Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#46
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#38
Pace72.1#95
Improvement-0.3#276

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#22
First Shot+9.8#8
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#304
Layup/Dunks+6.4#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#199
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement-0.2#246

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#105
First Shot+2.2#111
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#179
Layups/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#246
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement-0.2#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 4.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 9.9% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.3% 64.0% 44.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.8% 49.0% 28.3%
Average Seed 9.3 9.1 10.2
.500 or above 98.9% 99.5% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.9% 93.3%
Conference Champion 43.6% 45.9% 33.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four9.7% 9.9% 8.6%
First Round55.4% 59.0% 39.8%
Second Round25.0% 27.4% 14.6%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 8.4% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.9% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 25 - 36 - 6
Quad 39 - 215 - 8
Quad 47 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 98   Murray St. W 91-68 78%     1 - 0 +25.0 +14.3 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2022 315   Evansville W 83-65 97%     2 - 0 +5.9 +7.3 -1.7
  Nov 15, 2022 30   Memphis W 90-84 51%     3 - 0 +15.8 +13.9 +1.3
  Nov 19, 2022 12   Maryland L 67-95 24%     3 - 1 -10.7 +0.2 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2022 93   Providence W 76-73 67%     4 - 1 +8.5 +6.6 +1.9
  Nov 27, 2022 29   @ Auburn L 60-65 28%     4 - 2 +10.9 -3.3 +14.5
  Nov 30, 2022 267   Tennessee St. W 80-63 95%     5 - 2 +8.5 +6.9 +2.4
  Dec 03, 2022 120   Southern Illinois W 71-62 81%    
  Dec 06, 2022 83   @ Iona W 78-77 52%    
  Dec 10, 2022 61   Boise St. W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 17, 2022 71   Drake W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 21, 2022 227   SIU Edwardsville W 84-67 93%    
  Dec 31, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 04, 2023 99   @ Massachusetts W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 108   St. Bonaventure W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 11, 2023 158   George Mason W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 194   @ George Washington W 82-74 78%    
  Jan 18, 2023 171   @ Loyola Chicago W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 220   La Salle W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 27, 2023 116   @ Davidson W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 31, 2023 177   @ Fordham W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 03, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 07, 2023 180   Rhode Island W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 10, 2023 74   @ Dayton L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 15, 2023 116   Davidson W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 18, 2023 130   Duquesne W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 21, 2023 100   @ Richmond W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 171   Loyola Chicago W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 28, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 04, 2023 74   Dayton W 69-63 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.7 9.8 12.4 10.0 5.5 1.6 43.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 7.6 5.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.8 6.2 9.6 12.6 15.6 16.4 14.7 10.3 5.5 1.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.9% 5.5    5.4 0.1
16-2 97.5% 10.0    9.1 0.9 0.0
15-3 84.4% 12.4    9.0 3.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.5% 9.8    4.8 4.0 0.9 0.1
13-5 23.7% 3.7    0.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.6% 43.6 30.7 9.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 99.2% 51.5% 47.7% 3.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
17-1 5.5% 97.8% 47.4% 50.4% 5.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.8%
16-2 10.3% 94.7% 42.3% 52.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 90.8%
15-3 14.7% 86.3% 35.8% 50.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 3.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 78.7%
14-4 16.4% 73.9% 29.9% 44.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 4.3 62.8%
13-5 15.6% 58.5% 27.1% 31.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.2 1.6 0.1 6.5 43.1%
12-6 12.6% 40.6% 20.8% 19.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.5 0.2 7.5 25.1%
11-7 9.6% 26.8% 16.8% 10.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 12.0%
10-8 6.2% 19.1% 14.9% 4.2% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.9%
9-9 3.8% 12.8% 11.5% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3 1.4%
8-10 2.1% 10.5% 10.3% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.2%
7-11 1.0% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 60.3% 28.1% 32.2% 9.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.9 5.1 8.8 12.2 14.4 6.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 39.7 44.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 2.5 21.5 31.7 27.7 15.3 3.2 0.5