Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#196
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#155
Pace75.3#61
Improvement-1.6#323

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#227
First Shot+2.5#96
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#336
Layup/Dunks-8.3#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.5#4
Freethrows-1.6#260
Improvement-1.0#305

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#179
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks+1.2#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#265
Freethrows+0.4#165
Improvement-0.6#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 5.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.4 13.4
.500 or above 22.4% 50.2% 21.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.3% 60.7% 41.3%
Conference Champion 3.2% 7.3% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 6.0% 13.4%
First Four0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 4.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Neutral) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 44 - 29 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 211   @ Lipscomb W 73-70 41%     1 - 0 +3.3 -5.6 +8.6
  Nov 18, 2019 166   @ Coastal Carolina L 72-93 32%     1 - 1 -18.2 -10.4 -5.3
  Nov 21, 2019 14   Villanova L 63-80 5%    
  Nov 30, 2019 59   Belmont L 76-84 23%    
  Dec 07, 2019 113   @ Murray St. L 71-79 23%    
  Dec 14, 2019 47   @ Mississippi L 65-80 8%    
  Dec 21, 2019 143   St. Bonaventure L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 29, 2019 82   Rhode Island L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 02, 2020 130   @ Old Dominion L 63-70 25%    
  Jan 04, 2020 214   @ Charlotte L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 09, 2020 233   Marshall W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 11, 2020 77   Western Kentucky L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 16, 2020 183   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 18, 2020 122   @ Florida International L 79-87 25%    
  Jan 23, 2020 89   Louisiana Tech L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 25, 2020 236   Southern Miss W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 30, 2020 131   @ UTEP L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 01, 2020 216   @ Texas San Antonio L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 06, 2020 151   North Texas W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 08, 2020 201   Rice W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 12, 2020 186   @ UAB L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 15, 2020 186   UAB W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 8 - 14 6 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 4.4 1.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.4 4.6 2.8 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 5.1 0.5 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.5 2.2 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 4.8 0.4 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 5.7 1.6 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.5 4.4 3.4 0.2 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.4 0.8 0.0 8.2 12th
13th 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.7 0.0 7.7 13th
14th 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.8 14th
Total 0.6 2.3 5.0 8.4 12.3 14.0 15.2 14.0 10.8 8.0 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 96.2% 0.4    0.4 0.1
12-2 78.9% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-3 41.9% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-4 11.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 34.7% 22.4% 12.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.8%
13-1 0.4% 35.9% 28.2% 7.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 10.6%
12-2 1.2% 23.4% 22.1% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.7%
11-3 2.7% 16.1% 15.6% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.6%
10-4 5.1% 8.9% 8.9% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.7
9-5 8.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-6 10.8% 2.8% 2.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
7-7 14.0% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.7
6-8 15.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.1
5-9 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
4-10 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 12.3
3-11 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.4
2-12 5.0% 5.0
1-13 2.3% 2.3
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 97.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%