Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#98
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#120
Pace70.9#125
Improvement+0.0#117

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#100
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#229
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+0.0#157

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
First Shot+6.6#31
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#353
Layups/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#211
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement+0.0#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 18.2% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.6
.500 or above 85.6% 87.7% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 89.7% 66.7%
Conference Champion 27.1% 28.9% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.0%
First Round16.9% 17.6% 10.0%
Second Round3.7% 4.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 36 - 49 - 10
Quad 49 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 46   @ Saint Louis L 68-91 22%     0 - 1 -10.0 -4.6 -4.2
  Nov 17, 2022 56   Texas A&M W 88-79 34%     1 - 1 +18.2 +11.8 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2022 99   Massachusetts L 69-71 50%     1 - 2 +3.0 -2.0 +5.0
  Nov 20, 2022 169   Tulsa W 77-60 69%     2 - 2 +16.9 -0.9 +16.8
  Nov 26, 2022 149   @ Chattanooga L 66-69 53%     2 - 3 +1.3 -0.8 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2022 280   Illinois St. W 75-61 91%    
  Dec 04, 2022 276   @ Valparaiso W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 10, 2022 233   @ Bellarmine W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 13, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 84-61 99%    
  Dec 16, 2022 277   Austin Peay W 74-60 90%    
  Dec 21, 2022 127   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 29, 2022 120   Southern Illinois W 65-61 65%    
  Jan 01, 2023 315   @ Evansville W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 04, 2023 115   Bradley W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 71   @ Drake L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 10, 2023 174   @ Northern Iowa W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 253   Illinois-Chicago W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 17, 2023 140   @ Belmont L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 133   Indiana St. W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 24, 2023 120   @ Southern Illinois L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 28, 2023 112   Missouri St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 01, 2023 140   Belmont W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 133   @ Indiana St. L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 07, 2023 71   Drake W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 11, 2023 115   @ Bradley L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 15, 2023 280   @ Illinois St. W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 315   Evansville W 75-58 93%    
  Feb 21, 2023 112   @ Missouri St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 26, 2023 276   Valparaiso W 75-61 88%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 6.0 7.3 5.8 3.1 1.4 0.2 27.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 7.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.5 7.7 10.0 12.0 13.3 13.3 11.5 9.0 6.1 3.1 1.4 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
18-2 99.9% 3.1    3.0 0.1
17-3 96.0% 5.8    5.1 0.7
16-4 81.5% 7.3    5.1 2.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 52.4% 6.0    2.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 20.0% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2
13-7 4.2% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 18.3 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 93.6% 43.6% 50.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.7%
19-1 1.4% 77.6% 47.4% 30.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 57.5%
18-2 3.1% 56.0% 40.3% 15.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 26.2%
17-3 6.1% 39.6% 32.7% 6.9% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 10.3%
16-4 9.0% 26.9% 25.7% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 6.6 1.6%
15-5 11.5% 21.4% 21.2% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.0 0.4%
14-6 13.3% 16.7% 16.7% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 11.1
13-7 13.3% 13.7% 13.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.5
12-8 12.0% 11.3% 11.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 10.7
11-9 10.0% 8.1% 8.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 9.2
10-10 7.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.2
9-11 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.2
8-12 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.2
7-13 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
6-14 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.5% 15.9% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.4 4.7 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.6 82.5 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 6.5 11.3 29.0 27.4 14.5 4.8 6.5