 15.8 14.3 10.1 4.9 2.2 0.1 5.7 93.3%
Alabama 59.3% 10.0% 49.3% 10   0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.8 7.2 10.1 11.0 11.2 9.4 1.3 0.0 40.7 54.8%
Arkansas 81.3% 8.1% 73.1% 9   0.2 0.7 1.5 3.9 5.6 8.3 11.0 12.9 14.0 11.9 10.0 1.3 18.7 79.6%
Mississippi St. 35.2% 6.7% 28.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 3.8 5.8 8.2 10.2 1.8 0.0 64.8 30.6%
Tennessee 47.4% 6.2% 41.2% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.7 5.9 8.5 9.4 8.4 8.4 1.1 0.0 52.6 44.0%
Missouri 3.3% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.7 2.4%
Georgia 7.1% 0.6% 6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 3.0 0.7 92.9 6.5%
South Carolina 5.5% 1.2% 4.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 94.5 4.3%
Mississippi 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.1 0.6%
Texas A&M 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kentucky 99.1% 0.3% 98.9% 77.4% 44.4% 21.2% 10.2% 4.8% 2.0%
Florida 82.5% 5.2% 80.1% 50.3% 21.2% 9.5% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Auburn 96.0% 3.6% 94.4% 60.0% 26.1% 10.8% 4.2% 1.3% 0.7%
LSU 94.3% 1.2% 93.6% 58.0% 24.7% 9.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Alabama 59.3% 7.3% 56.0% 30.6% 10.7% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Arkansas 81.3% 8.2% 77.2% 41.5% 15.4% 5.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 35.2% 8.9% 30.8% 15.4% 5.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Tennessee 47.4% 6.7% 44.3% 21.8% 6.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Missouri 3.3% 1.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 7.1% 2.8% 5.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 5.5% 2.1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.1 0.2 3.0 21.3 41.7 27.8 5.6 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.4 5.2 27.5 42.0 21.8 3.0 0.1
2nd Round 99.8% 3.6 0.2 2.6 13.7 29.2 33.9 16.2 3.8 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 87.0% 1.6 13.0 37.7 33.4 13.1 2.6 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 53.4% 0.7 46.6 41.3 10.9 1.1 0.1
Final Four 25.6% 0.3 74.4 23.8 1.8 0.0
Final Game 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.7 0.1
Champion 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2