Preseason Rankings
Indiana
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 10.2% 10.6% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 20.3% 21.0% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 37.7% 38.9% 7.3%
Top 6 Seed 51.8% 53.3% 15.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.1% 75.5% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.2% 71.8% 33.5%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 7.2
.500 or above 87.3% 88.6% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 78.5% 48.7%
Conference Champion 18.6% 19.2% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.5% 6.2%
First Four2.9% 2.9% 3.3%
First Round72.8% 74.3% 36.0%
Second Round56.0% 57.4% 20.8%
Sweet Sixteen33.2% 34.2% 8.3%
Elite Eight17.9% 18.5% 3.9%
Final Four9.3% 9.7% 1.7%
Championship Game4.6% 4.7% 0.6%
National Champion2.2% 2.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 34 - 015 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 187   Morehead St. W 76-57 96%    
  Nov 10, 2022 353   Bethune-Cookman W 86-51 99.9%   
  Nov 18, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 20, 2022 269   Miami (OH) W 83-62 96%    
  Nov 23, 2022 261   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 25, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 77-50 99%    
  Nov 30, 2022 2   North Carolina L 75-76 48%    
  Dec 03, 2022 43   @ Rutgers W 68-66 55%    
  Dec 07, 2022 98   Nebraska W 82-69 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 12   Arizona L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 17, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 20, 2022 302   Elon W 82-55 99%    
  Dec 23, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 82-60 96%    
  Jan 05, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 08, 2023 85   Northwestern W 76-64 82%    
  Jan 11, 2023 66   @ Penn St. W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 14, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 19, 2023 18   @ Illinois L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 22, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 25, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 28, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 31, 2023 48   @ Maryland W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 24   Purdue W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 07, 2023 43   Rutgers W 71-63 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 15   @ Michigan L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 18   Illinois W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 21, 2023 25   @ Michigan St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 28, 2023 29   Iowa W 80-74 67%    
  Mar 05, 2023 15   Michigan W 73-69 61%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.8 4.8 4.2 2.4 0.9 18.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.6 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.4 6.4 7.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 9.8 9.6 7.8 6.3 4.5 2.4 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.8% 2.4    2.3 0.1
18-2 94.1% 4.2    3.6 0.6 0.0
17-3 75.7% 4.8    3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.7% 3.8    1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.4% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 12.7 4.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.4% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.3% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.9 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.8% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 2.6 1.5 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.6% 99.9% 16.1% 83.8% 3.4 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.8% 99.3% 13.6% 85.7% 4.5 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 10.1% 98.0% 11.5% 86.5% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.7%
12-8 9.4% 92.9% 9.9% 82.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.1%
11-9 8.7% 78.4% 7.6% 70.8% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 76.6%
10-10 7.9% 59.1% 6.9% 52.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 56.1%
9-11 6.4% 28.9% 3.8% 25.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 26.0%
8-12 5.4% 11.1% 4.2% 6.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 7.2%
7-13 4.0% 4.3% 3.4% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8 1.0%
6-14 2.9% 3.7% 3.5% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8 0.3%
5-15 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
4-16 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.1% 12.9% 61.2% 4.9 10.2 10.1 9.2 8.1 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.2 3.8 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 25.9 70.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4