UNC Asheville
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#271
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#288
Pace74.6#60
Improvement-4.6#333

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#234
First Shot-0.2#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#300
Layup/Dunks+1.6#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#126
Freethrows-2.1#314
Improvement-5.3#348

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#290
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#258
Layups/Dunks-10.7#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#14
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement+0.7#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 29.6% 40.8% 14.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 59.4% 26.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.6% 7.4%
First Four3.2% 3.9% 2.3%
First Round2.6% 3.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 411 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 44   @ Tennessee L 63-78 5%     0 - 1 -1.6 -2.9 +1.7
  Nov 09, 2019 308   @ The Citadel W 91-76 49%     1 - 1 +9.2 +8.3 +0.0
  Nov 13, 2019 100   @ Wake Forest L 79-98 10%     1 - 2 -11.2 +4.3 -14.4
  Dec 03, 2019 155   @ Charlotte W 83-75 19%     2 - 2 +11.2 +10.8 +0.0
  Dec 07, 2019 159   @ Western Carolina L 77-78 19%     2 - 3 +2.1 -4.9 +7.1
  Dec 11, 2019 323   @ South Carolina St. L 85-90 OT 53%     2 - 4 -11.9 -10.0 -0.9
  Dec 14, 2019 304   Tennessee Martin W 91-72 69%     3 - 4 +7.7 +5.4 +2.3
  Dec 17, 2019 303   Stetson W 78-76 69%     4 - 4 -9.3 -1.8 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2019 156   Chattanooga L 64-68 37%     4 - 5 -6.7 -7.7 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2020 326   @ Presbyterian L 77-79 54%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -9.2 -1.6 -7.6
  Jan 08, 2020 274   Campbell L 62-64 62%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -11.4 -17.0 +5.7
  Jan 11, 2020 272   @ Charleston Southern W 71-69 39%     5 - 7 1 - 2 -1.4 -3.1 +1.8
  Jan 16, 2020 343   High Point L 66-68 83%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -18.4 -15.0 -3.4
  Jan 18, 2020 311   Hampton L 86-88 70%     5 - 9 1 - 4 -13.6 -4.3 -9.2
  Jan 20, 2020 316   @ Longwood W 71-66 51%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -1.4 -7.9 +6.2
  Jan 23, 2020 170   Radford W 80-67 39%     7 - 9 3 - 4 +9.7 +8.2 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2020 320   @ South Carolina Upstate L 63-80 52%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -23.8 -13.0 -10.8
  Jan 30, 2020 248   Gardner-Webb W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 01, 2020 128   @ Winthrop L 72-83 14%    
  Feb 06, 2020 320   South Carolina Upstate W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 10, 2020 311   @ Hampton L 82-83 48%    
  Feb 13, 2020 316   Longwood W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 272   Charleston Southern W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 20, 2020 170   @ Radford L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 22, 2020 326   Presbyterian W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 27, 2020 343   @ High Point W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 29, 2020 274   @ Campbell L 69-72 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.7 4.6 0.9 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.6 7.8 7.0 1.2 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.1 5.4 9.9 1.9 0.0 17.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 10.1 3.1 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.5 7.4 5.5 0.3 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 3.2 6.5 0.8 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.4 1.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 1.6 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.7 9.7 17.7 22.4 22.3 14.8 6.5 1.5 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 10.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.5% 11.7% 11.7% 15.7 0.1 0.1 1.4
11-7 6.5% 9.3% 9.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.9
10-8 14.8% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1 13.6
9-9 22.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1 21.3
8-10 22.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.6 21.9
7-11 17.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 17.4
6-12 9.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%