College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#81
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#22
Pace82.2#6
Improvement+0.6#4

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#33
First Shot+4.9#50
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#85
Layup/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#72
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+0.3#27

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#175
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#231
Layups/Dunks-1.1#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#50
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement+0.3#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.8% 48.5% 34.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.9% 12.9% 3.8%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 99.1%
Conference Champion 49.9% 52.1% 41.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.7% 2.0%
First Round43.5% 45.9% 33.4%
Second Round11.1% 12.1% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 23 - 13 - 2
Quad 38 - 211 - 4
Quad 414 - 125 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 149   Chattanooga W 85-78 79%     1 - 0 +5.3 +4.6 +0.1
  Nov 11, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 86-102 16%     1 - 1 +1.2 +12.2 -9.7
  Nov 14, 2022 100   Richmond W 92-90 OT 68%     2 - 1 +3.9 +7.7 -4.0
  Nov 17, 2022 116   Davidson W 89-66 72%     3 - 1 +23.8 +13.6 +10.2
  Nov 18, 2022 72   Colorado St. W 74-64 58%     4 - 1 +14.6 +2.6 +11.8
  Nov 20, 2022 59   Virginia Tech W 77-75 54%     5 - 1 +7.7 +2.6 +5.1
  Nov 23, 2022 54   Kent St. W 74-72 51%     6 - 1 +8.3 +7.3 +1.0
  Nov 29, 2022 147   Old Dominion W 75-60 78%     7 - 1 +13.4 +7.1 +7.3
  Dec 03, 2022 270   @ The Citadel W 86-77 81%    
  Dec 06, 2022 322   @ Presbyterian W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 14, 2022 203   Stetson W 87-76 85%    
  Dec 19, 2022 240   @ Coastal Carolina W 82-74 76%    
  Dec 29, 2022 334   Hampton W 94-72 98%    
  Dec 31, 2022 118   @ Towson L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 04, 2023 274   @ N.C. A&T W 85-76 80%    
  Jan 07, 2023 176   Delaware W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 11, 2023 138   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 346   Elon W 91-68 98%    
  Jan 16, 2023 287   William & Mary W 88-72 93%    
  Jan 19, 2023 329   @ Monmouth W 87-72 91%    
  Jan 21, 2023 257   @ Northeastern W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 28, 2023 131   Hofstra W 88-81 74%    
  Feb 02, 2023 173   @ Drexel W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 04, 2023 176   @ Delaware W 83-79 64%    
  Feb 08, 2023 138   UNC Wilmington W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 334   @ Hampton W 91-75 92%    
  Feb 13, 2023 257   Northeastern W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 16, 2023 346   @ Elon W 88-71 93%    
  Feb 23, 2023 118   Towson W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 343   Stony Brook W 90-68 98%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.0 13.2 16.3 11.0 3.8 49.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 9.0 6.3 1.3 0.0 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 6.1 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.2 0.3 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.5 8.4 13.5 17.7 19.9 17.6 11.1 3.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.8    3.8
17-1 99.7% 11.0    10.6 0.4
16-2 92.5% 16.3    12.9 3.3 0.1
15-3 66.1% 13.2    6.6 5.4 1.0 0.1
14-4 28.2% 5.0    1.3 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.9% 49.9 35.2 11.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.8% 92.6% 66.3% 26.2% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 78.0%
17-1 11.1% 77.9% 57.3% 20.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 2.4 48.3%
16-2 17.6% 61.6% 49.4% 12.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.4 5.0 0.7 0.0 6.8 24.0%
15-3 19.9% 47.0% 42.1% 4.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.7 1.4 0.1 10.5 8.4%
14-4 17.7% 36.4% 35.1% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.4 3.8 2.0 0.2 11.2 2.0%
13-5 13.5% 29.1% 28.9% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.6 0.3%
12-6 8.4% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.5 0.0%
11-7 4.5% 19.6% 19.6% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.6
10-8 2.1% 11.9% 11.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-9 0.9% 11.0% 11.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.4% 9.2% 9.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.8% 39.1% 6.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 3.0 10.5 18.5 7.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 54.2 10.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 97.2% 6.2 0.3 0.2 2.8 14.2 17.9 27.2 13.8 8.5 6.7 3.2 2.0 0.5