Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#101
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#65
Pace69.6#152
Improvement+0.2#44

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#78
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#44
Layup/Dunks-3.2#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#24
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement+0.1#69

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#146
First Shot-0.8#205
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#59
Layups/Dunks-1.2#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+0.1#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 34.4% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 99.1% 99.5% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 97.8% 94.6%
Conference Champion 43.3% 44.8% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round32.8% 34.0% 24.7%
Second Round6.0% 6.4% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 37 - 6
Quad 415 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 73   @ USC W 74-61 29%     1 - 0 +23.6 +6.5 +16.8
  Nov 09, 2022 179   @ San Diego L 73-79 59%     1 - 1 -3.5 -2.6 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2022 5   @ Tennessee L 50-81 7%     1 - 2 -9.5 -3.9 -8.0
  Nov 21, 2022 237   Northern Kentucky W 82-61 80%     2 - 2 +17.1 +9.5 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2022 173   Drexel W 67-59 69%     3 - 2 +7.8 -0.5 +9.0
  Nov 23, 2022 281   UMKC W 73-59 85%     4 - 2 +7.9 +10.4 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2022 292   @ Georgia Southern W 70-53 80%     5 - 2 +13.0 +5.8 +9.5
  Dec 04, 2022 241   Florida International W 83-71 87%    
  Dec 07, 2022 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-75 28%    
  Dec 10, 2022 200   Mercer W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 16, 2022 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 21, 2022 293   Canisius W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 31, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 66-60 69%    
  Jan 02, 2023 319   @ Central Arkansas W 84-72 86%    
  Jan 05, 2023 277   @ Austin Peay W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 07, 2023 245   North Florida W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 12, 2023 247   @ Eastern Kentucky W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 233   @ Bellarmine W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 19, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 215   Kennesaw St. W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 26, 2023 243   @ Queens W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 28, 2023 126   @ Liberty L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 02, 2023 319   Central Arkansas W 87-69 94%    
  Feb 04, 2023 325   North Alabama W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 09, 2023 245   @ North Florida W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 11, 2023 136   @ Jacksonville L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 15, 2023 203   @ Stetson W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 203   Stetson W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 22, 2023 163   Lipscomb W 81-73 74%    
  Feb 24, 2023 277   Austin Peay W 75-61 89%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.7 8.0 12.1 11.7 6.6 1.9 43.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.3 7.6 3.9 0.7 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.3 4.8 1.5 0.2 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.9 8.1 11.9 15.5 17.1 16.1 12.4 6.7 1.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 99.2% 6.6    6.4 0.3
16-2 94.1% 11.7    10.0 1.6 0.1
15-3 75.0% 12.1    8.3 3.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.5% 8.0    3.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.1% 2.7    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.3% 43.3 30.5 9.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 80.5% 68.2% 12.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 38.6%
17-1 6.7% 62.4% 55.0% 7.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.5 16.6%
16-2 12.4% 50.1% 47.8% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.2 4.5%
15-3 16.1% 40.0% 39.7% 0.3% 12.7 0.3 2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 9.7 0.5%
14-4 17.1% 33.4% 33.3% 0.1% 13.0 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.1 11.4 0.1%
13-5 15.5% 26.8% 26.8% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.2 11.4
12-6 11.9% 21.0% 21.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
11-7 8.1% 17.3% 17.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 6.7
10-8 4.9% 13.3% 13.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.3
9-9 2.8% 7.0% 7.0% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
8-10 1.5% 7.3% 7.3% 15.4 0.1 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.2% 32.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 3.2 9.3 11.2 6.2 1.5 0.2 66.8 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 97.0% 6.6 0.9 0.4 9.8 18.7 22.1 16.2 13.2 8.5 4.7 2.6