Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#24
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#27
Pace72.1#101
Improvement-0.5#227

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#36
First Shot+3.0#90
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#41
Layup/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#73
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#22
First Shot+9.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#305
Layups/Dunks+8.8#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#111
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-0.4#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 4.0% 9.1% 2.7%
Top 2 Seed 9.7% 18.1% 7.6%
Top 4 Seed 25.9% 41.3% 22.2%
Top 6 Seed 45.3% 63.7% 40.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.9% 93.2% 80.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.0% 91.5% 77.4%
Average Seed 6.2 5.2 6.5
.500 or above 97.6% 99.5% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 94.7% 89.3%
Conference Champion 17.1% 23.0% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.3% 2.1% 4.9%
First Round80.8% 92.4% 78.0%
Second Round54.7% 67.8% 51.5%
Sweet Sixteen26.5% 37.3% 23.9%
Elite Eight12.1% 17.2% 10.9%
Final Four4.9% 8.0% 4.2%
Championship Game2.0% 3.6% 1.6%
National Champion0.8% 1.6% 0.6%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 27 - 212 - 9
Quad 37 - 119 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 196   Penn W 105-70 94%     1 - 0 +30.3 +15.7 +10.2
  Nov 14, 2021 15   @ Florida L 55-71 33%     1 - 1 +1.9 -7.0 +8.5
  Nov 17, 2021 162   Tulane W 59-54 93%     2 - 1 +2.3 -6.6 +9.5
  Nov 21, 2021 108   Loyola Marymount W 73-45 81%     3 - 1 +32.3 +1.3 +31.0
  Nov 22, 2021 127   Missouri W 81-58 85%     4 - 1 +25.6 +14.5 +11.9
  Nov 24, 2021 130   Boston University W 81-80 OT 90%     5 - 1 +0.5 +2.9 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 04, 2021 78   Syracuse W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 12, 2021 92   South Carolina W 79-71 76%    
  Dec 15, 2021 221   Lipscomb W 83-64 96%    
  Dec 18, 2021 66   Central Florida W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 21, 2021 277   North Florida W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 133   @ Boston College W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 65   @ North Carolina St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 04, 2022 85   @ Wake Forest W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 08, 2022 36   Louisville W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 11, 2022 106   Miami (FL) W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 78   @ Syracuse W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 17, 2022 4   Duke L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 106   @ Miami (FL) W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 26, 2022 84   @ Georgia Tech W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 28   Virginia Tech W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 02, 2022 45   @ Clemson W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 85   Wake Forest W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 09, 2022 213   Pittsburgh W 78-59 95%    
  Feb 12, 2022 44   @ North Carolina W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 15, 2022 45   Clemson W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 4   @ Duke L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 39   @ Virginia L 59-60 49%    
  Mar 02, 2022 64   Notre Dame W 76-67 78%    
  Mar 05, 2022 65   North Carolina St. W 77-68 78%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.3 5.2 3.7 1.5 0.3 17.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.5 6.3 4.8 1.8 0.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.5 3.5 5.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.5 6.7 9.4 12.3 13.3 13.8 12.4 10.0 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.1
18-2 95.3% 3.7    3.0 0.6
17-3 73.7% 5.2    3.5 1.6 0.1
16-4 43.0% 4.3    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 14.0% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.1% 17.1 10.4 5.1 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 73.1% 26.9% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 44.7% 55.3% 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.8% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-3 7.0% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 2.8 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.0% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 3.8 0.5 1.2 2.5 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 99.5% 21.8% 77.7% 5.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.2 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4%
14-6 13.8% 98.9% 16.2% 82.7% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.4 3.1 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.7%
13-7 13.3% 95.4% 9.9% 85.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.9%
12-8 12.3% 89.5% 6.6% 82.9% 8.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.3 1.3 88.7%
11-9 9.4% 70.9% 4.2% 66.8% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.7 69.7%
10-10 6.7% 43.8% 1.6% 42.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 42.8%
9-11 4.5% 21.0% 1.3% 19.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 19.9%
8-12 2.7% 5.2% 0.4% 4.8% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6 4.8%
7-13 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 82.9% 14.5% 68.4% 6.2 4.0 5.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 9.8 8.9 8.3 7.2 6.0 5.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 17.1 80.0%