Umass Lowell
America East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#276
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#327
Pace74.9#67
Improvement-1.3#312

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#98
Layup/Dunks-1.0#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#137
Freethrows+0.4#144
Improvement+1.0#59

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#325
First Shot-3.0#260
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#323
Layups/Dunks-3.6#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#258
Freethrows+1.5#107
Improvement-2.4#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 20.2% 27.9% 11.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 53.0% 42.0%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 6.4% 10.5%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round2.1% 2.8% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 913 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 155   @ Massachusetts L 64-79 19%     0 - 1 -11.8 -10.1 -1.2
  Nov 08, 2019 250   @ LIU Brooklyn W 87-74 34%     1 - 1 +11.2 +3.6 +6.5
  Nov 10, 2019 6   @ Ohio St. L 56-76 2%     1 - 2 +0.2 -6.6 +7.2
  Nov 15, 2019 273   Jacksonville L 78-80 61%     1 - 3 -11.0 +7.2 -18.3
  Nov 16, 2019 291   Merrimack L 58-60 65%     1 - 4 -11.9 -11.0 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2019 200   Dartmouth L 75-80 OT 47%     1 - 5 -10.3 -2.8 -7.1
  Nov 26, 2019 230   Brown W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 01, 2019 350   Central Connecticut St. W 86-71 92%    
  Dec 04, 2019 260   Sacred Heart W 84-82 58%    
  Dec 07, 2019 301   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-75 69%    
  Dec 11, 2019 212   @ NJIT L 73-79 28%    
  Dec 21, 2019 173   Boston University L 75-77 41%    
  Dec 27, 2019 222   @ Loyola Maryland L 76-82 30%    
  Dec 29, 2019 31   @ Michigan L 62-83 3%    
  Jan 04, 2020 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 08, 2020 298   Hartford W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 11, 2020 326   Binghamton W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 15, 2020 306   @ Maine W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 22, 2020 194   @ Albany L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 25, 2020 70   @ Vermont L 63-80 7%    
  Jan 29, 2020 174   Stony Brook L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 01, 2020 320   New Hampshire W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 05, 2020 174   @ Stony Brook L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 217   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 12, 2020 306   Maine W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 15, 2020 298   @ Hartford L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 20, 2020 326   @ Binghamton W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 26, 2020 194   Albany L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 29, 2020 70   Vermont L 66-77 17%    
  Mar 03, 2020 320   @ New Hampshire W 75-74 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.3 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.4 6.4 2.1 0.2 17.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 7.7 6.3 1.4 0.1 18.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 7.0 4.8 0.9 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.7 10.4 13.9 15.2 14.7 12.5 9.5 6.1 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 77.7% 0.4    0.2 0.1
13-3 47.2% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
12-4 16.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.4% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-4 3.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7
11-5 6.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.6
10-6 9.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.1
9-7 12.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.1
8-8 14.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 14.4
7-9 15.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.9
6-10 13.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-11 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-12 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-13 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 97.3 0.0%