Umass Lowell
America East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#294
Pace74.9#53
Improvement-3.1#303

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#174
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#270
Layup/Dunks+1.3#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
Freethrows+1.3#86
Improvement-1.0#240

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#330
First Shot-4.5#312
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#306
Layups/Dunks-5.5#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#163
Freethrows+1.6#82
Improvement-2.1#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 8.0% 16.1% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 43.7% 65.4% 33.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.2% 5.2%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 42 - 8
Quad 411 - 1113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 185   @ Massachusetts L 64-79 23%     0 - 1 -13.1 -11.3 -1.3
  Nov 08, 2019 247   @ LIU Brooklyn W 87-74 34%     1 - 1 +11.1 +4.6 +5.4
  Nov 10, 2019 11   @ Ohio St. L 56-76 2%     1 - 2 -1.6 -8.0 +6.8
  Nov 15, 2019 239   Jacksonville L 78-80 55%     1 - 3 -9.3 +10.9 -20.3
  Nov 16, 2019 282   Merrimack L 58-60 64%     1 - 4 -11.6 -11.2 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2019 209   Dartmouth L 75-80 OT 50%     1 - 5 -10.9 -5.0 -5.6
  Nov 26, 2019 195   Brown W 75-63 47%     2 - 5 +6.9 -2.7 +9.1
  Dec 01, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 73-71 91%     3 - 5 -18.9 -8.8 -10.0
  Dec 04, 2019 202   Sacred Heart L 86-89 48%     3 - 6 -8.6 +4.0 -12.4
  Dec 07, 2019 305   St. Francis Brooklyn W 94-63 71%     4 - 6 +19.3 +12.8 +5.6
  Dec 11, 2019 259   @ NJIT W 72-66 37%     5 - 6 +3.4 -7.0 +9.9
  Dec 21, 2019 173   Boston University L 62-74 40%     5 - 7 -15.3 -16.2 +1.4
  Dec 27, 2019 271   @ Loyola Maryland L 81-93 39%     5 - 8 -15.2 -1.8 -12.4
  Dec 29, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 60-86 3%     5 - 9 -9.5 -8.3 +0.3
  Jan 04, 2020 300   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-73 OT 47%     6 - 9 1 - 0 +7.8 -1.6 +7.5
  Jan 08, 2020 283   Hartford L 68-80 64%     6 - 10 1 - 1 -21.8 -7.9 -13.8
  Jan 11, 2020 333   Binghamton W 85-66 78%     7 - 10 2 - 1 +4.8 +1.6 +2.9
  Jan 15, 2020 340   @ Maine L 98-104 OT 64%     7 - 11 2 - 2 -15.8 +4.4 -19.2
  Jan 22, 2020 225   @ Albany L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 25, 2020 81   @ Vermont L 64-80 7%    
  Jan 29, 2020 134   Stony Brook L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 01, 2020 299   New Hampshire W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 05, 2020 134   @ Stony Brook L 70-81 15%    
  Feb 08, 2020 300   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 12, 2020 340   Maine W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 283   @ Hartford L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 20, 2020 333   @ Binghamton W 78-76 59%    
  Feb 26, 2020 225   Albany W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 29, 2020 81   Vermont L 67-77 19%    
  Mar 03, 2020 299   @ New Hampshire L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 9.4 7.5 2.0 0.1 22.3 4th
5th 0.3 5.2 13.0 8.9 1.8 0.1 29.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 9.7 5.1 0.6 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.6 2.9 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 9th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.6 10.9 18.0 21.6 20.0 13.4 7.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 89.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 34.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-5 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.1
12-4 0.5% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-5 2.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
10-6 7.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.8
9-7 13.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.0
8-8 20.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 19.4
7-9 21.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.2
6-10 18.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.8
5-11 10.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-12 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-13 1.1% 1.1
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%