New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#104
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#152
Pace74.1#67
Improvement+0.3#25

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot+3.6#78
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#123
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#7
Freethrows-2.7#327
Improvement+0.5#1

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#174
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#93
Layups/Dunks+4.6#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
Freethrows-4.6#352
Improvement-0.2#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 25.0% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 4.3% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.4 11.9 13.2
.500 or above 71.3% 84.5% 60.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 90.7% 82.5%
Conference Champion 18.4% 23.6% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 1.7%
First Round18.4% 24.0% 13.8%
Second Round4.0% 6.0% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 47 - 115 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 189   @ UTEP L 64-67 60%     0 - 1 -1.0 -7.2 +6.3
  Nov 25, 2022 179   San Diego W 90-77 69%     1 - 1 +12.5 +10.2 +1.6
  Nov 26, 2022 49   UC Irvine L 68-85 31%     1 - 2 -7.3 +4.1 -11.5
  Nov 30, 2022 189   UTEP W 95-70 79%     2 - 2 +21.0 +18.3 +1.5
  Dec 03, 2022 57   New Mexico L 80-82 45%    
  Dec 07, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara L 77-80 38%    
  Dec 11, 2022 130   @ Duquesne L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 14, 2022 32   @ St. Mary's L 62-73 16%    
  Dec 21, 2022 54   Kent St. L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 29, 2022 183   Southern Utah W 87-79 77%    
  Dec 31, 2022 63   Sam Houston St. L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 04, 2023 168   @ Stephen F. Austin W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 160   California Baptist W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 12, 2023 114   @ Seattle L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 14, 2023 291   Texas Arlington W 76-61 90%    
  Jan 19, 2023 183   @ Southern Utah W 84-82 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 246   @ Utah Tech W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 28, 2023 182   @ Utah Valley W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 02, 2023 168   Stephen F. Austin W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 114   Seattle W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 128   @ Grand Canyon L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 160   @ California Baptist W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 15, 2023 226   Abilene Christian W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 18, 2023 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-74 92%    
  Feb 22, 2023 128   Grand Canyon W 71-66 67%    
  Mar 01, 2023 226   @ Abilene Christian W 80-75 67%    
  Mar 03, 2023 135   @ Tarleton St. L 75-76 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.6 4.4 2.3 0.6 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.3 6.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 4.3 1.5 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.2 4.0 0.9 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 6.0 8.3 10.8 12.5 13.6 12.9 11.5 8.6 5.0 2.3 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.5% 2.3    2.1 0.2
16-2 88.5% 4.4    3.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 65.2% 5.6    3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 33.8% 3.9    1.5 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 11.2% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 11.2 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 84.2% 52.1% 32.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 66.9%
17-1 2.3% 68.6% 50.3% 18.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 36.8%
16-2 5.0% 49.2% 37.4% 11.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 18.7%
15-3 8.6% 37.5% 32.1% 5.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.4 8.0%
14-4 11.5% 27.2% 25.8% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.4 1.9%
13-5 12.9% 20.6% 20.2% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 10.3 0.5%
12-6 13.6% 15.5% 15.5% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.5
11-7 12.5% 11.8% 11.8% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.0
10-8 10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 9.8
9-9 8.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.8
8-10 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.7
7-11 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 2.3
5-13 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.2% 17.3% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.0 5.3 4.0 2.1 1.5 1.3 80.8 2.3%