Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#218
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#154
Pace71.0#144
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#334
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 11.0% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 27.5% 53.6% 24.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 66.0% 45.7%
Conference Champion 5.6% 10.6% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 4.2% 10.9%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round5.1% 10.9% 4.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 48 - 413 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2019 35   @ North Carolina St. L 65-84 6%     0 - 1 -4.2 -7.3 +4.3
  Nov 17, 2019 79   @ Clemson L 67-80 11%    
  Nov 19, 2019 283   @ Wyoming W 65-64 52%    
  Nov 24, 2019 104   UC Irvine L 70-77 25%    
  Nov 25, 2019 240   Louisiana W 84-83 54%    
  Nov 30, 2019 154   @ Ohio L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 03, 2019 121   @ Kent St. L 73-82 22%    
  Dec 07, 2019 219   Eastern Michigan W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 10, 2019 34   @ Notre Dame L 64-82 5%    
  Dec 14, 2019 96   Toledo L 74-79 31%    
  Dec 19, 2019 129   Northeastern L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 21, 2019 332   SIU Edwardsville W 85-74 83%    
  Dec 28, 2019 168   @ Oakland L 72-78 31%    
  Dec 30, 2019 8   @ Gonzaga L 70-94 2%    
  Jan 03, 2020 137   Northern Kentucky L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 05, 2020 101   Wright St. L 74-79 35%    
  Jan 09, 2020 321   @ Cleveland St. W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 220   @ Youngstown St. L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 16, 2020 275   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 166   @ Green Bay L 82-88 31%    
  Jan 23, 2020 255   IUPUI W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 25, 2020 164   Illinois-Chicago W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 31, 2020 168   Oakland W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 06, 2020 101   @ Wright St. L 71-82 18%    
  Feb 08, 2020 137   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 13, 2020 220   Youngstown St. W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 321   Cleveland St. W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 21, 2020 166   Green Bay W 85-84 51%    
  Feb 23, 2020 275   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 27, 2020 164   @ Illinois-Chicago L 75-81 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 255   @ IUPUI L 77-79 45%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 5.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 3.2 0.6 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 5.3 3.2 0.5 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.5 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.6 5.8 7.6 9.4 11.3 11.7 11.5 10.4 8.8 6.7 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 91.4% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 82.1% 1.4    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 56.4% 1.7    0.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 24.6% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 60.0% 60.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 27.6% 27.6% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.7% 27.2% 27.2% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.0% 22.8% 22.8% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
13-5 4.8% 14.9% 14.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.1
12-6 6.7% 11.8% 11.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.9
11-7 8.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 8.1
10-8 10.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 9.7
9-9 11.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 11.1
8-10 11.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.1 0.3 11.3
7-11 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 11.2
6-12 9.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.5
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.4 94.5 0.0%