Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Kentucky 97.4%   2   2 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 4 +18.6      +7.4 23 +11.2 3 69.6 181 +10.6 52 0.0 1
20 Florida 70.3%   7   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +13.1      +5.1 52 +8.1 13 61.0 341 +5.8 99 0.0 1
25 Auburn 77.2%   6   4 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 10 - 8 +12.7      +7.3 24 +5.4 53 73.8 82 +15.6 24 0.0 1
27 LSU 69.9%   7   1 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.5      +9.6 6 +2.9 88 78.0 33 +7.7 75 0.0 1
28 Tennessee 68.4%   6   2 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +12.4      +8.1 13 +4.4 64 68.7 209 +10.0 58 0.0 1
30 Arkansas 70.0%   8   2 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.3      +6.1 31 +6.2 40 75.5 65 +9.5 63 0.0 1
45 Mississippi 50.0%   9   3 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +10.5      +5.4 46 +5.1 57 70.3 165 +4.3 118 0.0 1
47 Missouri 44.8%   11   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +10.3      +2.3 103 +8.0 15 69.7 179 +6.7 89 0.0 1
55 Mississippi St. 40.4%   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +8.9      +4.3 68 +4.6 60 65.8 286 +8.6 70 0.0 1
60 South Carolina 26.4%   3 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +8.3      +2.3 101 +6.0 46 78.6 30 +1.5 155 0.0 1
61 Georgia 31.5%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +8.2      +5.6 42 +2.6 97 75.5 64 +5.4 106 0.0 1
63 Alabama 24.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 +8.1      +3.7 76 +4.4 62 88.4 4 -2.6 218 0.0 1
95 Texas A&M 11.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 12 +5.2      +1.3 134 +3.9 71 69.1 197 +5.1 108 0.0 1
122 Vanderbilt 2.9%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 18 4 - 14 +2.5      +1.7 125 +0.8 140 68.0 231 -0.6 187 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Kentucky 2.4 49.7 19.3 10.8 6.7 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida 5.1 12.8 13.5 12.5 11.2 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.4 5.5 4.2 3.4 2.4 1.6 0.7
Auburn 5.6 9.5 11.3 11.6 11.0 10.2 9.4 8.3 7.2 6.2 5.3 4.3 3.0 1.9 0.8
LSU 5.5 11.8 12.9 11.4 10.4 9.5 8.4 7.7 6.8 5.8 5.0 4.1 3.1 2.1 1.0
Tennessee 5.7 10.6 11.4 10.9 10.5 9.4 8.8 7.9 7.2 6.4 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.3 1.2
Arkansas 5.6 10.6 12.2 11.4 10.3 9.7 8.6 8.0 7.1 6.0 5.0 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.2
Mississippi 7.0 4.6 6.9 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.3 6.1 4.6 2.3
Missouri 6.8 5.4 7.9 8.8 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.5 5.5 4.1 2.3
Mississippi St. 7.9 2.9 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.7 7.9 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.3 6.7 4.0
South Carolina 7.9 2.9 4.8 5.8 7.1 7.4 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.6 7.8 6.7 4.6
Georgia 8.6 2.2 3.3 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.2 8.0 8.8 9.2 9.8 10.0 10.2 8.9 5.9
Alabama 8.3 2.2 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.9 7.5 8.3 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.2 7.6 5.2
Texas A&M 10.4 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.5 9.3 11.2 13.9 16.7 15.8
Vanderbilt 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.8 6.6 9.4 14.0 21.0 33.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kentucky 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.4 10.6 13.2 15.5 16.1 13.8 9.2 3.5
Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.0 6.2 8.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 12.5 10.5 8.2 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.2
Auburn 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.1 7.3 9.7 11.9 13.0 13.0 11.6 9.5 6.6 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1
LSU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.9 7.0 9.1 10.8 12.0 12.0 11.3 9.9 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.3
Tennessee 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.7 9.7 11.2 12.2 12.2 11.1 9.3 6.9 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.2
Arkansas 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.4 11.3 12.1 12.3 11.3 9.5 7.0 4.6 2.6 1.0 0.2
Mississippi 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.7 6.3 8.4 10.4 11.9 12.5 12.1 10.5 8.4 5.9 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
Missouri 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.5 7.8 9.7 11.4 12.3 12.4 11.0 8.9 6.6 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Mississippi St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.5 8.1 10.3 11.9 12.5 11.9 10.5 8.7 6.3 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.6 8.1 10.0 12.1 12.6 12.1 10.8 8.5 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Georgia 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.7 7.3 9.9 11.8 12.4 12.6 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 6.5 9.1 11.0 12.8 12.7 11.6 9.8 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 6 - 12 1.1 3.5 6.9 9.9 12.4 13.4 13.0 11.4 9.5 7.2 5.2 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 4 - 14 3.2 8.2 13.4 15.8 15.5 13.8 10.7 7.7 5.2 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 49.7% 37.1 9.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida 12.8% 7.6 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Auburn 9.5% 5.2 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
LSU 11.8% 6.9 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 10.6% 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 10.6% 6.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 4.6% 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 5.4% 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 2.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 2.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 97.4% 34.7% 62.8% 2   26.8 21.1 14.3 10.7 7.7 5.7 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.6 96.1%
Florida 70.3% 10.1% 60.2% 7   3.3 5.2 6.6 7.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 7.6 6.4 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 29.7 66.9%
Auburn 77.2% 8.8% 68.4% 6   3.5 5.6 7.4 8.6 8.9 8.7 8.1 7.1 7.0 5.9 5.4 1.0 0.0 22.8 75.0%
LSU 69.9% 9.0% 60.9% 7   3.4 5.1 6.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.9 7.5 7.2 5.9 4.6 0.8 0.0 30.1 66.9%
Tennessee 68.4% 8.5% 59.9% 6   3.4 5.3 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 31.6 65.5%
Arkansas 70.0% 8.7% 61.3% 8   2.8 4.8 6.0 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.2 0.9 0.0 30.0 67.1%
Mississippi 50.0% 4.7% 45.3% 9   0.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.0 6.0 6.9 6.4 6.4 5.8 1.2 0.0 50.0 47.5%
Missouri 44.8% 4.6% 40.2% 11   0.5 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.2 6.1 5.7 6.0 6.0 1.4 0.0 55.2 42.2%
Mississippi St. 40.4% 3.0% 37.4% 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.9 5.9 6.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 59.6 38.5%
South Carolina 26.4% 2.5% 23.9% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 5.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.6 24.5%
Georgia 31.5% 2.3% 29.2% 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.0 1.1 0.0 68.5 29.8%
Alabama 24.4% 2.2% 22.2% 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.6 22.7%
Texas A&M 11.6% 0.7% 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 88.4 11.0%
Vanderbilt 2.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 97.1 2.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kentucky 97.4% 0.5% 97.2% 85.6% 59.7% 36.8% 21.2% 11.7% 6.4%
Florida 70.3% 3.1% 68.9% 47.1% 23.1% 10.5% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Auburn 77.2% 4.6% 74.8% 49.4% 23.0% 9.7% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%
LSU 69.9% 3.8% 68.1% 45.2% 21.4% 9.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Tennessee 68.4% 3.2% 66.9% 44.5% 21.4% 9.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7%
Arkansas 70.0% 4.3% 67.8% 44.4% 20.4% 8.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Mississippi 50.0% 5.0% 47.5% 27.5% 10.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Missouri 44.8% 5.3% 42.3% 24.6% 9.6% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 40.4% 5.5% 37.5% 20.3% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
South Carolina 26.4% 4.7% 24.1% 12.6% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Georgia 31.5% 4.5% 29.1% 15.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Alabama 24.4% 2.5% 23.2% 12.4% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Texas A&M 11.6% 2.3% 10.3% 4.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 2.9% 0.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.2 2.1 10.5 25.5 32.3 21.4 6.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.6 0.0 0.4 3.5 14.0 28.8 30.6 17.2 4.8 0.6 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.3 0.1 1.0 5.9 18.3 30.0 27.0 13.5 3.7 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.8% 2.1 5.2 23.8 36.6 24.5 8.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 71.3% 1.0 28.7 45.6 21.3 4.0 0.4 0.0
Final Four 42.3% 0.5 57.7 36.5 5.5 0.3 0.0
Final Game 21.7% 0.2 78.3 20.9 0.8
Champion 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6