UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#314
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#322
Pace67.2#244
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#309
First Shot-4.1#297
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#264
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#265
Freethrows-0.4#198
Improvement+0.6#144

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#292
First Shot-3.1#272
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#255
Layups/Dunks-3.0#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
Freethrows+1.4#87
Improvement-0.6#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.3% 37.3% 62.3%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 102 - 15
Quad 44 - 96 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 69   North Carolina L 62-78 10%     0 - 1 -11.3 -14.6 +4.9
  Nov 12, 2019 266   Campbell W 81-76 OT 48%     1 - 1 -3.8 +2.5 -6.4
  Nov 16, 2019 99   @ Davidson L 49-87 7%     1 - 2 -30.3 -18.7 -13.9
  Nov 22, 2019 313   Cleveland St. L 46-47 50%     1 - 3 -10.3 -26.3 +16.0
  Nov 23, 2019 152   Florida International W 66-63 17%     2 - 3 +3.7 -13.2 +16.6
  Nov 29, 2019 108   @ Boise St. L 59-80 7%     2 - 4 -13.9 -11.2 -2.9
  Dec 01, 2019 44   @ Stanford L 54-72 3%     2 - 5 -4.4 -3.6 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2019 185   Charlotte L 57-76 29%     2 - 6 -22.7 -11.7 -11.9
  Dec 16, 2019 236   Mercer L 63-72 41%     2 - 7 -16.1 -12.5 -3.7
  Dec 21, 2019 150   @ Vanderbilt L 73-88 12%     2 - 8 -11.3 -3.8 -6.5
  Dec 28, 2019 206   @ Delaware L 68-82 19%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -13.9 -1.2 -13.9
  Dec 30, 2019 199   @ Drexel L 66-71 18%     2 - 10 0 - 2 -4.7 -5.6 +0.8
  Jan 02, 2020 267   James Madison L 60-64 48%     2 - 11 0 - 3 -12.8 -16.9 +4.0
  Jan 04, 2020 179   Towson L 60-67 29%     2 - 12 0 - 4 -10.6 -12.8 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2020 164   @ William & Mary L 63-79 13%     2 - 13 0 - 5 -13.0 -9.5 -3.7
  Jan 11, 2020 307   @ Elon L 63-80 37%     2 - 14 0 - 6 -23.0 -12.2 -11.4
  Jan 16, 2020 143   Hofstra L 61-63 23%     2 - 15 0 - 7 -3.6 -7.5 +3.7
  Jan 18, 2020 139   Northeastern W 76-74 OT 22%     3 - 15 1 - 7 +0.8 -3.5 +4.2
  Jan 25, 2020 127   @ College of Charleston L 60-75 8%    
  Jan 30, 2020 179   @ Towson L 60-71 14%    
  Feb 01, 2020 267   @ James Madison L 72-78 27%    
  Feb 06, 2020 307   Elon W 70-68 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 164   William & Mary L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 13, 2020 139   @ Northeastern L 61-75 10%    
  Feb 15, 2020 143   @ Hofstra L 65-78 10%    
  Feb 22, 2020 127   College of Charleston L 63-72 20%    
  Feb 27, 2020 199   Drexel L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 29, 2020 206   Delaware L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.8 5.1 7.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 18.2 8th
9th 3.1 13.3 14.4 5.7 0.9 0.0 37.4 9th
10th 6.4 16.4 13.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 40.6 10th
Total 6.4 19.5 27.6 23.5 14.4 6.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 23.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.4
3-15 27.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
2-16 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.5
1-17 6.4% 6.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%