Western Michigan
Mid-American
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#195
Pace67.5#239
Improvement+2.7#63

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#205
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#265
Layup/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#249
Freethrows+1.6#70
Improvement-0.3#203

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#255
First Shot-0.1#156
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#346
Layups/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#140
Freethrows+0.6#151
Improvement+3.0#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 8.6% 19.2% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 16.1% 32.8% 12.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 19.6% 8.8% 22.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 19.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 35 - 85 - 15
Quad 47 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 278   McNeese St. W 75-65 70%     1 - 0 +0.7 -4.3 +5.1
  Nov 09, 2019 246   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 115-110 3OT 42%     2 - 0 +3.1 +1.4 +0.0
  Nov 12, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 91-81 96%     3 - 0 -14.1 +1.7 -16.2
  Nov 15, 2019 102   @ Mississippi L 58-85 14%     3 - 1 -19.5 -14.6 -3.3
  Nov 22, 2019 68   @ Oklahoma St. L 63-70 9%     3 - 2 +3.6 +0.7 +2.5
  Nov 25, 2019 77   Yale L 51-73 15%     3 - 3 -14.9 -11.5 -5.4
  Nov 26, 2019 198   Seattle L 55-59 44%     3 - 4 -6.5 -13.0 +6.2
  Dec 03, 2019 208   Oakland L 62-72 57%     3 - 5 -15.8 -3.8 -13.5
  Dec 07, 2019 233   Youngstown St. W 66-64 61%     4 - 5 -4.9 -2.5 -2.1
  Dec 14, 2019 237   @ Manhattan W 59-58 41%     5 - 5 -0.4 -9.2 +8.8
  Dec 29, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. L 62-95 2%     5 - 6 -12.1 -0.8 -11.8
  Jan 04, 2020 203   Ohio W 77-65 56%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +6.4 -0.7 +6.9
  Jan 07, 2020 86   @ Akron L 69-84 12%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -5.9 -2.2 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2020 118   @ Toledo L 59-67 17%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -2.0 -8.4 +6.0
  Jan 14, 2020 151   Bowling Green L 82-85 43%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -5.2 +1.7 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2020 109   Kent St. W 67-63 31%     7 - 9 2 - 3 +5.2 +0.9 +4.7
  Jan 21, 2020 133   @ Buffalo L 73-82 19%    
  Jan 25, 2020 188   @ Northern Illinois L 64-69 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 187   Central Michigan W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 04, 2020 189   @ Miami (OH) L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 08, 2020 101   Ball St. L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 11, 2020 203   @ Ohio L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 15, 2020 234   @ Eastern Michigan L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 18, 2020 86   Akron L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 22, 2020 118   Toledo L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 25, 2020 101   @ Ball St. L 61-72 14%    
  Feb 29, 2020 188   Northern Illinois W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 03, 2020 234   Eastern Michigan W 65-62 61%    
  Mar 06, 2020 187   @ Central Michigan L 74-80 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 3.9 0.8 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.6 2.2 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.3 4.6 0.4 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 6.3 7.5 1.2 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.9 8.9 2.5 0.1 0.0 18.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 5.0 7.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 17.0 11th
12th 1.0 3.4 4.3 1.8 0.2 10.7 12th
Total 1.0 4.5 10.3 16.3 19.6 18.3 14.0 8.9 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 89.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 34.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 12.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 5.8% 5.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
10-8 4.6% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
9-9 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.7
8-10 14.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.1 0.0 13.9
7-11 18.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.2
6-12 19.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.5
5-13 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-14 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
3-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%