Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#48
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#28
Pace68.2#218
Improvement+1.6#32

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot+2.3#104
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks+5.2#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#169
Freethrows-1.8#274
Improvement+0.5#103

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#30
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#224
Layups/Dunks+1.6#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#88
Freethrows+0.5#160
Improvement+1.1#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 9.4% 9.8% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 20.5% 21.2% 8.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.4% 47.6% 26.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.6% 45.7% 25.6%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 7.7
.500 or above 67.1% 68.6% 41.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.7% 36.5% 21.6%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 18.5% 30.4%
First Four2.9% 2.9% 2.3%
First Round44.9% 46.0% 25.4%
Second Round26.5% 27.3% 12.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.3% 10.7% 3.2%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.3% 1.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 14
Quad 34 - 114 - 14
Quad 44 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 180   Oral Roberts W 80-75 90%     1 - 0 +0.8 -12.6 +12.4
  Nov 09, 2019 266   UMKC W 69-51 95%     2 - 0 +9.4 -2.1 +12.9
  Nov 13, 2019 128   @ College of Charleston W 73-54 68%     3 - 0 +24.3 +10.9 +15.6
  Nov 17, 2019 116   Yale W 64-57 83%     4 - 0 +6.9 -9.8 +16.6
  Nov 22, 2019 241   Western Michigan W 79-62 95%    
  Nov 27, 2019 62   Syracuse W 65-64 54%    
  Dec 04, 2019 76   Georgetown W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 08, 2019 54   Wichita St. W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 15, 2019 45   @ Houston L 66-70 37%    
  Dec 21, 2019 73   Minnesota W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 29, 2019 310   SE Louisiana W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2020 11   @ Texas Tech L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 06, 2020 46   West Virginia W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 11, 2020 55   @ TCU L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 15, 2020 24   Texas L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 18, 2020 19   Baylor L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 21, 2020 38   @ Iowa St. L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 25, 2020 107   @ Texas A&M W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 27, 2020 3   Kansas L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 01, 2020 40   @ Oklahoma L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 05, 2020 55   TCU W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 08, 2020 19   @ Baylor L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 11, 2020 58   @ Kansas St. L 60-62 43%    
  Feb 15, 2020 11   Texas Tech L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 18, 2020 46   @ West Virginia L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 40   Oklahoma W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 24, 2020 3   @ Kansas L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 29, 2020 38   Iowa St. W 71-70 55%    
  Mar 04, 2020 58   Kansas St. W 63-59 63%    
  Mar 07, 2020 24   @ Texas L 62-68 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.2 2.1 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 2.3 0.2 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.7 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.1 7.9 10.5 12.0 12.7 12.2 10.8 8.8 6.8 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 87.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 58.2% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.4 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.4% 99.8% 9.9% 89.9% 4.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 6.8% 99.6% 8.6% 91.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-8 8.8% 96.5% 5.4% 91.0% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.2%
9-9 10.8% 87.7% 4.2% 83.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 87.2%
8-10 12.2% 62.2% 2.7% 59.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 4.6 61.2%
7-11 12.7% 28.9% 0.9% 28.0% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 28.3%
6-12 12.0% 8.0% 0.6% 7.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.0 7.5%
5-13 10.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 1.1%
4-14 7.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.1%
3-15 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 46.4% 3.4% 43.1% 6.9 0.7 1.6 3.2 3.8 4.8 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 53.6 44.6%