UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#266
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#141
Pace72.5#107
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#331
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 7.6% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 20.4% 45.5% 18.1%
.500 or above in Conference 31.6% 49.5% 30.0%
Conference Champion 3.0% 6.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 19.9% 10.3% 20.7%
First Four0.5% 0.7% 0.5%
First Round3.1% 7.5% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 8.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 48 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 6   North Carolina L 62-78 4%     0 - 1 -0.6 -10.4 +11.4
  Nov 12, 2019 287   Campbell W 81-76 OT 67%     1 - 1 -5.0 -0.5 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2019 86   @ Davidson L 66-80 8%    
  Nov 22, 2019 317   Cleveland St. W 80-75 68%    
  Nov 23, 2019 166   Florida International L 83-88 32%    
  Nov 29, 2019 105   @ Boise St. L 70-82 13%    
  Dec 01, 2019 94   @ Stanford L 69-83 11%    
  Dec 07, 2019 233   Charlotte W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 16, 2019 235   Mercer W 82-81 57%    
  Dec 21, 2019 120   @ Vanderbilt L 70-81 16%    
  Dec 28, 2019 192   @ Delaware L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 30, 2019 236   @ Drexel L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 02, 2020 234   James Madison W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 04, 2020 156   Towson L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 09, 2020 174   @ William & Mary L 75-83 26%    
  Jan 11, 2020 315   @ Elon W 77-76 56%    
  Jan 16, 2020 186   Hofstra L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 18, 2020 132   Northeastern L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 141   @ College of Charleston L 69-79 20%    
  Jan 30, 2020 156   @ Towson L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 01, 2020 234   @ James Madison L 78-83 35%    
  Feb 06, 2020 315   Elon W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 174   William & Mary L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 13, 2020 132   @ Northeastern L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 15, 2020 186   @ Hofstra L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 22, 2020 141   College of Charleston L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 27, 2020 236   Drexel W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 192   Delaware L 71-72 49%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.1 1.6 0.4 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 4.8 2.3 0.3 9.2 5th
6th 0.4 2.5 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.8 3.7 0.5 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 5.8 3.5 0.5 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.3 5.9 2.7 0.5 17.8 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 2.7 3.7 2.9 1.2 0.2 12.9 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 3.4 6.5 9.1 11.7 11.9 12.5 11.1 10.1 7.3 5.7 4.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 90.0% 0.6    0.5 0.2
14-4 75.2% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1
13-5 31.0% 0.7    0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 8.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 22.8% 15.2% 7.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.0%
15-3 0.7% 27.6% 27.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 21.7% 21.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.2% 12.0% 12.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.0% 12.5% 12.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.5
11-7 5.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.3
10-8 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.8
9-9 10.1% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.6
8-10 11.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 10.8
7-11 12.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.4
6-12 11.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.8
5-13 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.4
2-16 3.4% 3.4
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%