Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#267
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#289
Pace71.5#118
Improvement+5.7#8

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#208
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#91
Layup/Dunks-6.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#58
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement+1.9#72

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#309
First Shot-2.8#266
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#325
Layups/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#302
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+3.8#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.2% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.7% 40.9% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 1.4% 7.2%
First Four2.5% 3.1% 1.8%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 13
Quad 47 - 910 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2019 42   @ North Carolina St. L 65-84 4%     0 - 1 -5.2 -8.0 +4.2
  Nov 17, 2019 70   @ Clemson L 65-87 7%     0 - 2 -11.6 -2.1 -8.7
  Nov 19, 2019 279   @ Wyoming L 49-76 42%     0 - 3 -30.7 -24.4 -5.5
  Nov 24, 2019 115   UC Irvine W 86-74 19%     1 - 3 +15.4 +9.1 +5.3
  Nov 25, 2019 263   Louisiana L 62-81 50%     1 - 4 -24.7 -19.2 -3.8
  Nov 30, 2019 211   @ Ohio L 81-91 29%     1 - 5 -10.1 +5.0 -14.8
  Dec 03, 2019 113   @ Kent St. L 57-92 13%     1 - 6 -28.5 -16.4 -10.4
  Dec 07, 2019 226   Eastern Michigan L 51-55 54%     1 - 7 -10.7 -15.6 +4.7
  Dec 10, 2019 55   @ Notre Dame L 71-110 6%     1 - 8 -27.0 -0.6 -24.7
  Dec 14, 2019 114   Toledo L 72-80 27%     1 - 9 -7.5 +0.1 -7.9
  Dec 19, 2019 126   Northeastern L 61-74 30%     1 - 10 -13.3 -9.8 -4.5
  Dec 21, 2019 338   SIU Edwardsville W 81-55 79%     2 - 10 +11.5 +7.2 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2019 241   @ Oakland L 69-78 34%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -10.5 -5.8 -4.4
  Dec 30, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 72-93 1%     2 - 12 +1.2 +5.5 -3.6
  Jan 03, 2020 129   Northern Kentucky W 66-58 30%     3 - 12 1 - 1 +7.5 -8.6 +16.0
  Jan 05, 2020 106   Wright St. L 69-70 24%     3 - 13 1 - 2 +0.6 -1.1 +1.7
  Jan 09, 2020 318   @ Cleveland St. L 59-64 53%     3 - 14 1 - 3 -11.5 -11.9 +0.1
  Jan 11, 2020 239   @ Youngstown St. L 67-69 34%     3 - 15 1 - 4 -3.5 -5.0 +1.4
  Jan 16, 2020 242   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-84 34%     4 - 15 2 - 4 +4.4 +9.5 -5.6
  Jan 18, 2020 215   @ Green Bay L 80-83 30%     4 - 16 2 - 5 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1
  Jan 23, 2020 323   IUPUI W 76-64 75%     5 - 16 3 - 5 -0.9 -5.6 +4.6
  Jan 25, 2020 198   Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 31, 2020 241   Oakland W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 06, 2020 106   @ Wright St. L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 08, 2020 129   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 13, 2020 239   Youngstown St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 15, 2020 318   Cleveland St. W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 21, 2020 215   Green Bay W 84-83 51%    
  Feb 23, 2020 242   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 27, 2020 198   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 29, 2020 323   @ IUPUI W 77-76 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.6 0.2 5.4 3rd
4th 0.4 4.6 4.3 0.4 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 4.7 7.3 1.2 13.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 11.5 3.3 0.1 19.0 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 12.1 5.9 0.3 22.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 8.5 6.1 0.5 17.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.3 0.4 10.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 10th
Total 0.4 2.4 8.0 15.6 22.8 23.0 16.2 8.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 10.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 2.5% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.2 2.3
10-8 8.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.5 8.0
9-9 16.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.6 15.7
8-10 23.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.7 22.3
7-11 22.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 22.4
6-12 15.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.5
5-13 8.0% 8.0
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%