Drake
Missouri Valley
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#73
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#62
Pace66.3#250
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#67
First Shot+7.7#21
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#340
Layup/Dunks-0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#124
Freethrows+2.8#42
Improvement-0.1#286

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#73
First Shot+2.2#115
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#103
Layups/Dunks+0.5#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#149
Freethrows+1.3#119
Improvement+0.1#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.0% 39.2% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.1% 11.8% 2.9%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 12.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 96.4% 84.3%
Conference Champion 41.6% 43.3% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 1.5%
First Round35.9% 37.0% 22.5%
Second Round11.2% 11.7% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 39 - 312 - 7
Quad 410 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 359   IUPUI W 80-48 99%     1 - 0 +12.1 -6.4 +17.5
  Nov 14, 2022 162   Wofford W 80-72 83%     2 - 0 +5.3 +8.7 -2.6
  Nov 18, 2022 190   Buffalo W 80-72 80%     3 - 0 +6.9 +6.0 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2022 148   Wyoming W 61-56 73%     4 - 0 +6.4 -4.3 +11.4
  Nov 21, 2022 134   Tarleton St. W 71-64 69%     5 - 0 +9.5 +2.3 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2022 121   Louisiana W 76-64 76%     6 - 0 +12.4 +2.4 +9.6
  Nov 30, 2022 131   @ Indiana St. L 73-75 58%     6 - 1 +3.6 -3.1 +6.9
  Dec 03, 2022 254   Illinois-Chicago W 77-62 93%    
  Dec 07, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 80-63 95%    
  Dec 10, 2022 99   @ Richmond L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 17, 2022 46   @ Saint Louis L 71-76 31%    
  Dec 20, 2022 26   Mississippi St. L 59-65 30%    
  Dec 29, 2022 278   Valparaiso W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 01, 2023 114   @ Missouri St. W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 117   @ Southern Illinois W 62-61 53%    
  Jan 07, 2023 112   Murray St. W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 10, 2023 254   @ Illinois-Chicago W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 14, 2023 120   Bradley W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 18, 2023 114   Missouri St. W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 24, 2023 131   Indiana St. W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 29, 2023 139   @ Belmont W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 01, 2023 173   Northern Iowa W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 278   @ Valparaiso W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 07, 2023 112   @ Murray St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 117   Southern Illinois W 65-58 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 173   @ Northern Iowa W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 19, 2023 139   Belmont W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 256   Illinois St. W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 26, 2023 120   @ Bradley W 67-66 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.0 9.0 12.1 9.5 4.9 1.4 41.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.5 8.1 5.7 1.9 0.3 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.0 0.3 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.8 0.2 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.3 13.0 15.5 15.2 14.0 9.8 4.9 1.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
18-2 100.0% 4.9    4.8 0.1
17-3 97.0% 9.5    8.8 0.7
16-4 86.1% 12.1    9.1 2.9 0.1
15-5 59.1% 9.0    4.7 3.6 0.7 0.1
14-6 25.7% 4.0    1.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.6% 41.6 29.8 9.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.4% 94.0% 61.6% 32.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.3%
18-2 4.9% 83.1% 52.4% 30.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.8 64.6%
17-3 9.8% 67.7% 45.5% 22.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 3.2 40.7%
16-4 14.0% 55.0% 42.0% 12.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.3 22.3%
15-5 15.2% 41.9% 34.0% 7.9% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 8.8 11.9%
14-6 15.5% 30.9% 28.0% 2.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.7 3.9%
13-7 13.0% 24.3% 23.3% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 9.8 1.4%
12-8 10.3% 19.1% 18.9% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.3 0.2%
11-9 7.1% 15.6% 15.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.0
10-10 4.4% 12.9% 12.9% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.8
9-11 2.3% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
8-12 1.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.6% 7.0% 7.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.0% 30.3% 7.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.3 3.9 9.8 11.7 5.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 62.0 11.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.6 1.9 19.2 30.8 23.1 15.4 9.6