North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#282
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#292
Pace70.2#117
Improvement-0.5#253

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#151
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks-2.2#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#12
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement+0.5#90

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#350
First Shot-4.7#317
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#350
Layups/Dunks-5.3#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#88
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement-1.0#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.1% 14.1% 2.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 3.1% 12.5%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 13   @ Gonzaga L 63-104 2%     0 - 1 -23.4 -12.5 -5.5
  Nov 11, 2022 102   @ Washington L 67-75 11%     0 - 2 -0.9 -2.8 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 72-66 84%     1 - 2 -11.1 -14.1 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2022 126   @ Duquesne L 82-83 14%     1 - 3 +4.1 +14.0 -10.0
  Nov 23, 2022 32   @ Kentucky L 56-96 3%     1 - 4 -25.0 -12.2 -11.7
  Dec 03, 2022 304   @ High Point L 88-93 44%     1 - 5 -10.0 +3.5 -13.0
  Dec 06, 2022 1   @ Houston L 42-76 1%     1 - 6 -11.8 -12.6 -4.5
  Dec 10, 2022 354   Bethune-Cookman W 88-48 83%     2 - 6 +23.2 +1.0 +20.0
  Dec 17, 2022 64   @ Pittsburgh L 56-82 6%     2 - 7 -14.9 -10.3 -5.2
  Dec 22, 2022 354   @ Bethune-Cookman W 87-85 68%     3 - 7 -9.3 -0.9 -8.6
  Dec 31, 2022 315   Austin Peay W 90-85 OT 67%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -5.9 +6.8 -13.1
  Jan 02, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 62-68 23%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -4.7 -8.4 +3.1
  Jan 05, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. W 89-86 33%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +1.1 +17.7 -16.4
  Jan 07, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 57-82 19%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -22.2 -17.1 -4.2
  Jan 12, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-72 34%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -11.3 -5.9 -6.2
  Jan 14, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-86 17%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -10.4 +2.8 -13.6
  Jan 19, 2023 221   Queens W 95-90 46%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -0.5 +15.6 -16.0
  Jan 21, 2023 70   Liberty L 62-73 13%     6 - 12 3 - 5 -5.6 -2.4 -4.0
  Jan 26, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas L 85-88 OT 56%     6 - 13 3 - 6 -11.2 -5.0 -5.8
  Jan 28, 2023 291   @ North Alabama L 78-91 41%     6 - 14 3 - 7 -17.2 +6.7 -24.9
  Feb 02, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 04, 2023 197   Jacksonville L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 09, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 199   Stetson L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 16, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 73-81 22%    
  Feb 18, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 24, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 1.3 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.3 0.3 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 5.2 3.6 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 4.4 9.3 1.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.4 5.7 14.7 5.1 0.1 26.0 11th
12th 0.1 3.7 12.0 6.4 0.4 22.6 12th
13th 1.4 6.0 4.1 0.4 0.0 11.9 13th
14th 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 14th
Total 2.9 11.4 22.1 26.3 20.9 11.2 4.0 1.0 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-10 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.2
7-11 20.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.9
6-12 26.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 26.2
5-13 22.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.1
4-14 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 2.9%