Indiana
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#30
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#45
Pace68.5#206
Improvement+1.0#85

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot+7.1#18
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#312
Layup/Dunks+6.6#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement+1.4#50

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#17
First Shot+6.0#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#78
Layups/Dunks+0.8#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#45
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement-0.4#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 5.4% 7.4% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 17.0% 21.5% 10.4%
Top 6 Seed 33.1% 40.5% 22.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.8% 79.3% 61.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.0% 77.7% 59.4%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 7.3
.500 or above 95.7% 98.1% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 73.9% 63.7%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.0% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 2.6%
First Four5.1% 4.8% 5.6%
First Round69.6% 77.1% 58.7%
Second Round43.4% 50.2% 33.7%
Sweet Sixteen18.9% 22.7% 13.4%
Elite Eight8.1% 10.0% 5.2%
Final Four3.2% 4.0% 2.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.7% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 10
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 241   Eastern Michigan W 68-62 95%     1 - 0 -1.1 -12.4 +10.8
  Nov 12, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 85-49 98%     2 - 0 +24.6 +4.3 +18.5
  Nov 17, 2021 62   St. John's W 76-74 77%     3 - 0 +6.7 +2.6 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2021 183   Louisiana W 76-44 93%     4 - 0 +27.9 -2.7 +28.4
  Nov 23, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 70-35 96%     5 - 0 +27.2 +2.8 +27.6
  Nov 27, 2021 116   Marshall W 90-79 86%     6 - 0 +11.4 +7.9 +2.6
  Nov 30, 2021 78   @ Syracuse W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 04, 2021 109   Nebraska W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 08, 2021 31   @ Wisconsin L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 12, 2021 238   Merrimack W 70-51 96%    
  Dec 18, 2021 64   Notre Dame W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 195   Northern Kentucky W 75-58 94%    
  Dec 29, 2021 268   UNC Asheville W 79-58 97%    
  Jan 02, 2022 68   @ Penn St. W 64-62 57%    
  Jan 06, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 09, 2022 82   Minnesota W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 17, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 2   Purdue L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 23, 2022 16   Michigan W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 26, 2022 68   Penn St. W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 53   @ Maryland W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 33   Illinois W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2022 42   @ Northwestern L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 21   @ Michigan St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 15, 2022 31   Wisconsin W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 24, 2022 53   Maryland W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 27, 2022 82   @ Minnesota W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 02, 2022 98   Rutgers W 69-59 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 66-76 19%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 3.2 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.3 0.2 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.5 1.4 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.3 5.1 1.9 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.5 0.3 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.1 0.3 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.0 0.6 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.6 10.5 12.6 13.0 12.0 10.5 8.9 6.0 3.7 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 81.4% 1.4    0.9 0.5
16-4 52.8% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.2
15-5 24.0% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.1
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.0% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.8 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.9% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 4.8 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.5% 99.2% 8.8% 90.5% 6.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 12.0% 97.3% 5.4% 91.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.1%
11-9 13.0% 92.1% 2.4% 89.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.0 91.9%
10-10 12.6% 77.1% 1.5% 75.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.9 76.7%
9-11 10.5% 45.3% 1.2% 44.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.1 5.7 44.6%
8-12 7.6% 18.8% 0.8% 18.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.2 18.1%
7-13 5.4% 4.2% 0.4% 3.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 3.9%
6-14 3.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.3%
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 71.8% 6.0% 65.8% 6.7 2.0 3.4 5.1 6.4 7.6 8.5 9.3 8.5 7.4 6.0 5.3 2.1 0.2 28.2 70.0%