Boston University
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#200
Pace66.8#253
Improvement+3.8#34

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#145
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#284
Layup/Dunks+5.4#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
Freethrows-1.6#296
Improvement+3.4#29

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#218
First Shot-0.3#169
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#299
Layups/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#89
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+0.4#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 20.3% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 84.3% 89.9% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 98.1% 91.1%
Conference Champion 21.4% 26.8% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.2%
First Round18.0% 19.7% 14.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 414 - 518 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 131   Northeastern L 67-72 50%     0 - 1 -5.7 -7.0 +1.2
  Nov 13, 2019 81   @ Vermont L 47-62 17%     0 - 2 -5.4 -18.1 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2019 299   New Hampshire W 84-70 83%     1 - 2 +3.3 +9.8 -6.5
  Nov 19, 2019 93   @ South Carolina W 78-70 19%     2 - 2 +16.7 +6.6 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 44-69 5%     2 - 3 -7.1 -16.1 +8.4
  Nov 26, 2019 123   Northern Colorado L 55-78 37%     2 - 4 -20.1 -13.8 -7.4
  Nov 27, 2019 300   Tennessee Martin L 73-76 76%     2 - 5 -11.1 -4.2 -7.1
  Dec 04, 2019 192   @ George Washington L 63-64 44%     2 - 6 +0.1 -6.1 +6.1
  Dec 07, 2019 334   @ Binghamton L 79-84 OT 77%     2 - 7 -13.4 -4.3 -8.8
  Dec 14, 2019 211   Dartmouth W 78-76 70%     3 - 7 -3.9 +6.9 -10.7
  Dec 21, 2019 272   @ Umass Lowell W 74-62 60%     4 - 7 +8.8 -6.6 +14.8
  Dec 29, 2019 281   @ Merrimack W 69-67 63%     5 - 7 -1.9 +7.7 -9.3
  Jan 02, 2020 193   Lafayette W 73-72 66%     6 - 7 1 - 0 -3.8 -1.9 -1.9
  Jan 05, 2020 219   @ American L 63-67 50%     6 - 8 1 - 1 -4.5 -9.6 +5.1
  Jan 08, 2020 261   Lehigh W 84-67 77%     7 - 8 2 - 1 +8.6 +2.6 +5.5
  Jan 11, 2020 297   Army W 81-59 83%     8 - 8 3 - 1 +11.3 +8.9 +4.0
  Jan 13, 2020 270   @ Loyola Maryland W 85-53 60%     9 - 8 4 - 1 +28.8 +3.8 +23.1
  Jan 18, 2020 127   @ Colgate L 70-79 29%     9 - 9 4 - 2 -3.7 +3.7 -8.2
  Jan 22, 2020 217   Navy W 66-60 70%    
  Jan 25, 2020 340   @ Holy Cross W 76-67 81%    
  Jan 29, 2020 270   Loyola Maryland W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 01, 2020 227   @ Bucknell W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 05, 2020 297   @ Army W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 08, 2020 340   Holy Cross W 79-64 92%    
  Feb 10, 2020 127   Colgate L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 15, 2020 217   @ Navy L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 19, 2020 193   @ Lafayette L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 23, 2020 219   American W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 26, 2020 261   @ Lehigh W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 227   Bucknell W 75-69 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 6.0 7.7 4.7 1.1 21.4 1st
2nd 0.3 4.6 12.3 11.6 4.3 0.6 33.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 8.8 6.3 1.0 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.1 0.4 7.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.4 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.9 12.7 18.5 21.0 18.6 12.0 5.3 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 88.9% 4.7    3.6 1.1 0.0
14-4 63.8% 7.7    4.4 3.1 0.2
13-5 32.4% 6.0    1.9 3.1 0.9 0.1
12-6 8.6% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 11.0 8.1 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.1% 34.3% 34.3% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
15-3 5.3% 31.0% 31.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.6
14-4 12.0% 27.7% 27.7% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.1 8.7
13-5 18.6% 22.7% 22.7% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.7 14.4
12-6 21.0% 18.3% 18.3% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.3 17.1
11-7 18.5% 15.8% 15.8% 15.5 0.1 1.2 1.6 15.5
10-8 12.7% 11.5% 11.5% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 11.2
9-9 6.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.1 0.6 6.2
8-10 2.9% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.2 2.7
7-11 0.9% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 8.2 5.6 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.1 18.9 56.8 24.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%