Wichita St.
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#42
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#20
Pace71.2#128
Improvement-2.2#267

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#111
First Shot-0.1#184
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#32
Layup/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#221
Freethrows+0.6#126
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#15
First Shot+7.2#20
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#73
Layups/Dunks+4.7#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#60
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-2.0#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 7.3% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 15.7% 20.2% 7.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.5% 83.6% 69.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.3% 79.9% 64.7%
Average Seed 8.4 8.1 9.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 95.9% 84.1%
Conference Champion 14.4% 18.7% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four10.5% 9.0% 13.2%
First Round73.0% 78.9% 62.6%
Second Round36.9% 41.4% 28.9%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 14.6% 8.9%
Elite Eight4.9% 5.7% 3.3%
Final Four1.7% 2.0% 1.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 4
Quad 27 - 310 - 8
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 48 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 213   Nebraska Omaha W 68-54 93%     1 - 0 +8.0 -8.7 +17.1
  Nov 09, 2019 242   Texas Southern W 69-63 95%     2 - 0 -1.5 -14.8 +12.7
  Nov 16, 2019 303   Tennessee Martin W 103-62 97%     3 - 0 +29.7 +13.9 +14.2
  Nov 19, 2019 227   Gardner-Webb W 74-52 94%     4 - 0 +15.3 +5.2 +12.5
  Nov 23, 2019 126   Oral Roberts W 68-59 85%     5 - 0 +8.8 -7.5 +16.5
  Nov 26, 2019 92   South Carolina W 70-47 68%     6 - 0 +28.9 -0.8 +29.1
  Nov 27, 2019 8   West Virginia L 63-75 30%     6 - 1 +4.2 -1.4 +6.0
  Dec 05, 2019 306   Central Arkansas W 95-69 97%     7 - 1 +14.3 -5.3 +14.4
  Dec 08, 2019 68   @ Oklahoma St. W 80-61 51%     8 - 1 +29.6 +10.9 +17.6
  Dec 14, 2019 47   Oklahoma W 80-75 63%     9 - 1 +12.5 +7.0 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2019 45   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-63 62%     10 - 1 +17.7 +3.3 +14.0
  Dec 29, 2019 207   Abilene Christian W 84-66 93%     11 - 1 +12.3 +5.3 +5.9
  Jan 01, 2020 229   East Carolina W 75-69 94%     12 - 1 1 - 0 -0.7 -1.9 +1.1
  Jan 04, 2020 102   Mississippi W 74-54 80%     13 - 1 +21.8 +4.9 +17.7
  Jan 09, 2020 29   Memphis W 76-67 55%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +18.5 +5.6 +12.3
  Jan 12, 2020 78   @ Connecticut W 89-86 2OT 54%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +12.8 +2.7 +9.5
  Jan 15, 2020 83   @ Temple L 53-65 56%     15 - 2 3 - 1 -2.6 -13.3 +11.3
  Jan 18, 2020 28   Houston L 54-65 55%     15 - 3 3 - 2 -1.4 -12.9 +11.0
  Jan 21, 2020 113   @ South Florida W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 25, 2020 110   Central Florida W 69-59 82%    
  Feb 01, 2020 98   @ Tulsa W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 06, 2020 49   Cincinnati W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 09, 2020 28   @ Houston L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 13, 2020 110   @ Central Florida W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 16, 2020 168   Tulane W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 20, 2020 113   South Florida W 68-58 82%    
  Feb 23, 2020 49   @ Cincinnati L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 27, 2020 83   Temple W 68-61 75%    
  Mar 01, 2020 76   @ SMU W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 05, 2020 29   @ Memphis L 69-73 33%    
  Mar 08, 2020 98   Tulsa W 69-60 79%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.6 5.6 2.4 0.5 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 8.3 8.0 2.3 0.2 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 8.1 8.9 1.9 0.1 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.7 7.6 1.7 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 6.5 2.1 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.1 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.3 10.2 15.9 19.8 20.2 14.5 8.0 2.6 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 92.2% 2.4    1.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 70.1% 5.6    3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.6% 4.6    1.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.4% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 6.6 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 3.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.0% 99.7% 27.7% 72.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 14.5% 98.4% 24.0% 74.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.6 3.5 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 97.9%
12-6 20.2% 93.8% 19.5% 74.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.3 5.5 3.6 1.3 0.0 1.3 92.3%
11-7 19.8% 84.8% 14.9% 69.9% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.4 5.3 3.8 0.2 3.0 82.2%
10-8 15.9% 68.7% 10.3% 58.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.5 4.6 0.5 5.0 65.1%
9-9 10.2% 48.7% 7.3% 41.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 0.5 5.2 44.6%
8-10 5.3% 24.1% 4.3% 19.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 4.0 20.7%
7-11 2.2% 8.7% 4.3% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 4.6%
6-12 0.7% 6.0% 3.7% 2.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4%
5-13 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 78.5% 16.3% 62.2% 8.4 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 4.2 6.2 8.3 10.3 14.3 14.6 13.7 1.6 21.5 74.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 47.0 28.9 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 12.5 20.8 39.6 27.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 16.4 32.7 20.0 16.4 10.9 3.6