UNC Greensboro
Southern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#82
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Pace67.7#234
Improvement-1.3#243

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#156
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#24
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#93
Freethrows-3.5#345
Improvement-0.7#214

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#43
First Shot+4.8#53
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#84
Layups/Dunks+3.2#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#111
Freethrows-1.6#275
Improvement-0.6#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 26.9% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.4% 94.8%
Conference Champion 11.6% 13.1% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
First Round25.1% 26.2% 18.9%
Second Round7.0% 7.4% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.2% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 22 - 34 - 5
Quad 36 - 211 - 7
Quad 412 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 287   N.C. A&T W 83-50 93%     1 - 0 +22.8 +8.0 +15.0
  Nov 08, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 62-74 6%     1 - 1 +12.2 +5.2 +6.5
  Nov 15, 2019 339   Tennessee Tech W 64-30 97%     2 - 1 +18.8 -12.9 +32.3
  Nov 16, 2019 248   Montana St. L 66-67 91%     2 - 2 -8.7 -8.7 +0.0
  Nov 18, 2019 203   Appalachian St. W 55-41 88%     3 - 2 +8.3 -16.3 +25.5
  Nov 24, 2019 289   VMI W 74-63 94%     4 - 2 +0.5 -2.2 +3.2
  Nov 30, 2019 52   @ Georgetown W 65-61 28%     5 - 2 +16.8 -3.7 +20.6
  Dec 04, 2019 345   Kennesaw St. W 72-54 98%     6 - 2 -0.7 -3.0 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2019 162   @ Radford W 60-58 64%     7 - 2 +5.2 -2.8 +8.3
  Dec 15, 2019 42   North Carolina St. L 77-80 46%     7 - 3 +5.0 +9.9 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2019 89   @ Vermont W 54-53 42%     8 - 3 +9.9 +2.2 +8.0
  Dec 21, 2019 129   Northern Kentucky W 67-50 76%     9 - 3 +16.5 +0.8 +17.6
  Jan 01, 2020 228   Mercer W 72-63 89%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +2.3 -7.0 +9.0
  Jan 04, 2020 130   @ Wofford L 92-98 2OT 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -0.6 +3.6 -3.1
  Jan 08, 2020 65   East Tennessee St. L 57-64 58%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -2.1 -10.7 +8.4
  Jan 11, 2020 85   @ Furman W 86-73 41%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +22.3 +16.3 +5.9
  Jan 15, 2020 300   @ The Citadel W 79-69 87%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +4.8 -10.4 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2020 157   Chattanooga W 72-52 81%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +17.5 -3.2 +20.5
  Jan 25, 2020 285   @ Samford W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 29, 2020 169   @ Western Carolina W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 01, 2020 65   @ East Tennessee St. L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 05, 2020 300   The Citadel W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 09, 2020 285   Samford W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 12, 2020 169   Western Carolina W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 228   @ Mercer W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 19, 2020 130   Wofford W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 22, 2020 289   @ VMI W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 26, 2020 85   Furman W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 29, 2020 157   @ Chattanooga W 68-64 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.1 5.7 3.7 11.6 1st
2nd 0.4 4.3 13.0 8.6 0.4 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.8 14.8 9.0 0.6 30.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 9.8 5.8 0.5 20.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.8 17.7 25.0 24.6 14.9 4.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 91.1% 3.7    2.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 38.4% 5.7    1.7 3.0 1.1 0.1
13-5 8.5% 2.1    0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3
12-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 4.1 5.1 2.1 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.1% 58.9% 43.3% 15.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.7 27.4%
14-4 14.9% 40.1% 36.2% 3.9% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 2.6 0.0 9.0 6.1%
13-5 24.6% 28.3% 27.7% 0.6% 11.7 0.1 1.9 4.9 0.1 17.6 0.8%
12-6 25.0% 22.4% 22.2% 0.2% 11.9 0.7 4.5 0.4 19.4 0.2%
11-7 17.7% 17.2% 17.2% 12.1 0.2 2.4 0.5 14.7
10-8 8.8% 13.9% 13.9% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 7.6
9-9 3.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
8-10 1.1% 8.8% 8.8% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.2% 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.7% 24.3% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 6.3 15.5 1.5 0.0 74.3 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 8.1 0.6 2.3 6.3 12.5 17.6 18.2 14.8 12.5 14.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 37.4% 10.8 1.9 7.5 25.2 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 22.0% 10.9 2.2 3.3 12.1 4.4