Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#120
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#94
Pace61.5#342
Improvement+0.1#76

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#241
First Shot+1.6#122
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#353
Layup/Dunks+4.2#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#105
Freethrows-1.9#292
Improvement+0.0#145

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#44
First Shot+4.6#54
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#95
Layups/Dunks-0.7#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#37
Freethrows+3.4#20
Improvement+0.1#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 17.1% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 3.1% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.6 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 92.5% 97.8% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 83.2% 72.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 16.3% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.6% 1.5% 0.4%
First Round11.3% 16.4% 10.1%
Second Round2.0% 3.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 18.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 48 - 9
Quad 412 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 94-63 93%     1 - 0 +18.2 +10.5 +7.3
  Nov 10, 2022 41   @ Oklahoma St. W 61-60 18%     2 - 0 +14.3 -0.5 +14.9
  Nov 13, 2022 222   @ Southern Indiana L 53-71 64%     2 - 1 -18.2 -18.6 +0.2
  Nov 17, 2022 267   Tennessee St. W 57-44 87%     3 - 1 +4.5 -20.2 +24.7
  Nov 21, 2022 78   UNLV L 49-56 37%     3 - 2 +0.0 -9.6 +8.6
  Nov 23, 2022 160   California Baptist W 64-61 OT 62%     4 - 2 +3.4 -3.3 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2022 315   @ Evansville W 80-53 82%     5 - 2 +20.9 +11.2 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2022 46   @ Saint Louis L 62-71 19%    
  Dec 07, 2022 133   Indiana St. W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 10, 2022 288   Alcorn St. W 69-56 89%    
  Dec 16, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 75-53 98%    
  Dec 19, 2022 344   Alabama A&M W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 21, 2022 234   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 29, 2022 98   @ Murray St. L 61-65 35%    
  Jan 01, 2023 140   Belmont W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 04, 2023 71   Drake L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 07, 2023 174   @ Northern Iowa W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 11, 2023 133   @ Indiana St. L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 14, 2023 280   Illinois St. W 66-53 88%    
  Jan 17, 2023 315   Evansville W 66-50 92%    
  Jan 21, 2023 112   @ Missouri St. L 57-60 38%    
  Jan 24, 2023 98   Murray St. W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 29, 2023 280   @ Illinois St. W 63-56 72%    
  Feb 01, 2023 115   @ Bradley L 58-61 39%    
  Feb 05, 2023 112   Missouri St. W 60-57 59%    
  Feb 08, 2023 253   Illinois-Chicago W 68-57 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 71   @ Drake L 58-65 26%    
  Feb 14, 2023 276   @ Valparaiso W 63-57 71%    
  Feb 19, 2023 115   Bradley W 61-58 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 174   Northern Iowa W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 26, 2023 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 65-60 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.2 2.5 0.3 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.8 0.3 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.2 7.0 9.5 12.6 13.6 13.6 12.8 9.7 6.5 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.2% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 97.0% 1.6    1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 80.8% 3.0    2.1 0.9 0.1
15-5 53.4% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.7% 1.9    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.1 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 76.0% 34.0% 42.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.6%
18-2 0.5% 62.3% 32.1% 30.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 44.4%
17-3 1.7% 49.9% 33.6% 16.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 24.5%
16-4 3.7% 34.1% 27.8% 6.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 8.8%
15-5 6.5% 21.2% 19.9% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 1.6%
14-6 9.7% 18.1% 17.8% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 8.0 0.3%
13-7 12.8% 13.7% 13.6% 0.2% 12.8 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.0 0.2%
12-8 13.6% 10.5% 10.5% 13.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 12.2
11-9 13.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 12.5
10-10 12.6% 6.5% 6.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.8
9-11 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.1
8-12 7.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
7-13 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.0
6-14 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-15 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.6% 10.8% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 88.4 0.9%