Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#65
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#73
Pace69.2#182
Improvement-6.2#348

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#142
First Shot+1.0#141
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#154
Layup/Dunks+3.2#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#251
Freethrows+0.5#129
Improvement-2.0#275

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#32
First Shot+6.1#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks+2.3#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows+1.0#120
Improvement-4.2#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 13.4% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 12.6% 3.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 27.9% 44.2% 19.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 5.0% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.8% 31.8% 59.8%
First Four2.8% 4.6% 1.7%
First Round6.0% 10.9% 3.2%
Second Round2.6% 5.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 58 - 17
Quad 34 - 112 - 18
Quad 43 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 125   Oral Roberts W 80-75 77%     1 - 0 +4.9 -13.3 +17.2
  Nov 09, 2019 242   UMKC W 69-51 91%     2 - 0 +10.8 -1.9 +14.0
  Nov 13, 2019 126   @ College of Charleston W 73-54 59%     3 - 0 +24.4 +9.7 +17.1
  Nov 17, 2019 72   Yale W 64-57 62%     4 - 0 +11.6 -4.9 +16.3
  Nov 22, 2019 230   Western Michigan W 70-63 91%     5 - 0 +0.3 -4.2 +4.8
  Nov 27, 2019 51   Syracuse W 86-72 43%     6 - 0 +23.7 +7.8 +14.5
  Nov 29, 2019 102   Mississippi W 78-37 62%     7 - 0 +45.6 +2.3 +40.8
  Dec 04, 2019 48   Georgetown L 74-81 51%     7 - 1 +0.4 -1.4 +2.1
  Dec 08, 2019 42   Wichita St. L 61-80 49%     7 - 2 -11.0 -8.0 -2.0
  Dec 15, 2019 28   @ Houston W 61-55 24%     8 - 2 +21.3 +3.4 +18.8
  Dec 21, 2019 35   Minnesota L 66-86 35%     8 - 3 -8.3 -2.2 -6.2
  Dec 29, 2019 326   SE Louisiana W 82-31 96%     9 - 3 +38.1 +3.9 +34.4
  Jan 04, 2020 18   @ Texas Tech L 50-85 20%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -18.2 -7.4 -13.3
  Jan 06, 2020 11   West Virginia L 41-55 33%     9 - 5 0 - 2 -1.8 -21.5 +19.1
  Jan 11, 2020 67   @ TCU L 40-52 39%     9 - 6 0 - 3 -1.4 -20.4 +17.4
  Jan 15, 2020 54   Texas L 64-76 55%     9 - 7 0 - 4 -5.5 -0.7 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2020 5   Baylor L 68-75 25%     9 - 8 0 - 5 +7.8 +7.5 -0.1
  Jan 21, 2020 56   @ Iowa St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 131   @ Texas A&M W 62-59 60%    
  Jan 27, 2020 1   Kansas L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 01, 2020 49   @ Oklahoma L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 05, 2020 67   TCU W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 08, 2020 5   @ Baylor L 58-71 11%    
  Feb 11, 2020 82   @ Kansas St. L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 15, 2020 18   Texas Tech L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 18, 2020 11   @ West Virginia L 61-71 17%    
  Feb 22, 2020 49   Oklahoma W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 24, 2020 1   @ Kansas L 57-73 7%    
  Feb 29, 2020 56   Iowa St. W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 04, 2020 82   Kansas St. W 65-61 64%    
  Mar 07, 2020 54   @ Texas L 61-65 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.7 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 7.3 6.7 1.1 0.0 16.5 8th
9th 0.3 3.2 10.3 9.7 1.9 0.0 25.4 9th
10th 0.5 3.1 8.3 12.1 8.3 1.8 0.1 34.4 10th
Total 0.5 3.1 8.6 15.4 20.1 20.0 15.4 9.9 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 99.3% 3.9% 95.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
10-8 0.5% 99.0% 4.7% 94.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
9-9 1.7% 88.2% 5.7% 82.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 87.5%
8-10 4.7% 58.1% 1.8% 56.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 57.3%
7-11 9.9% 18.8% 1.2% 17.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 8.0 17.9%
6-12 15.4% 3.0% 0.5% 2.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.9 2.5%
5-13 20.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.9 0.1%
4-14 20.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0
3-15 15.4% 0.3% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.3
2-16 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.6
1-17 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 7.4% 0.6% 6.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%