Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#161
Pace64.0#300
Improvement+0.0#141

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#116
First Shot+3.8#70
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#293
Layup/Dunks+2.9#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#21
Freethrows-2.7#329
Improvement+0.0#150

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#152
First Shot-2.7#260
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#18
Layups/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement+0.0#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.8% 20.2% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 92.7% 93.3% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 92.6% 82.2%
Conference Champion 25.3% 25.7% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round19.5% 19.9% 8.8%
Second Round2.8% 2.9% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 59-95 7%     0 - 1 -16.4 -5.6 -9.4
  Nov 14, 2022 269   NC Central W 79-63 86%     1 - 1 +7.5 +7.8 +0.7
  Nov 18, 2022 109   Southern Miss L 72-76 57%     1 - 2 -2.9 +6.2 -9.4
  Nov 22, 2022 90   Northwestern L 52-66 39%     1 - 3 -8.2 -9.2 +0.0
  Nov 23, 2022 115   Bradley W 55-44 46%     2 - 3 +14.8 -2.0 +19.3
  Nov 26, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 80-53 97%     3 - 3 +7.6 +3.2 +6.5
  Dec 02, 2022 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-55 97%    
  Dec 12, 2022 105   @ Oral Roberts L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 17, 2022 111   Bryant L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 19, 2022 242   Grambling St. W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 29, 2022 233   @ Bellarmine W 67-63 62%    
  Jan 02, 2023 163   Lipscomb W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 05, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 08, 2023 247   @ Eastern Kentucky W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2023 325   North Alabama W 78-62 93%    
  Jan 14, 2023 319   Central Arkansas W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 19, 2023 136   @ Jacksonville L 59-61 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 245   @ North Florida W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 26, 2023 203   Stetson W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 28, 2023 101   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 02, 2023 277   @ Austin Peay W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 163   @ Lipscomb L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 233   Bellarmine W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 247   Eastern Kentucky W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 16, 2023 215   @ Kennesaw St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 243   @ Queens W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 24, 2023 243   Queens W 75-65 81%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 5.1 7.4 6.6 3.1 0.9 25.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.3 6.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 6.6 5.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.1 0.9 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.3 11.7 14.3 15.2 13.4 10.6 7.3 3.1 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.3% 3.1    2.9 0.2
16-2 90.7% 6.6    5.3 1.3 0.1
15-3 69.8% 7.4    4.5 2.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.2% 5.1    2.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.5% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.3% 25.3 16.0 7.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 65.6% 51.7% 13.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 28.8%
17-1 3.1% 48.1% 45.7% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 4.5%
16-2 7.3% 37.7% 37.5% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.5 0.4%
15-3 10.6% 32.5% 32.4% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 7.1 0.1%
14-4 13.4% 25.4% 25.4% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.0
13-5 15.2% 19.7% 19.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 12.2
12-6 14.3% 15.0% 15.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 12.2
11-7 11.7% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 10.3
10-8 9.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.5
9-9 6.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.9
8-10 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.8
7-11 2.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.8% 19.6% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.3 5.9 3.0 0.9 80.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 87.2% 7.8 0.6 8.3 14.1 17.9 16.0 14.1 7.1 7.1 0.6 1.3