St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#62
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#84
Pace81.3#7
Improvement-2.8#341

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#58
First Shot+5.2#39
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#213
Layup/Dunks+8.0#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#182
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement-3.2#350

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#85
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#260
Layups/Dunks+1.8#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#231
Freethrows+3.0#27
Improvement+0.3#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 7.3% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 40.3% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.9% 37.7% 17.9%
Average Seed 9.1 8.7 9.3
.500 or above 74.2% 88.3% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 55.3% 43.5%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.1% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 4.3% 8.8%
First Four4.8% 6.2% 4.4%
First Round21.9% 36.8% 18.1%
Second Round10.1% 17.8% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 4.8% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 20.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 36 - 12
Quad 35 - 211 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 119-61 99.6%    1 - 0 +30.5 +12.3 +8.7
  Nov 13, 2021 199   St. Peter's W 91-70 88%     2 - 0 +16.2 +13.4 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 74-76 23%     2 - 1 +13.3 +8.4 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2021 329   Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-74 96%     3 - 1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 333   St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-70 97%     4 - 1 -8.1 -6.8 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2021 253   NJIT W 77-68 OT 92%     5 - 1 +1.0 -8.6 +8.1
  Dec 03, 2021 9   Kansas L 77-86 20%    
  Dec 05, 2021 246   Fordham W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 09, 2021 134   Monmouth W 85-77 78%    
  Dec 12, 2021 99   Colgate W 86-80 69%    
  Dec 18, 2021 213   Pittsburgh W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 20, 2021 27   @ Seton Hall L 73-82 22%    
  Dec 23, 2021 104   Butler W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 29, 2021 69   Marquette W 84-80 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 05, 2022 100   DePaul W 84-78 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 55   @ Providence L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 12, 2022 13   @ Connecticut L 73-83 17%    
  Jan 16, 2022 139   Georgetown W 83-74 78%    
  Jan 19, 2022 87   @ Creighton L 77-78 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 27   Seton Hall L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 8   @ Villanova L 70-82 13%    
  Feb 01, 2022 55   Providence W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 104   @ Butler W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2022 8   Villanova L 73-79 28%    
  Feb 13, 2022 13   Connecticut L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 40   @ Xavier L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 23, 2022 87   Creighton W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 27, 2022 100   @ DePaul L 80-81 49%    
  Mar 02, 2022 40   Xavier W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 69   @ Marquette L 81-83 41%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 4.2 1.8 0.3 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.6 1.7 0.1 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.9 1.1 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 3.5 5.4 8.0 10.1 11.9 13.0 12.2 11.0 8.4 6.5 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 86.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 55.0% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 30.7% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
14-6 9.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.1% 99.1% 22.5% 76.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-5 2.2% 98.1% 13.5% 84.7% 6.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8%
14-6 4.0% 93.1% 11.6% 81.4% 7.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 92.2%
13-7 6.5% 78.1% 8.3% 69.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 76.1%
12-8 8.4% 59.3% 5.0% 54.3% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.4 57.1%
11-9 11.0% 35.1% 3.5% 31.7% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.1 32.8%
10-10 12.2% 17.2% 2.6% 14.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.1 14.9%
9-11 13.0% 5.0% 1.7% 3.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.3 3.4%
8-12 11.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.2%
7-13 10.1% 0.9% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.9
5-15 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.4% 3.2% 21.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.1 3.2 3.9 4.1 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.7 21.9%