Florida
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#15
Expected Predictive Rating+20.8#4
Pace69.3#186
Improvement+0.2#160

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#26
First Shot+4.4#49
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#47
Layup/Dunks+4.4#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement-0.3#215

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#15
First Shot+7.9#15
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-4.6#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.5#2
Freethrows+0.6#153
Improvement+0.5#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.9%
#1 Seed 10.1% 10.2% 3.6%
Top 2 Seed 22.9% 23.2% 7.3%
Top 4 Seed 49.2% 49.7% 24.5%
Top 6 Seed 69.9% 70.5% 45.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.7% 93.0% 80.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 91.8% 78.2%
Average Seed 4.7 4.7 6.2
.500 or above 99.2% 99.3% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 88.9% 77.3%
Conference Champion 22.6% 22.8% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 4.5%
First Round91.7% 92.0% 78.2%
Second Round69.6% 70.0% 52.7%
Sweet Sixteen39.8% 40.1% 25.5%
Elite Eight20.1% 20.3% 10.9%
Final Four9.5% 9.6% 4.1%
Championship Game4.3% 4.4% 2.7%
National Champion1.7% 1.8% 0.9%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 26 - 214 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 8
Quad 47 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 265   Elon W 74-61 98%     1 - 0 +4.2 -1.2 +6.0
  Nov 14, 2021 24   Florida St. W 71-55 67%     2 - 0 +26.5 +6.0 +20.8
  Nov 18, 2021 244   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-45 97%     3 - 0 +28.7 +4.9 +24.1
  Nov 22, 2021 129   California W 80-60 87%     4 - 0 +22.5 +11.0 +11.6
  Nov 24, 2021 29   Ohio St. W 71-68 59%     5 - 0 +15.5 +2.4 +13.1
  Nov 28, 2021 227   Troy W 78-57 98%    
  Dec 01, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 06, 2021 201   Texas Southern W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 08, 2021 277   North Florida W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 53   Maryland W 72-66 72%    
  Dec 18, 2021 207   South Florida W 68-51 94%    
  Dec 22, 2021 236   Stony Brook W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 74   @ Mississippi W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 05, 2022 18   Alabama W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 20   @ Auburn L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 12, 2022 10   LSU W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 92   @ South Carolina W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 19, 2022 37   Mississippi St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 80   Vanderbilt W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 26, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 34   Oklahoma St. W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 02, 2022 127   @ Missouri W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 74   Mississippi W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 154   Georgia W 81-64 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 12   @ Kentucky L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 15, 2022 81   @ Texas A&M W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 20   Auburn W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 22, 2022 25   Arkansas W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 154   @ Georgia W 78-67 83%    
  Mar 01, 2022 80   @ Vanderbilt W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 12   Kentucky W 73-71 58%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 5.2 6.8 5.3 2.5 0.7 22.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.2 5.8 2.1 0.3 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.6 5.2 1.5 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.7 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.9 2.1 0.3 6.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.0 5.1 7.7 9.8 11.8 14.5 14.6 12.6 8.9 5.6 2.5 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.1
16-2 94.5% 5.3    4.5 0.8
15-3 75.9% 6.8    4.4 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.7% 5.2    1.7 2.3 1.1 0.1
13-5 12.6% 1.8    0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 14.0 5.9 2.1 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 36.2% 63.8% 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.6% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.6 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.9% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.0 2.7 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.8 1.6 3.7 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.6% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.7 0.4 2.0 4.5 4.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.5% 99.9% 12.2% 87.8% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.6 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 11.8% 99.3% 7.4% 91.9% 6.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-8 9.8% 97.9% 5.7% 92.1% 7.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.7%
9-9 7.7% 89.4% 2.7% 86.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.8 89.1%
8-10 5.1% 72.2% 2.0% 70.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 71.6%
7-11 3.0% 37.2% 1.3% 35.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 36.4%
6-12 1.9% 14.4% 0.5% 13.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 13.9%
5-13 0.8% 6.0% 2.4% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.7%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 92.7% 14.0% 78.7% 4.7 10.1 12.8 14.2 12.1 11.6 9.2 7.1 5.5 3.6 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 7.3 91.5%