Duke
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#18
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#26
Pace67.1#225
Improvement-0.3#265

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#23
First Shot+3.7#73
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#17
Layup/Dunks+3.9#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#242
Freethrows+2.5#42
Improvement-0.3#327

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#27
First Shot+6.3#32
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#78
Layups/Dunks-0.6#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#60
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement+0.0#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 11.6% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 34.9% 36.2% 13.2%
Top 6 Seed 61.5% 62.9% 37.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 94.7% 85.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 93.5% 83.0%
Average Seed 5.6 5.5 7.0
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.5% 88.4%
Conference Champion 24.8% 25.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 4.6%
First Round93.4% 94.0% 83.8%
Second Round67.8% 68.7% 50.8%
Sweet Sixteen34.9% 35.7% 21.2%
Elite Eight16.2% 16.7% 8.0%
Final Four7.4% 7.7% 2.7%
Championship Game3.1% 3.2% 0.8%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.4%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 26 - 111 - 8
Quad 35 - 016 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 136   Jacksonville W 71-44 92%     1 - 0 +26.4 +12.2 +18.8
  Nov 11, 2022 349   South Carolina Upstate W 84-38 99%     2 - 0 +29.8 -2.3 +30.7
  Nov 15, 2022 20   Kansas L 64-69 51%     2 - 1 +9.8 -2.4 +12.4
  Nov 18, 2022 176   Delaware W 92-58 95%     3 - 1 +30.8 +13.9 +16.1
  Nov 21, 2022 233   Bellarmine W 74-57 97%     4 - 1 +10.3 +11.5 +2.5
  Nov 24, 2022 217   Oregon St. W 54-51 95%     5 - 1 -0.1 -6.0 +6.7
  Nov 25, 2022 27   Xavier W 71-64 58%     6 - 1 +20.0 +6.2 +14.3
  Nov 27, 2022 3   Purdue L 56-75 33%     6 - 2 +0.7 -5.0 +4.3
  Nov 30, 2022 23   Ohio St. W 81-72 65%     7 - 2 +20.1 +9.6 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2022 151   Boston College W 73-56 95%    
  Dec 06, 2022 24   Iowa W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 10, 2022 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-50 99.9%   
  Dec 20, 2022 66   @ Wake Forest W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 31, 2022 188   Florida St. W 80-61 96%    
  Jan 04, 2023 31   @ North Carolina St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 07, 2023 151   @ Boston College W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 11, 2023 106   Pittsburgh W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 14, 2023 76   @ Clemson W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 21, 2023 36   Miami (FL) W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 23, 2023 59   @ Virginia Tech W 68-65 63%    
  Jan 28, 2023 113   @ Georgia Tech W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 31, 2023 66   Wake Forest W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 22   North Carolina W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 06, 2023 36   @ Miami (FL) W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 14   @ Virginia L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 14, 2023 77   Notre Dame W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 18, 2023 97   @ Syracuse W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 20, 2023 210   Louisville W 77-56 97%    
  Feb 25, 2023 59   Virginia Tech W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 28, 2023 31   North Carolina St. W 78-72 69%    
  Mar 04, 2023 22   @ North Carolina L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.8 7.3 6.1 2.6 0.6 24.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 8.3 7.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.9 5.2 1.2 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.8 9.1 12.6 14.7 16.1 14.7 10.9 6.8 2.6 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.2% 2.6    2.5 0.1
18-2 89.1% 6.1    5.0 1.1 0.0
17-3 67.2% 7.3    4.6 2.4 0.3
16-4 39.7% 5.8    2.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.8% 2.1    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.8% 24.8 15.6 7.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.6% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.8% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 2.3 1.5 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.9% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 3.1 0.7 2.3 4.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.7% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 4.2 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.1 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.1% 99.9% 18.3% 81.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 5.4 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.7% 99.4% 16.5% 82.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 4.5 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 12.6% 97.9% 14.4% 83.5% 7.4 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.5%
12-8 9.1% 92.8% 12.8% 80.0% 8.4 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 91.8%
11-9 5.8% 81.2% 10.0% 71.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 79.2%
10-10 3.1% 59.1% 9.3% 49.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 54.8%
9-11 1.7% 27.2% 6.9% 20.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 21.8%
8-12 0.8% 12.4% 9.7% 2.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0%
7-13 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.3% 19.0% 75.2% 5.6 3.9 7.2 10.6 13.2 13.5 13.0 10.8 8.8 6.2 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 92.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 68.3 30.7 1.0