Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#282
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#237
Pace69.4#140
Improvement+1.6#21

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#277
First Shot-1.5#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#306
Layup/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#222
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.4#20

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#269
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#359
Layups/Dunks-0.7#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#193
Freethrows-0.2#203
Improvement+0.1#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 3.7% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.1% 57.6% 26.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 31 - 73 - 13
Quad 48 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 45   @ Northwestern L 46-63 5%     0 - 1 -3.9 -13.6 +8.0
  Nov 17, 2022 158   @ Georgia Tech L 50-68 18%     0 - 2 -14.7 -21.2 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2022 77   Sam Houston St. L 54-88 11%     0 - 3 -27.0 -15.0 -11.0
  Nov 23, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 86-61 87%     1 - 3 +6.6 +2.9 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2022 165   @ Northern Iowa L 76-83 19%     1 - 4 -4.1 +0.6 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2022 345   @ Eastern Illinois W 90-70 60%     2 - 4 +10.9 +13.2 -2.5
  Dec 02, 2022 309   @ Idaho L 47-84 46%     2 - 5 -42.4 -32.1 -10.0
  Dec 12, 2022 13   @ Gonzaga L 67-88 2%     2 - 6 -3.5 +2.6 -7.0
  Dec 17, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-90 7%     2 - 7 -17.2 -7.4 -7.3
  Dec 20, 2022 336   Albany L 78-83 75%     2 - 8 -18.3 -7.3 -10.7
  Dec 22, 2022 124   @ Indiana St. W 67-57 14%     3 - 8 +15.2 -4.4 +19.4
  Jan 03, 2023 113   @ Akron L 51-76 13%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -19.2 -16.1 -4.2
  Jan 07, 2023 171   @ Buffalo L 62-80 19%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -15.2 -7.0 -8.8
  Jan 10, 2023 300   Central Michigan W 73-54 65%     4 - 10 1 - 2 +8.6 -0.2 +9.3
  Jan 14, 2023 103   Toledo L 67-84 22%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -15.2 -12.3 -2.5
  Jan 17, 2023 299   @ Miami (OH) W 81-77 44%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -1.0 +1.4 -2.5
  Jan 21, 2023 315   @ Eastern Michigan W 88-67 48%     6 - 11 3 - 3 +15.2 +9.8 +5.3
  Jan 24, 2023 72   Kent St. W 86-76 15%     7 - 11 4 - 3 +14.6 +19.4 -4.7
  Jan 28, 2023 166   Ball St. L 69-87 35%     7 - 12 4 - 4 -20.5 -3.7 -17.6
  Jan 31, 2023 273   @ Western Michigan L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 04, 2023 238   @ Bowling Green L 73-78 30%    
  Feb 07, 2023 142   Ohio L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 273   Western Michigan W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 14, 2023 166   @ Ball St. L 68-77 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 299   Miami (OH) W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 21, 2023 142   @ Ohio L 68-79 16%    
  Feb 25, 2023 300   @ Central Michigan L 68-69 43%    
  Feb 28, 2023 171   Buffalo L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 03, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 78-73 67%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.4 4.4 5.9 1.4 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.3 4.7 9.4 2.5 0.1 16.9 6th
7th 0.1 4.1 12.0 5.0 0.3 21.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 10.9 6.6 0.5 20.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.6 5.0 0.4 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 2.5 0.3 5.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 11th
12th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.7 4.3 12.2 20.6 24.1 19.7 11.7 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 1.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.0
10-8 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.6
9-9 19.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 19.7
8-10 24.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.0
7-11 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
6-12 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%