Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#136
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#93
Pace57.5#361
Improvement+0.2#54

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#202
First Shot+3.6#77
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#361
Layup/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#101
Freethrows-2.0#299
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot+7.7#21
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#354
Layups/Dunks+7.3#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#347
Freethrows+7.7#1
Improvement+0.2#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 27.8% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 2.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 12.3 13.6
.500 or above 79.5% 93.3% 74.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 93.5% 84.0%
Conference Champion 23.3% 33.3% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
First Round18.7% 27.3% 15.7%
Second Round2.9% 5.6% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 8
Quad 410 - 315 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 18   @ Duke L 44-71 8%     0 - 1 -8.8 -12.0 -1.4
  Nov 23, 2022 195   @ Campbell W 64-43 53%     1 - 1 +22.5 +3.0 +22.8
  Nov 30, 2022 45   @ UAB L 61-80 16%     1 - 2 -5.9 -7.4 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2022 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-61 26%    
  Dec 10, 2022 138   @ UNC Wilmington L 57-60 40%    
  Dec 17, 2022 306   Charleston Southern W 72-58 89%    
  Dec 20, 2022 316   @ Louisiana Monroe W 67-58 78%    
  Dec 27, 2022 77   @ Notre Dame L 58-66 25%    
  Dec 31, 2022 101   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-66 31%    
  Jan 02, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 65-56 78%    
  Jan 05, 2023 203   @ Stetson W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 07, 2023 163   Lipscomb W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 12, 2023 215   @ Kennesaw St. W 64-62 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 62-59 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 126   Liberty W 61-59 59%    
  Jan 21, 2023 243   Queens W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 26, 2023 325   @ North Alabama W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 28, 2023 319   @ Central Arkansas W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 02, 2023 245   North Florida W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 04, 2023 245   @ North Florida W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 203   Stetson W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 101   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 277   @ Austin Peay W 61-56 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 163   @ Lipscomb L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 22, 2023 233   Bellarmine W 64-55 79%    
  Feb 24, 2023 247   Eastern Kentucky W 69-59 79%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 4.8 6.8 5.8 2.9 1.0 23.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.7 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.1 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.5 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.6 7.9 9.6 12.1 13.1 12.7 11.8 9.3 6.1 2.9 1.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.6% 2.9    2.8 0.1
16-2 95.1% 5.8    4.8 1.0 0.0
15-3 73.1% 6.8    4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.5% 4.8    2.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.1% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.3% 23.3 15.1 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 76.4% 60.3% 16.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 40.6%
17-1 2.9% 59.3% 51.8% 7.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 15.6%
16-2 6.1% 47.1% 44.4% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 3.2 4.8%
15-3 9.3% 33.7% 33.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 6.2 0.5%
14-4 11.8% 26.5% 26.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 8.7
13-5 12.7% 20.8% 20.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.1
12-6 13.1% 15.5% 15.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.0 11.1
11-7 12.1% 11.7% 11.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 10.6
10-8 9.6% 8.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 8.8
9-9 7.9% 5.5% 5.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.5
8-10 5.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.4
7-11 3.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 18.7% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.9 5.7 4.1 2.1 1.3 80.7 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 95.2% 5.5 1.2 16.9 36.1 24.1 8.4 8.4